Eskimo Joe

BWI: 5” DCA: 1” IAD: 3” RIC: 0" Tiebreaker SBY: 2"

We lucked into one storm. Statistically it was an above average winter.

December is going to be a make or break month. If it's a torch then we're probably toast for the winter as a whole. If we can manage one or two events then it probably means we're setting us up for a solid winter and the pattern won't be as hostile. I'm going to set my expectations low and expect another 1997-98.

We still have spotted lantern flies fluttering around at work.

A 40% chance of partly sunny, a 30% chance of a coating to 5 inches, and a 30% chance of 5" - 12". They'll apologize when it turns out cloudy.

^that's not terrible at all

I would happily write off December 2026 if I knew it would transition into a solid January and February. Snow with no sun angle concerns is the best snow. March snow is fine, but it's like the last drink at a bar while everyone's cleaning up around you and the bar tender is staring you down.

Everyone knows that's how you build up to a great pattern in 2028. You just gotta punt this winter first.

BTW, here's the GOAT early season polar disruption. No way am I calling for another 2009-10, just posting for comparison. The Japanese marine heatwave is killing us of late.

There are always questions about whether any SSW or wind reversal will couple appropriately with the polar vortex. This 3D modeling suggests that it will successfully disrupt things all the way to the surface, which is hopeful to at least mute a torch December. I'm not expecting a miracle in the snowfall department this winter, just climo snowfall.

Interesting test case here of the physics vs AI guidance.

This is how you establish cross polar flow and turn Canada into an ice box. A crucial first step for legit snow chances in these parts.

Inject that into my veins

12z Euro appears to go for a prolonged weakening of the polar vortex? Maybe this at least mutes any Torchmas?