Eskimo Joe

That post is incorrect.

Excellent

100% probably one of the better model suites of the winter thus far. Bottom line: there's potential next week, but no one should be spiking the ball. I fully expect swings with each run, hoping to at least see a trend at 18z where things are still there.

CFS is quite chilly for February

They seem to be more common in El Nino events, maybe the more active STJ is a requirement for these?

A key ingredient for any legitimate snowstorm in these parts.

Agreed. We're like 12 hours off from a legit event for everyone.

Thus far, the 12z suite gives credence to a storm somewhere in the 1/15 to 1/17 time frame. It doesn't appear to be a cutter either, either it hits us or to our south. That's about all anyone should glean.

Seems like a 50/50 low locks everything in? Not a terrible spot for the antecedent high, not great either. IIRC, that setup worked for 12/19/09 too.

DGEX and then the DGEX and Canadian for the 2/10 event.

As @Terpeast and @WxUSAF have often said, worry about thermals inside D5.

Yea there's a decent moisture feed with that storm and it looks fairly neutral at 500 mb?

Will echo others' sentiment about Jan 2025. My records indicate a total snow depth of about six inches for several days, with a low temperature of 1° twice.

Indeed. Unfortunately some folks misinterpret posts like that so I was attempting to add a crumb of context.

Paul Kocin cooked that metaphor up. He gets all the credit.