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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. The track of the main low and dynamics would lead to a 'meh' to 'okay' setup. We'd need to see a few hours of at least partly sunny skies to realize the better potential.
  2. Friday screams flooding to me. Could be an interesting day.
  3. Yup...winds picking up here ahead of it in Baltimore. Feels great outside.
  4. Just not enough instability to get the rotations to stick. It's <800j/kg regionwide. Probably the only thing preventing a boom scenario.
  5. Storm along frederick/moco boundary and in Loudoun County trying to go spinny?
  6. Meso for heavy rain potential: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=126&yr=2019
  7. For the 2nd batch tonight, you need to look towards SW VA or S-Central WV. If that line goes boom and you start seeing a ton of reports coming out of it then we're set for an interesting night.
  8. That's my cell to watch. If there's one that could overperform...it's that or the chesterfield storm.
  9. Everything in this initial batch is game for a spinny. Line to our west looks really linear, more QLCS / straight line wind threat. just stepped outside my house and it's got that nice humid feel.
  10. SVR for Frederick / Carroll MD for possible TOR / wind.
  11. Red Box until 07:00z monday: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0067.html
  12. I guess there's your 3 discrete cells with the first round. One near CHO, one to the east near Scottsville, the third further east just west of Chesterfield.
  13. We're a bit more unstable than I thought. Still not the greatest setup, but the risk for a quick QLCS spin-up is there per SPC meso:
  14. FYI, if you GR radar program isn't showing warnings correctly, it's because v2.8 was released on March 20th. You'll have to re-download the program from the website www (dot) grlevelx (dot) com.
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