raindancewx

The GFS has what I call the 'legendary' pattern. Waves of subtropical moisture moving into New Mexico. Days on end. Cold enough for heavy snow in the mountains. I don't think I've ever seen a model depict this much moisture in New Mexico consistently in a non-monsoon month. It's probably way too much moisture, but verbatim, the mountains over 8,500 would get a foot of cement, and the highest mountains might get 3-5 feet, especially if the backdoor cold front helps wring out the moisture. That small area by Los Alamos is 3.0-3.5" precipitation, and it would be mostly snow.

Fairly promising for mountain snow along the NM/CO border over the next week. Timing is exactly right for the 3.5 month lag of the late Nov pattern. Also follows some big time SOI crashes, and the MJO is relatively favorable too.

CPC ONI page updated - +0.5C for DJF. Third period with El Nino conditions by ONI. March should be warm enough for JFM to be El Nino conditions too. Feb-Apr is the only question really - but I think we get it.

The European & GFS both have huge precipitation for New Mexico for the week starting 3/8. This is consistent with the big SOI crashes 10 days prior. Also, the pattern is now at 3.5 months of a lag to late November, when Albuquerque had near two inches of precipitation from 11/20-11/29. The pattern has been repeating pretty reliably at a 3.5 month since December looked like mid Aug-mid Sept. 14 point drop 2/26-2/28 and 2/27-2/28, 32 point drop 2/27-2/29, 19.5 point drop 2/28 to 3/1, 18 point drop 2/28-2/29 - those are all enormous by historical standards, and similar to the magnitude of the November crashes. The early November, 30 point one day crash preceded that crazy Blue Norther (around 11/12 I think?) by 10 days. 1 Mar 2020 1008.31 1007.85 -17.47 -3.09 -3.24 29 Feb 2020 1007.73 1006.35 -16.14 -2.61 -2.97 28 Feb 2020 1009.06 1003.90 2.02 -1.81 -2.75 27 Feb 2020 1011.55 1003.50 15.90 -1.48 -2.76 26 Feb 2020 1013.13 1005.05 16.04 -1.72 -2.98

2019 9.02 9.25 11.82 13.36 14.59 14.36 10.96 9.97 8.25 7.27 5.07 1.66 2020 -2.51 -3.20 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 QBO updated - still looks like 2002-03 and 2004-05. It's a 27.15C El Nino by the looks of it for winter - just about +0.55C to +0.60C by the standard CPC uses if the final Nino 3.4 value is 27.15C. The waters below Nino 3.4 are still warm, but the cold is definitely building around that area. Using the 1951-2010 means for Nino 3.4, the Oct-Feb period has been an El Nino. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04DEC2019 22.5 0.1 25.3 0.2 26.9 0.3 29.4 0.9 11DEC2019 23.1 0.5 25.5 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.5 1.0 18DEC2019 23.3 0.4 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.5 1.1 25DEC2019 23.6 0.3 25.5 0.2 27.0 0.4 29.5 1.0 01JAN2020 23.7 0.1 25.7 0.3 27.2 0.7 29.6 1.2 08JAN2020 24.3 0.2 25.9 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.3 1.0 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 22JAN2020 24.6-0.2 25.8 0.0 26.9 0.3 29.1 0.9 29JAN2020 25.3 0.2 26.1 0.2 27.4 0.8 29.3 1.1 05FEB2020 26.4 0.8 26.1 0.0 26.9 0.2 29.3 1.2 12FEB2020 26.1 0.1 26.6 0.3 26.8 0.1 28.9 0.9 19FEB2020 26.5 0.3 26.7 0.2 27.4 0.6 29.2 1.1 26FEB2020 27.2 1.0 27.1 0.4 27.4 0.5 29.1 1.0 Winters are generally warm after El Ninos in the US along the West Coast, this year was no exception. More interesting to see the lack of cold in the blue zones, but that's likely because most El Ninos are followed by La Ninas. The pattern in February is pretty close to what I had for whole winter (warm coasts, cold interior NW, through the Rockies and southern/central plains, but not into MT, ND, SD) but unfortunately it came too late.

Subsurface for Dec-Feb, in the 100-180W zone at the equator, 0-300m below the surface, is like a blend of 1992-93 (x2), 2001-02 (x2), 2004-05, 2014-15. Of course, that blend featured a cold East/warm West. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt The closest objective year for the subsurface was 1985-86 - a very hot West to merely warm East in March. But the heat core should be east of March 1986 in 2020. 100-180W Dec Jan Feb 1992 0.19 0.27 0.28 1992 0.19 0.27 0.28 2001 0.17 0.95 0.78 2001 0.17 0.95 0.78 2004 0.79 0.52 0.59 2014 0.54 0.15 0.83 Mean 0.34 0.52 0.59 2019 0.34 0.51 0.56

Canadian says La Nina develops in July. Trended colder for Nino 3.4 for the next year on the 3/1 update.

