so_whats_happening

Unfortunately I dont follow closely what happens when storms come from my area west of philly to the NJ/NYC/LI region. If I had to take a guess at the situation you are pointing out wind direction I believe plays a large role for the marine layer along the coastline and how high up that layer reaches. If you get a low marine layer you can still potentially see storms as they have enough energy aloft to allow for the storm to continue versus a deeper marine layer or one higher up which would effectively stabilize a layer cutting off storm potential. Another factor for storms lasting past the diurnal swing could be CAPE aloft (ml and mu cape are some that can show potential while sb cape could be 0 or even negative (CIN)) as well as the intensity of the shortwave energy. There are probably more intricate ways of explaining this but without more knowledge of the region this is what im left with as conclusions, maybe a person closer to the coast would know better. I know being out in Lancaster sometimes we get the marine layer influence from the Chesapeake bay that cuts off storm potential when we get a SE or SSE wind but I believe wind strength plays a large role in that situation since we are good 30-40 miles away from that source.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.0 1.1 1.3 0 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.7

They will be back once we have another small uptick, im watching history unfold here.

Again with the chatter please take it to the other threads and leave this for ice. Looks like the early prediction was a false hope as we are at 3.34 mil sq km. Probably have another 2 weeks or so before we see the minimum running close. NSIDC probably just above 5 mil by the end of it all for extent. The Beaufort area has really taken a hit this month so far.

Subsurface also gaining some momentum

Can we keep this for ice discussion, glad there is chatter about this stuff but thats why there are like 3 other threads for that. I had originally thought 4.5mil was the upper bound for this season but with the rather abrupt slowdown it looks as though there is still potential to get close but looking like we fall within the range of 4.7-5mil at season minimum for extent NSIDC may actually stay above 5 mil which would be impressive. The ice while remaining above the new norm and decent retention this season still warrants concern for years to come. It took an almost near perfect pattern for us to keep the situation from going wild up there. With this year looking more and more like a second year la nina we start to question when exactly we may push the next bin and see drop offs again. The looming potential of a decent el nino within the next year or two has me worried a bit. While a rapid freeze seems to be the new norm leading into fall I hope we can actually remove some energy from the system before we start to freeze up. For now though AO pattern seems to be the key factor leading into summer melt seasons lets hope we may see some good thickening of sea ice this winter across the arctic.

Wow congratulations Rodney S some good forecasting there!

DCA +.8 NYC +1.0 BOS -0.8 ORD -1.4 ATL -0.3 IAH +0.4 DEN +1.1 PHX +0.3 SEA +1.4 Before I forget lol

The composite anomaly for 2016 instead of the SLP for the same time period as bluewaves post for comparison purposes. Not as anomalous as this year and 1989, still decent. 2016 got torn up the following month (7/16-8/16) across the region where the anomalies were. Not to mention coming off a super nino. The Pacific was struggling hard that year while if we look back at 2013 not only was the ice strong in similar locations to this year https://cryospherecomputing.tk/PastSIT.html <-- scroll to 6/1/13 and compare it to the video shown https://cryospherecomputing.tk/SIT.html (scroll down to the video) starting on 6/1/21. This year has featured more winds off the continent so ice depleted quickly along the siberian coast/ Laptev Sea area and more compaction, if you will, over toward the america/canada region. I included the 2013 anomaly plot for comparison similar placement to 1989 just not as anomalous as this year and 1989.

Maybe but probably overall an expansion in its coverage compared to what it use to be. For this you would have to look at the trends along the coastline are temperatures warmer overall? With overall warmer nights (inland) than days, days seem to be warmer in winter compared to days in summer, we can see how just a bit of added moisture can change our temperature records. I would be curious if moisture content has increased in areas that normally dont experience moisture on a regular basis like the west. I know it would be counterintuitive with more heat and forest fires out west to have more moisture in the air but it would be something of interest to check out at some point. Example: areas like phoenix when heat kicks in having dewpoints in the single digits (F) well now they are in the teens or twenties. Maybe we are seeing a switch of the AMO?

Lol you just dont read

Its funny to watch you get blasted with your retorts on every forum. I dont think I have seen you post anything but a chart and say this proves it right here what that point is Im still not understanding. Are you trying to prove the ice will be better this year? Are you saying from here on out things will be better for the arctic? We are still two days away from the heat just starting to enter the high arctic and with ridging over the area full sun will be out, yes with declining insolation each day but warm windy weather and sun is duo that even in our latitudes snow/ice melts out from this. Add in any moisture potential and the process really speeds up. There also seems to be a push from the american/canada region of ridging over the CAA with potential +2-4C anomalies showing up. Im not sure how thickness is not important in your eyes . If you are changing albedo rapidly in seasons via snow and ice extent you change the atmsophere around it. The amount of heat and energy still within the system is rather large and would take many many years of near perfect conditions to try and balance it out. Its funny its usually the ones that are grasping at straws calling other folks names, weenies, that have the least to bring to the table. lol Seems to also be rather similar to piomass numbers average of about 1.4m.

Understandable, i remember from college days of learning it was rather difficult to quantify exactly a precise percentage of cloudiness. Im sure it has definitely improved in the past ten years. I completely understand the whole quality control going on with instrument data, i work at BWI airport and they recently put in a new building which we think has definitely played a role in skewing our observations a bit, so as the faa figures out a better placement or way to confront this we sit gathering data which isnt always too far off but can be quite erratic at times. Absolutely the dewpoints have been just dumb over the past 5-10 years. Quite the jump for sure compared to the 90s and 2000s where yes we did get some high dewpoints at times but more often was a dryish heat from my recollection.

Still not entirely sure yet on hycom and its authenticity with thickness but man that looks rough if this is anywhere close to reality. Multi year ice is almost non exsistent. Forecast is for the remaining kara sea ice to be dealing with temps at least 2-4C above average for about a week and a half, beyond?? The arctic also deals with about .5-1C above average for the last bit of july and into the first week of august as -AO develops and ridging becomes the main feature the beaufort and chukchi seas may manage ok with this set up I would worry also about the central Arctic taking a hit come the end of the month. Meanwhile greenland all but goes above freezing during this time period. Just 6 hours prior to those other timestamps we have this look just rough. Still have about another month of decent melt potential in the cards especially if a pattern like this persists the rest of the season.

The only thing I can think of is Kyoto Protocal was enacted in 1997 but I dont believe it made strict cuts on anything just incentivized new cleaner technology paths instead of old paths. You would think we took another step down with the 15/16 el nino if the super nino struck up something. So at a loss with why there was a 8 year long reduction in cloud cover.

Its funny you say the tears will be flowing I think many want this situation to not be unfolding as it is. Even with current conditions this seems to be about as good as we can get with a retention/recovery year given the last decade of craziness up there with how things are still evolving and yet we are still third lowest in extent. Lets not play coy on this subject that its just going to continue this way of recovery, I would be surprised if we stay above 4.5 mil in extent this year. I personally cheer and hope that we personally did not completely ruin a region of the world and the ice can somehow come back but that hope has been fading as the years go by. I worry that another el nino will do some major damage to the ice so if we do manage to have another la nina this year its almost inevitable for a nino to follow so going into fall of 2022 and the start of 2023 offers that potential. We have at least another month and a half of true melt while insolation is not super high right now it really doesnt seem like it would take much for the pack to come crashing, it always comes down to the weather. So here I am hoping that this year may be salvageable yet and prepare itself better for the refreeze but Ill hold until we get to about mid september.

The rapid retreat of snow over land has been a killer for ice even in retention years. So even as we see this year being a rather ok year its struggling hard with the heat having very little barrier from land to ice. The albedo is struggling right now and that is a huge issue. The system is trying to figure out the new balance so im curious where it lands us. We may have an idea but we may not know the end result until its happening, such a shame.

DCA: +1.8 NYC: +2.3 BOS: +2.7 ORD: +1.7 ATL: +1.1 IAH: +0.6 DEN: +3.0 PHX: +2.5 SEA: +2.4

Wow overall max temps have been very impressive to say the least! Stay safe I know many dont have ac to deal with stuff like this.

I will be super impressed by Seattle if that verifies.

Lol yea tailing off a super nino, seems fairly typical in that sense. The last time a similiarish situation occurred was back in 2007-08/ 08-09 coming off a weak nino to a multi la nina of similar intensity. So will be interesting if we fall back into or maintain la nina status with this. Not many times do we see a setup like that. It was looking good for an el nino to fire up but subsurface is fading hard.

Thats a good thing to hear in this day and age with the current conditions of the ice. What's interesting to watch with even the fractured mess that is the ice up there we have managed an average of last decades ice (2010s extent and sea ice area). I feel like while we have been use to seeing how the Arctic can handle large volumes of ice 4m+ thick volumes, this new norm of ~2m thick ice across the arctic is interesting to see how it goes through time. How the Arctic is trying to balance itself out while not being able to release heat properly. I worry about the looming idea of a rather strong nino to come about. Wonder if we can get the AO to work properly in peak seasons to maybe help the situation better with releasing heat and keeping it out. Time will tell of course.

DCA 99 NYC 96 BOS 98 ORD 99 BIS 108 ATL 101 IAH 99 DEN 104 PHX 116 SEA 94

DCA: +1.1 NYC: +1.9 BOS: +2.3 ORD: +2.4 ATL: +0.4 IAH: 0.0 DEN: +0.7 PHX: +1.0 SEA: +1.4

DCA +1.8 NYC. +1.1 BOS. +0.7 ORD. +1.2 ATL. +2.1 IAH. +1.8 DEN. +1.9 PHX +2.3 SEA +0.4