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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    I agree with High Risk that we're probably getting a red box. Latest SPC mesoanalysis is a favorable environment for a couple of tornadoes, but to me the bigger threat is straight line winds.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    The only place i can ever find them is on SPC site and it takes like 4 hours for it to show up there.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Might have a watch box drawn up and once the 18z RAOB gets finished they push it out.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Yea I'll base my interest for the rest of the day on that. I don't know why we don't have more special RAOBs.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Okay, maybe I'm too pessimistic about today:
  6. Eskimo Joe
    18z RAOB going up from IAD
  7. Eskimo Joe
  8. Eskimo Joe
    If you look at the regional radar, there's definitely some discrete stuff firing in Central WV. The challenge is to get this stuff rooted in the surface instability to start tapping the shear and helicity though. The 12z RAOB from IAD has a ConvT of 87 degrees and we aren't seeing anything in the uppers 80s until you get south and east of I95. If I were on the eastern shore or S. MD I'd be pretty psyched about today.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Yea this is looking more and more like a Delmarva and S MD threat.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    I'm only interested in Carroll County today. I'm at my firehouse this evening so I'd like to run a couple calls. I doubt this turns into anything though. We're really fighting the clouds today.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Latest spc mesoanalysis puts a decent bit of helicity south of I70. The afternoon meso disco is going to be interesting.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    SPC actually expanded ENH up into PA. 10% tor, 30% wind up to MDT/RDG and back west to HGR.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    SPC keeps D1 ENH
  14. Eskimo Joe
    15z HRRR is hot garbage for everyone
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Finally some real clearing, even up to HGR. Wind shifted to WSW in Gaithersburg.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Same in Gaithersburg
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Lot of the short term guidance hitting the QLCS stuff vs. Tornado risk now. Wouldn't shock my if the afternoon update drops the 10%TOR but keeps the 30% WIND.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    How ironic would it be to have a D1 ENH and 10% tor, but we eind up with some generic tstorm line this afternoon in like central VA?
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Awful lot of clouds out there.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Nothing on CAD or our DOT feed. Really surprised. It came through Reisterstown as nothing but heavy rain. Radar looked a lot better than ground truth.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Interesting circulation near New Windsor, Carroll County
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like for today, the real activity for MD is back towards Cumberland.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    I'd gladly sacrifice today's activity to make tomorrow a sure thing especially if it meant Frederick/Carroll would get the bullseye.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    100% agree.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    DY1 MOD Risk for tornado is now 15% w/ SIG Severe. There's almost no chance we get that. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html
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