Eskimo Joe

2016-2018 were back to back years of terrible IMBY. But 2017-2018 was the worst of the two. As @psuhoffman said, 2017-2018 had bad dice rolls on game day. So I'd take that pattern again and chance it.

HRRR is preferred

2017 was terrible for me, but the other analogs listed here weren't the worst.

Both Frostburg and Bittinger mesonet sites had a sub-50 degree high today.

NAM Nest insists on decent surface winds Thursday am commute.

Looks like we'll finally get a good autumn soaker. Even better, we're inside 60 hrs, so the chance of a last minute fail goes down.

Just rage engagement farming.

Welp

I really like the positioning of the west coast ridge and Alaskan trough as we head into November. That's a decent sign for winter.

RSTM2 COOP site - had my first sub 60 degree high of the autumn yesterday. Got down to 36 last night, yet somehow our hibiscus on the deck is still pumping out blooms.

Thank you for the info, IAD seems to be an ice box compared to the other climate sites.

Normal freeze date for IAD isn't until November, IIRC.