Canadian is hinting at a wet March for NM - lots of 'wetter than normal' right near the border of NM/TX/MX. That's usually a wet pattern near the boundaries of the cold/warm zones. Huge SOI drops recently support activity around 3/9-3/10, which is the 3.5 month lag for the late November storminess in the SW. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 29 Feb 2020 1007.73 1006.35 -16.14 -2.61 -2.97 28 Feb 2020 1009.06 1003.90 2.02 -1.81 -2.75 27 Feb 2020 1011.55 1003.50 15.90 -1.48 -2.76

Big crash verified for 2/27-2/28. +16 to +2 in one day. Usually means a big storm in the SW after a drop that size. GFS already hinting at it yesterday -

The CFS is actually going to my idea for April (I had an area of +5 or warmer NE/Great Lakes)...unfortunately it shows it for March. Oh well. We'll have to see how it verifies. If you look at 12/16-1/15, it was a pattern pretty similar to what is depicted below, but the huge warm area centered further south than what the CFS has. New England & Minnesota are in the 10th shade for warmth, something like +6 to +8 (F) on the scale.

Dew points bottomed out below -10 today in Albuquerque, similar to several air masses in late October & early-mid November. Literal 48 hour transition from mid-40s dew points to mid -10s dew points.

The CFS continues to depict a wet period in week two of March for NM/AZ. The storm Saturday-Sunday, timing wise works well as the repeat of the 11/6 storm, both warm wet systems. If something big is going to come through, I think there is support for it to be around 3/7. That's the 3.5 month lag of the Nov 20th storm. It also may link up well with the collapse of the Typhoon hitting Australia this week. A big SOI crash around 2/26 or 2/27 supports something in that time frame. Typhoons are often associated with the biggest crashes of the SOI.

I just threw in some numbers for 2019-20, but you can see, after the lowest annualized solar year (monthly sunspots July-June/12), the NAO goes negative in winter, at least in recent history it has. I don't think it's a coincidence that the annualized solar cycle effects have been showing up - very wet Northern Plains / cold West, relatively uninterrupted since 2016-17, which is when we fell below the magical 55 sunspot/year threshold I use for low-solar.

We're likely warm enough in February now (27.1C or so), with enough warmth below Nino 3.4 for this event to be classified as an El Nino. CPC uses 26.58C as the Nino 3.4 baseline for average. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04DEC2019 22.5 0.1 25.3 0.2 26.9 0.3 29.4 0.9 11DEC2019 23.1 0.5 25.5 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.5 1.0 18DEC2019 23.3 0.4 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.5 1.1 25DEC2019 23.6 0.3 25.5 0.2 27.0 0.4 29.5 1.0 01JAN2020 23.7 0.1 25.7 0.3 27.2 0.7 29.6 1.2 08JAN2020 24.3 0.2 25.9 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.3 1.0 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 22JAN2020 24.6-0.2 25.8 0.0 26.9 0.3 29.1 0.9 29JAN2020 25.3 0.2 26.1 0.2 27.4 0.8 29.3 1.1 05FEB2020 26.4 0.8 26.1 0.0 26.9 0.2 29.3 1.2 12FEB2020 26.1 0.1 26.6 0.3 26.8 0.1 28.9 0.9 19FEB2020 26.5 0.3 26.7 0.2 27.4 0.6 29.2 1.1 Long term, the near record warmth in Nino 4 in February, and very positive AO in February are opposite signals for US temperatures in March - should be interesting to watch how that plays out. The subsurface does imply Nino 4 may cool soon, fairly rapidly, in which case the AO may take over completely.

Have to see how Spring goes. You can get a lot of rain and snow in the West through May. Western snow pack is pretty average for most areas except Oregon, California, Nevada, and Arizona. The Rio Grande should be fine, the mountains surrounding the head waters are near average, and the lakes/reservoirs are pretty full still from last year. Elephant Butte Lake which supplies a lot of stored Rio Grande water to Mexico & far West Texas is the fullest it has been in over 10 years, since July 2010. The models/CFS and my own ideas also support a pretty wet March for New Mexico & Arizona, probably southern Colorado too which would help a lot. February/March more were super warm for years here, much more average lately, which has helped. I think we hit 75 on February 10th in Albuquerque in 2017, which means even the mountain tops likely saw some snow melt. None of that bs this year, so far.

The lack of snow pack right now compared to last year implies a much warmer March. The snow-less areas of Montana in some cases will literally be 20F warmer than last year. Billings finished 22 degrees below average last February.

