Eskimo Joe

Yup. That's snow 10/10 times.

HGR and MRB gusting over 50 mph. Keedysville mesonet gusted to 48 mph. Bittinger mesonet gusted to 51 mph. Clarksville mesonet gusted to 46 mph.

12z Euro/EPS and the GEPS try to pop a +PNA just before the Jan 6th - 10th window. To see it on multiple ensembles is encouraging.

Agreed. The 12z suite has been encouraging. I'm happy to see the Canadian and it's ensembles joining in as well.

12z Euro op has a low offshore Jan 7-9 timeframe. Close to something here folks.

Nope. It's a nice hit.

So do the 12z Canadian ensembles.

RE: 12z Canadian Move the antedecent high pressure just 200-400 miles west and that storm at HR 240 is a KU event.

Good to see some agreement. I know it's an old adage, but I trust op and ensemble guidance at 00z/12z much more beyond HR 120 because they have the addition of the upper air data. It also mitigates the sensation of rug pulls every 6hrs. Once you get inside D5/HR120, the 06/18z guidance has more value. Just my personal opinion.

GEM has a history of detecting some potent northern stream events. It did well with Valentine's Day 2007, the second Feb 2010 event, 1/26/11, and the Valentines' Day 2014 storm.

GEM has been better than the GFS of late. JB has posted this on Twitter, but I don't feel comfortable sharing the tweet or a screenshot because his post is somewhat unhinged.

It's understandable to a point, we've been stuck in a nearly decade long pattern of fails and heart breaking last minute rug pulls. That being said, the hissy fits over a single op model run beyond HR240 not showing a Top 10 Miller A are exhausting.

They're having a hissy fit. Plain and simple.

Well said. Here's the visualization:

06z Euro tries to give some light snow north of I-66 on New Years' Day. Wouldn't be much, a coating to one inch at most, but it would be great to get something.