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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    I like your setup for the peas. When we eventually move into a larger house, I'd like to try something like that for our beans.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Meh
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Appears to be (another?) boundary or something racing north from Charles County. Wonder if that's maybe a bay breeze or something?
  4. Eskimo Joe
    You can also see it on the 0.5 degree spectrum width scan on LWX's radar.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Pretty solid training over Frederick County.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    If you compare the obs at Westminster to Balt. Inner Harbor and Martin State, there appears to be a weak convergence zone setting up along the I-83 corridor. Looks like jackpotville may be living up to its name today.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Yea Baltimore County has really been left high and dry of late.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    That has a solid wind signature on the 0.5 degree velocity scan.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    We need to get sent down to AAA to work on our hitting.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Yes. Tomorrow looks like a better opportunity regionwide.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Yea no doubt there's going to be a nice pulser or two, DCAPE is puching 900j/kg. I would put money on locations west of US 15 maximizing potential today.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    95% chance of a watch in PA. SWODY1 Slight expanded further back to Pittsburgh and the rest of western MD.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    I'm thinking a Yoda kind of day? My lawn will like some rain though.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    18z NAMNEST is really the only run/model that has anything other than a run-of-the-mill event. If you're looking for garden variety stuff with some pulse severe the majority of the guidance is on your side. I've learned over the years to disregard the NAMNEST when it's out on its own.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    40% meso: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2020/md0798.html
  16. Eskimo Joe
    0.5°BR/BV appears to show a SW to NE oriented boundary running from Loudoun to Montgomery to Howard counties...it's slowly pushing back north and might act as the focus for some convection this afternoon.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    For those of you who are interested in Derecho's and high-end MCS, I've done some loose analysis of events from 1998 on and found that 3/4 MCS or derechoes that really affect the heart of the LWX/AKQ CWA all pass along or south of Pittsburgh. Anything north of there either just scrapes the northern Baltimore suburbs.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like a low end Derecho may have swept through PA and NJ...several 70 - mid 80 mph reports...substantial damage the utility infrastructure.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    GOES 16 and the past few frames of CTP/LWX radar shows some convection firing as far southwest as Gettysburg.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    You called it days ago...something looks slightly promising days out then goes 'poof'.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Watch the CAPE boundary tomorrow. Storms like to roll along that. Setup right now is north of the Potomac.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    IMO, Friday looks like the better setup for us. Wednesday is probably a dying complex that gets the highlands.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    That's the thing. If the GFS and Euro get pumped, then you know it's good.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    History shows that in these parts if the GFS and Euro aren't on board, at least to a certain extent, then it's just the NAM being the NAM.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    On the plus side, it's good to see the complex / line being favored to go on the northern end of the subforum. Historically, these things dive further south at the last minute. Re-analysis of the 2008, 2012, and 2013 events shows the meso guidance was too far north at HR 48+
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