Eskimo Joe

All of LWX and Delmarva (north of US 50) added to the DY1 slight...15% wind.

The lone warned cell in Central PA so far has been the only thing producing sustained damage reports. That is probably being fed by a little vort max or something. I would argue it's probably going to be the main show and would scrape through Baltimore and Harford counties.

At the risk of sounding optimistic, it should be noted that a subtle boundary was laid down across Frederick, Carroll, and Baltimore counties last night by the convection that drifted out of PA. It could lead to a quick spark of the convection coming out of PA.

Today has the feeling of something rogue dropping into our area on NW flow that turns into a big day for someone.

Nice picture. It's almost criminal to not be throwing a frog in that water. Looks like some prime bass fishing.

All of them

Why aren't we evacuating Arkansas!?

I've found pretty good success freshwater fishing prior to remnants of tropical cyclones coming up these parts. We probably aren't going to see any decent flooding or severe weather from it so might as well try to score a nice day pond hopping from it.

Next storm smells fishy, especially if it winds itself up up too fast.

Given the pressure falls ahead of Laura and increased cloud cover, Saturday AM would be a good day to go fishing early

Looks like west of I-270 is the place to be today.

80% chance of a T'storm watch shortly: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2020/md1570.html

In 2005 people panicked and evacuated large parts of Houston days before Hurricane Rita was even thinking of moving in that direction. Rita ended up not hitting Houston (shocker), and the evacuation killed more people and caused more problems than the storm itself. Needlessly calling for evacuation beyond 72 hours is a highly risky event. Rest assured, emergency managers are going through their 5 day pre-landfall checks and if evacs are needed, they'll be called for. You cannot force people to leave though, only renters on coastal properties.

Almost as bad as high risk season.

Eh, it's okay. Mappy get a couple of 55dbz pixels over her. The rest is pretty typical summer storms. Nothing that would warrant an ENH. In fact, the 15z HRRR is mostly dry for the DY1 ENH area. The best activity is west of Westminster.

They would certainly produce some rain for everyone's yards. It seems the HRRR has handled the morning batch of convection the "best". We are going to have to see what things look like around 5:00 pm or so. The action doesn't really appear to develop until it sinks south of the PA Turnpike. The latest HRRR, for example, has the line coming through the DC area around 23z to 01z. Not the greatest timing, but NW flow events usually jackpot someone.

Latest HRRR would at least water everyone's grass.

What time will the Enhanced Risk hit my house today?

Which is why I've made a mental note to never wade in there again.

I keep forgetting how much of a dumpster fire the main tropical threads are. I post something in there to raise a point about caution regarding RI on a ragged looking tropical system, and all the doom porn posters come out and brigade the crap out of you.

This has not been a hot summer. We're really failing at everything these day.

Calling it now, we don't see more than 1 major hurricane in the Atlantic basin this year. All these forecasts of a big season are in serious trouble.

You know it's going to happen.

We're just saying the 90s up for October.

Not sure if this was already posted, but this thread is worth reading: