so_whats_happening

Yea i agree i guess a .4 or so plus IOD is something of note. The mjo definitely is key here and with the anomalies in the maritime region going near normal finally it is starting to look like a more classic nino setup overall. Surprisingly with the latest weakening in 3/3.4 region we saw more warming occur in 4 than any other region. 1+2 had a random spike but i dont know i dont see it going much above 2.0C in 3.4, if it does it probably touches it and then falls back a bit but we will see what happens in the next month as coupling may be on the way.

I dont know maybe it is just me but i feel we have been hesring on repeat the +IOD is coming and will create a positive feedback loop since like april/may. The nino has been able to get where it is without such an occurrence so im not sure it matters all too much if the IOD goes positive or stays neutral. Anyway there seems to be a little reversal happening again in 1+2 and eastern 3 but im not sure just how much warming will come from this. The thermocline has been rising in the east pac, the subsurface anomalies continue to show signs of weakening, and the progression of ssts looks to be going west (although slowly still). Lets see what happens in the next 2 weeks with this EPAC reversal coming up but with OHC decreasing to less than 1C right now is there much in the pipeline if we dont get more subsurface warmth being generated?

Sorry don't want to take up too many of your post allotments but im also pretty sure many many models were forecasting a leveling off or downturn (some more drastic than others) of region 1+2. Could be a situation where they were too quick with that changeover guess we will find out soon enough how everything transpires.

So why bother posting it than if it is still trash? Also you need to relax a bit it is only weather.

Starting to get some -VP showing up over the Pacific finally still have the bulk pretty far west. Can also see the relaxation in the trades over more of 3.4 this go around compared to mostly 3 last time this should help gain some ticks in the anomaly department. We need a much more pronounced change to reach those upper level temp profiles being thrown around by models. Of note we are also seeing more trade winds over the 1+2/ 3 region now compared to the past 2 months or so. This should help with that cooling potential the models had seen going into fall. How much that is a big question.

Maybe im misunderstanding but you trash the CFS then post about it later on?

Yea it may see another push in temps after the passing of some weakened trades recently but overall the trades look to still hold through much of the month. 1+2 look to be holding steady at this point as well as 3 any warming may keep to 3.4 and 4 coming up. Really will be interesting to get subsurface data coming up here as the thermocline does look to be lifting in the last few updates probably a reason why 1+2 rebounded a bit recently. Gotta see how that holds up coming up here.

It does look as though a KW may be forming around 140E region this makes sense with the westerlies running around the region (though weak). With what looks like the thermocline lifting a bit in the EPAC, I wonder if a KW does form if it now impacts more into 3.4/4 region. GFS seems to be trying to show a weakening of trades from about 120-130W to 160W so essentially into 3.4 region. Does 1+2 become cutoff as we move forward? Should be an interesting month to watch this.

Certainly an interesting subsurface progression Edit had to fix the animation and added in the temp profile as well.

Here are two sites to help explain stuff with pictures Daily reconstruction: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/ Monthly/ Seasonal: https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl

Lastly lets see how this one turns out but thought the evolution was cool. Again wish I had saved prior times but unfortunately during that time I was without a home computer (friend destroyed my mac) and just using the work comp and a flash drive. Grabbed everything I could onto a flash drive before that comp was wiped...

Here are 850 wind anoms (just noticed the current map, the bottom one, cuts off at 120E but the old one goes to 60E so don't let that fool you)

Got a chance to clean out old files on my comp the other weekend and just took a look at the super nino of 2015/16 data I had saved, what little I did save. Here is a VP anomaly chart the dates on the left range from Jul 5th to about end of September same setup as the one for this year scale wise. You can see the standing wave that was able to form and allow for -VP to move east and stay east. Unfortunately I do not have info saved for the time stamp before this in this format. I do have the later portion though as it went into winter, you can see how the standing wave breaks down mid to late October.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +1.2___ +1___+1____ +1.5___+1.3___+2____-1.2___ +2.5___ +1.3

I agree on the PDO while weakening from its near record levels im not sure we go positive by fall/winter, maybe more neutral if not cool neutral (if that is a thing). As for double Nino im not so sure yet while rather unprecedented, like having two super ninos in a 10 year time span (not saying this will be a super nino, but in that off chance it squeaks up that high), it is possible considering the lack of cooling in the WPAC subsurface. Until that starts to arise I feel that option can not be thrown out just yet. Has the rapid increase in WV in the stratosphere helped cool the stratosphere globally? I feel it would do the opposite and allow for warming to occur. Maybe this could help explain the significantly warmer troposphere temps globally along with the ongoing El Nino rise, just postulating as of now.

It is impressive that very minor wwb events and two decent weakenings in the last 6 months has allowed it to go this far, the one decent was with the large soi drop in may to early june definitely openned the gates at a time when subsurface anoms were building. The other being back in march with the large mjo wave. Im curious whether this one is similar to those or with a sort of cutting off in the subsurface this may play a role as we go further along. I would have liked to see the expansion of +6c or higher but with no real kelvin wave as of yet i dont see it pushing more until that time comes if not potentially weaken a bit. Nino 3 will probably be the tell tale of just how high region 3.4 goes we should know in the next month just how much more warming can happen.

Gfs is sniffing out something in a week, wwb wise. It seems like maybe this a response from the -SOI pattern we just had. We saw one similarly back at the end of may from those rather low SOI values. This one may finally cut in deep, maybe. JMA sees a MJO wave 1/2 response which i believe is really good for Atlantic development and may allow the weakening of trades a bit as it passes over the pacific very weak. How much warming response will be interesting subsurface seems to be taking a little hit of late and OHC is still rather low. Edit to add that euro also sees the 1/2 wave action before heading back into null at the beginning of the month. Bomm is still just in its own world.

The JMA has been doing really well, even with the mjo.

00z GFS brings the lemon across the islands and if circulation can hold together brings it into the eastern Gulf. Still about 5 days out from the Antilles but it may just get to TS status. There seems to be another one after that in the pipeline that may have a better atmosphere to work with if the initial lemon kind of fades around DR/ Haiti/ PR region.

Nothing seems too off from the development. It is like the little engine that could lol. I think the one surprising aspect was the March WWB event that doesn't happen very often and in such an isolated manner but each Nino/Nina will have an evolution that is unique to it. Typically we peak in Nino/Nina October or November, to peak before or after is probably more rare but does happen (early peak is probably the rarest occurrence). The longevity is another thing fun to watch, namely about the collapse of such events is always fun as some hold on while slowly cooling/warming and others in a matter of 2 months go neutral from the peak. Still like my idea from I think April/May that we peak near 1.7-1.8 trimonthly with maybe a blip of a month going up to 2.0C max (this is still a big maybe) with overall atmospheric conditions still probably in moderate Nino category. Of course we wait and see but with July probably ending around 1.1 average to get to above 2.0C would need some really pronounced Nino conditions to come about. Solid -SOI, maybe an actual WWB event that reverses more than just 1+2 and eastern 3, forcing to not be so held back, cooling of waters off Maritime continent just to name a few things. The PDO does look to finally be getting knocked down a peg so maybe by fall it will be close to neutral? We are definitely spreading the surface waters west now compared to the past month or so. Im curious what the subsurface water temps will look like in a month.

Thanks for the response.

Ninos would be disrupted. I guess people dont like MEI? If we use this as a clue we have had less impactful ninos from 83 onward (at least super nino peaks have been lower over time) even with SST temps increasing considering 2015-16 had some of the highest 3.4 numbers. We still were impacted by the classic super nino state overall so it will take time for it to really show. As for ninas im not sure it makes them stronger. The only thing i could think of would be that ninas may become more frequent over time with a WPAC warm pool constantly being around. It's a shame it only goes to 1979 but gotta use what we have i guess.

It should continue most of this week probably two decent spike or negative departures days with other days around -15 average. When it ends is still a bit out but euro cuts it off before the end of the month or at least takes it to neutral. Lets see what it can do.

1972 is definitely looking like an interesting year in comparison. If it wasn't for the cooler WPAC and inverse in the Atlantic AMO would be quite the fit for how this year is going. May I ask why you subtracted 93-94 (neutral year) maybe you meant 94-95? I have yet to find a Nino that didn't have a cool pool at the surface in the western edge of the equatorial pacific already forming. This year is cooler but not in the negative departure yet. Typically we see the subsurface cool in some of the stronger events around now but there are a few instances that it occurs August after that is extremely rare to happen.

They added recently back to 1947 for subsurface data on the archive site I use. Now we can take a look at the subsurface for the years prior to 1979! https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/ocean/t-eq_tcc.html