Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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October/November Mid/Long Range Disco
Eskimo Joe replied to NorthArlington101's topic in Mid Atlantic
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Yea even cutting the numbers in half is big for this time of year.
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I've learned to keep my expectations in the basement in before December 5th and after St. Patrick's Day. Anything more than an advisory level event on the book ends of the season is great.
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Nice. We all gotta stay grounded and realize that for most folks, an inch or two on the sidewalks, cars, etc is all we're gonna see. This is early season pre-gaming with house money.
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00z EURO has greater than 50% chance of 3" of snow north of the turnpike. ~50% of 6"+ north of Rt. 22. If the afternoon runs hold true or get better, have to think a winter storm watch will pop up for the ridge and valley crew.
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New NAM has you all starting as snow. Cold trend continues.
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06z NCEP GFS tries to put a solid 2" - 4" across event the LSV with this event.
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I only care about high impact events. If we got 6" - 10" of paste from DC to NYC and back through I-99 that weighed trees down, etc. it would count in my book. Unique events like early or late season snow and Xmas snow also counts as a good event in my book.
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I live just up the road from you in Reisterstown and would not expect more than 1" - 3" for Baltimore's northern suburbs.
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Just wanted to stop by and give a congrats to you all in here. Looks like the first advisory level event of the season is shaping up for most the the area. If you're above 1000', you might pop a warning level event from this. November events are like March events, only better. We're at the start of the season, playing with house money and losing sun angle and daylight length each day. Whatever happens, this will be fun because we're just at the start of the season.
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Got a good feeling about this event. First flakes for everyone and advisory level event north of I-70 and west of US 15. That's pretty good for mid-November in these parts.
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Good overnight trends. Hope we get another tick or two south with the ULL low.
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Still getting used to seeing the words "18z EURO"....
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October/November Mid/Long Range Disco
Eskimo Joe replied to NorthArlington101's topic in Mid Atlantic
Ian only wakes up for the big stuff. He's on my list of approved thread starters. The last snowstorm thread I started was in the Central PA sub forum for the Oct 2011 event. I'm cursed. -
Wonder if places near Mason-Dixon get a quick period of rain and sleet before going to all rain. Dews are running near or just below freezing there.
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October/November Mid/Long Range Disco
Eskimo Joe replied to NorthArlington101's topic in Mid Atlantic
Whatever happens this winter, we need a real poster to star the storm threads. I nominate that we only let @Bob ChiII or @WxUSAF start them. EDIT: adding @stormtracker, @Ian, and @mappy -
Cant find anything to be concerned about with respect to the upcoming winter. Dont think it's going to be cold, but really hopeful at the prospect of one or two good storms. Hell, a climo year would be better than the last 2 winters.
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I love November days like this. It makes me so happy.
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Agreed. Hoping for more snow than cold. I'd consider this winter a big success if we got anregionqide warning event, say 6" - 10" on Christmas Eve into Christmas Day.
