Eskimo Joe
-
Posts
21,977 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
-
2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
People forget the ENH is just the old 30%. We average between 1 and 3 ENH a year and it's been pretty quite this year even compared to our usual quietness so I wonder if folks are just starved for some action. -
Eh, something usually messes us up. LWX talks about cloud cover so it'll probably be that. Maybe it'll be different this time.
-
RIP, winter 2019 - 2020
-
Looks like summer has been beaten back for good. Nothing real hot in the long range and we're losing daylight faster now.
-
I don't think so. The activity in MD has kicked off a long lived outflow boundary that just pressed south of I-66 in VA. As that boundary moves through it's kicking the storms up. You should see an uptick over the next hour.
-
Possible wet microburst at IAD?
-
Well that was a real disappointment.
-
Nice hail spike just on the cell just west of Front Royal.
-
The activity just SW of Gaithersburg just fell apart on the VIL / VILD as it approached me...classic.
-
Constant thunder in Gaithersburg and it's getting legit dark.
-
Notice how the outflow from the initial storm in Frederick County has moved east and is energizing the activity in Fairfax and Montgomery. Decent wind signature just NE of Sugarland Run in Fairfax.
-
Blue box until 00:00 UTC 8/8/19. WCN should be coming shortly.
-
Looks like a Loudoun, Frederick, northern Montgomery, western Howard, Carroll jackpot to start. Some decent winds coming out of the Frederick cell.
-
SVR for Frederick, MD
-
Interesting to see winds backing a bit to the SE east of US 15. Seems to be nudging the dews up a bit.
-
95% chance of a watch for us: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md1664.html
-
Summary says "watch likely" but disco says "watch possible" heh
-
MCD out for 80% chance of a watch https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md1663.html
-
Yea watch today absolutely bust...that would be pretty loltastic.
-
Terrain induced initiation just west of Loudoun County.
-
Yea it makes sense. I'm not arguing we're going to have some big squall line come through, but there's probably a case to be made to a 60 ot 65kt blue box later today owing to some beefy multi-cell clusters.
-
Pretty good low level lapse rates today. Really thinking we're going to see some decent wind reports from anything that fires up.
-
LWX will likely crack 500 SVRs for the year today. They're currently at 498 including the one issued this morning.
-
If we can manage to warm enough ahead of this activity today there could be some significant wind reports. This is a pretty nice system passing through and even HM is interested in it. The current warned storm just west of Harrisonburg would probably be the biggie of the day. It's already dropping a lot of CG and it's not even 9am.