I think the models see very high down dew points down here and kind of go nuts with precipitation for the NM high terrain and Colorado. We had 0.19" rain, despite dew points at July levels (mid-40s). On the other hand...I forecast 1.25" for Dec-Feb for Albuquerque in my winter forecast for October, with a high of 49.7F. Albuquerque is currently at 1.17"/49.3F for 12/1-2/22. The storm did what I needed it to do. I had 7.5 inches of snow through February 28. We're at 6.5, although the distribution is pretty different. I did have a big November (we only average an inch here). This was from my October forecast. Essentially, a lot of the cold/snow I expected for Nov-Dec concentrated in November. Obviously, November came in wetter than expected, wettest since 1905 here. October was 68.2F / 0.59" / 0.0" snow. November was 55.6F / 1.99" / 4.0" snow. December was 47.8F / 0.30" / 0.4" snow. January was 48.8F / 0.30" / 0.9" snow. February isn't over yet, but should finish around 53.5F/0.57"/1.2" snow.

The repeat was inexact, with weaker colder and strong warmth, but its not surprising to me that the South had snow with this part of the pattern cycling through again, at the 3.5 month lag. Looks to me like we're about at November 6th in terms of how Fall progressed.

Waters below Nino 3.4 aren't as warm as last year, but I can't really see a rapid collapse in Nino 3.4 temperatures either, at least until April. Warmth in Nino 3.4 in March is a strong warm signal for the US later in Summer, especially August-September. Probably not as warm as last Summer though, which followed one of the warmest Nino 3.4 Springs on record, I think it was 7th since 1950 for warmth.

The local weather service is talking about record precipitable water for Saturday for the date for New Mexico. My winter outlook had 1.25" precipitation for Albuquerque for Dec-Feb. I have an experimental winter regression for El Ninos that said 2.10", +/-0.8" at 95% certainty for the winter. Currently 0.98", with 0.1-0.5" possible for the storm Saturday. Different formula had 0.47", +/-0.43" at 95% certainty for February - currently 0.38". Very curious to see how it all shakes out. Takes forever to test these seasonal regressions. Winter high is currently 49.4F here. Up to 89 lows <=32F for 10/1-2/21.

The Euro has a 985 mb Typhoon hitting east of Darwin, Australia in a few days. Once it weakens, there should be a pretty massive crash in the SOI, shortly before March, probably around 2/26. That would set up the 3/7-3/14 window I've been targeting for major SW precipitation for months pretty well if it happens, as you tend to get major precipitation events in the SW 10 days after a major SOI crash.

In an SOI sense, a big -SOI in Dec, near 0 SOI in Jan, and then a big -SOI in Feb is fairly unusual. This blend is broadly consistent with my analogs - with a warm West for March. 2012-13 is objectively the closest match in the past 100 years, but I prefer this blend. Year Dec Jan Feb 2019 -6.7 0.7 -7.3 1953 -5.8 5.0 -5.2 1980 -2.2 2.1 -4.2 1980 -2.2 2.1 -4.2 1987 -5.8 -1.5 -6.2 2002 -13.4 -2.0 -9.3 2002 -13.4 -2.0 -9.3 Blend -7.1 0.6 -6.4 For the subsurface, 100-180W, 0-300m down, these are likely top matches for Dec-Feb: 100-180W Dec Jan Feb 2004 0.79 0.52 0.59 1992 0.19 0.27 0.28 2001 0.17 0.95 0.78 1992 0.19 0.27 0.28 Mean 0.34 0.50 0.48 2019 0.34 0.51 0.50 Take your pick for March - the second blend is much closer to the analogs I used for Spring (1954, 1993, 2005, 2019 for MAM), and March 2020 (1954, 2004, 2005). 1981 is actually a decent match for the subsurface too. March 2013 also looks fairly close to the left map, and it is the top SOI blend.

The CFS has a huge wet signal for 3/4 to 3/11 on its weekly run for New Mexico & Southern Colorado. That's roughly the time-frame I've been expecting the Nov 20-29 part of the pattern to repeat. We'll see.

GFS/Euro are showing a warm/wet storm around Friday/Saturday - this would be the early November (11/6) storm using the 3.5 month lag if it verifies. Would verify the precipitation portion of my winter forecast for Albuquerque if it happens as shown.

Weeklies continue to show decay in Nino 3.4. It's hard to say if it will last - the subsurface animation is down. My suspicion is it won't. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 22JAN2020 24.6-0.2 25.8 0.0 26.9 0.3 29.1 0.9 29JAN2020 25.3 0.2 26.1 0.2 27.4 0.8 29.3 1.1 05FEB2020 26.4 0.8 26.1 0.0 26.9 0.2 29.3 1.2 12FEB2020 26.1 0.1 26.6 0.3 26.8 0.1 28.9 0.9 ~Record positive Arctic Oscillation in February with near record warmth in Nino 4 is an interesting/unusual combination for February. The two are opposite temperature signals for the US in March in large areas of the US. On the monthly data sets, February 1990, 1992, 1995, 2015, 2019 are similar, but the AO wasn't super positive in January in these years generally. The Oct 16-Nov 15 pattern has shown up, shifted West for February, so I'd expect Nov 16-Dec 15 to show up for March, shifted in some way. The warm storm forecast for me late this week is on track with the warm/wet storm on November 6th, roughly a 3.5 month lag still, generally +104 days, +/-3 is verifying pretty well.