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Eskimo Joe

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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    It's entirely possible. The ConvT was 70 IIRC on the Blacksburg, VA 12z RAOB. and Front Royal & Winchester just broke into the 70s.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Per SPC meso page, decent uptick in the 0-1km helicity across NOVA and WV.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Sun trying to come out here. Temp up to 69 degrees.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Just like that https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=143&yr=2020
  5. Eskimo Joe
    SPC issues Tornado Watch until 22:00 UTC. WCN going outs shortly.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Out of nowhere there's a bit of training rains setting up from Potomac, MD into Sykesville.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    HRRR should catch up by 00z Wednesday.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Yea we might scrape out a legit slight risk thingy here. Despite rain, temp now 68/65 in Gaithersburg.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Cell just NW of Moorefield, WV is trying to pin up a bit and the SVR warned cell in WV is looking a tad better on radar. Keep in mind that's in the land of minimal radar data.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Per SPC, supercell composite now a 4 along and west of the Potomac Rivier up through HGR back down to I-81. SBCAPE pushing ~750 at DCA.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    LWX's AM disco talks about a double temp inversion which capped things up. It's literally always something stupid when it comes to severe wx or snow in these parts.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Sky starting to brighten up here. Winds now steady out of the SW ~10 mph and temps up to 67 degrees in Gaithersburg.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    There's actually a nice little wedge of clearing. It might be enough for a couple of good cells.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    80% chance of one by 16z per the text: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2020/md0381.html
  15. Eskimo Joe
    It's going into the West Virginia Radar Hole™ now. More lightning picking up across WV so maybe there's a response from that cluster?
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Meso model have been alluding to this since last night.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    As soon as I type that, we get a SVR with tornado possible tag just east of Elkins, WV and there's better clearing in the WV panhandle and western MD. Maybe there's a window for one or two good segments still.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    It would be peak DC to have everything miss to our south east and north.
  19. Eskimo Joe
  20. Eskimo Joe
    It seems to be a bit worse. The lack of weather data from commercial aircraft is really hampering NWP. The guidance for us yesterday had everyone getting towards 75 to 80 degrees south of DC and we're stuck in the mid 60s down to EZF at nearly 10:00 am.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Yesterday I expressed concern that the carolinas would steal the show or we'd have a tad too much cloud cover. It appears we're getting both. While I'm still hoping for something to happen with the afternoon activity, it looks like we're going to bust on the low end here unless something changes.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Yea the gap is closing a bit more than I'd like to see.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Per some sky cams, there is some blue sky trying to work into Garrett County. It's definitely a bit more muted than i'd like for today, but it's not going to take much instability for an active afternoon to be realized.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    ^PWAT of 19?
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Something must be up with SPCs site...none of the 12z RAOBs have been posted yet.
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