Eskimo Joe

Yea they seem almost completely disinterested in anything north of RIC.

Really anxious for the 12z RAOB out of IAD.

Yes.

It might in fact be.

All the low levels clouds are clearing out pretty rapidly down here. Event some if the mid level junk is trying to break up.

Winds shifted to SW in Gaithersburg at our wx station.

Supercell composite up to 8 in SW VA, DCAPE around 700. Not too bad for 8:30 in the morning.

Here is a great video n how to read a TAF:

How often do you see a TAF like this:

I'm good with staying here as well for this event.

Got my eye on Charleston, WV radar. That's where our activity will be forming over the next 2 to 3 hours.

The latest one.

HRRR is lit for us later today. Tons of discrete stuff through 18/19z. Really hope this isn't a care of the HRRR being HRRible.

First few legit scans of the visible satellite indicate an area of legitimate clearing across western portion of West Virginia. A good sign.

For @Kmlwx et al, here is the SRM color palate that I use. SRM.pal

For those of you setting your SRM on your favorite radar program, the mean storm motion appears to be 235°, 55kt

My thoughts on today. For the record, I remain intrigued at the event and think that most of our action comes this afternoon. 1.) Convection this morning has deposited between 0.75" and 2" of rain in the area. A report from the Roseland area of Nelson County, VA shows some mudslide along Rt. 6 and nearly 6" of rain. This convection was mostly elevated and I suspect the 12z RAOB from IAD will reveal a bit of a temperature inversion which is why the winds are relatively quite. Once the sun gets up things should mix out a bit and gustier winds will begin to occur. 2.) The area of interest for everyone is this afternoon's storms currently over Kentucky. IR satellite shows an area of distinct clearing ahead of this and water vapor reveals a legit dry slot which should allow at least some sunshine to occur later this morning. Just how much and how long will determine how effectively we can get some surface based instability. It's interesting to see a potential little mesolow around 994 mb being analyzed by the SPC meso analysis page near the OH/KY/WV border. This might aid in development of the afternoon activity. 3.) With the morning rain, the ground is relatively saturated. It will not take much for trees to come down from this afternoon's activity or even from the synoptic scale winds.

I could see the ENH get pushed to Mason-Dixon for wind. And have the 10% TOR go from a JYO to DCA to SBY line.

Likely Step 2 or 3 tomorrow.

Just checked the HRR/RAP/NAM/NAM-nest. They all have a QLCS-ish thing running through the DC/Baltimore area between 17z and 20z tomorrow. They all have the leading edge of the WAA precip hitting BWI around 00z and here we are at 00:46z with light rain at my house in Reisterstown so they don't appear to be terribly off when it comes to timing.

FWIW, the 23z HRRR, gets a QLCS going up into Allentown, PA and has everyone from Mason-Dixon south in an environmental conductive for tornadoes from 09z to 17z tomorrow. I don't think it's going to happen the way the HRRR is saying, but it's still somewhat encouraging to see the meso models not backing down.

^Supercell # of 12...lol I wish that'd verify but we'll probably be lucky to get half of that.