Eskimo Joe

So far, things appear to be on time, if anything the system is a tad north of everything and the activity is remarkable discrete down south. Not really congealing into a QLCS.

Circulation tightening up just west of Oneonta, AL.

FYI, this was posted in the SE forum. Impacts potentially the timing, etc. for tomorrow:

I mean that even with a shift north or south it's got the highest chance of being a legit event.

It's transitioning from one radar coverage area to another so it's appearing to weaken but it's likely still chugging along.

Whether we get linear or discrete tomorrow, it's going to produce up through the PA Turnpike. The real "safe" spot for action is from DC to SBY south.

Mean storm motion is like 55kts...insane.

RAP is usually very stingy IIRC. I still think the major tornado risk is along and south of I-66 to DC to US 50 to SBY, but man it's not going to take that much for this to be a very memorable event in these parts even by my standards.

Let me remote into my work PC and I'll send you the SRM that I use. EDIT: Our VPN is down for maintenance right now so I'll just share the SRM file tomorrow morning in this thread when I get in work.

Save this one for the archives folks...wow!

Wow, just wow.

3k NAM is just silly...too bad there's a 99% chance it's wrong.

People call bust too early almost every time with Dixie Alley events. Everything is going as scheduled, perhaps delayed an hour or two by the slightly stronger cap.

Up to 84° in Montgomery, AL. Impressive.

I don't see it being a PDS.

IMO, the biggest way we bust tomorrow is if the carolinas light up and steal everything. It's happened before and it might happen again this time, but we won't know until late tomorrow morning.

Watch coordination for Alabama ongoing. Should see it hit within the next hour.

SPC upping the wind threat for a good chunk of AL with the pm update of the SWODY1.

Believe this now has a visually confirmed tornado with it:

95% of a red box for Alabama shortly...looks like it might even be a PDS given the wording in the meso.

Couple of thoughts as we begin to close in on this event: 1.) I'm looking at the evolution of this event today across the south for timing, location of the warm front and low. If we see things are staying further south or rushing along quicker than we could expect a more muted event here tomorrow. 2.) For tomorrow, the satellite and surface obs will be key. If we somehow wind up socked in with east or northeast winds and 55 degrees at 10:00 or 11:00 am then we're probably going to bust. 3.) I would argue the ceiling on this event is pretty high, at least for this area. When even the GFS and Euro are pushing close to 1,200 SBCAPE up towards BWI then there's definitely some strong stuff at work and this isn't a case of the NAM et al being silly.