so_whats_happening

I agree including michael they all had similar upbringings. The difference may come down to structure those were near or at hurricane status by the time it was crossing cuba this was still a developing tropical storm. That little bit of difference could easily mean a slightly lower upper value given very similar backgrounds.

It is worrisome though that a rather large eye could open up rather quickly this afternoon into the evening during what is usually a nice uptick in thunderstorm activity.

This is definitely a reasonable take structure doesn't seem fully stacked yet. Forward speed may be hindering it a bit since it can't get it structure setup? 3 seems to be the upper limit at this point unless we get heck of a surprise. Definitely trying its best to get organized quick though.

This is such an interesting evolution i do wonder if we even get surface cooling or if we just get a subsurface component enough to end the nino.

So you left it purposely ambiguous... mjo waves take 30-45 days to cycle plus it is emerging in the indian ocean.

Are you talking about the forecasted emergence around phase 3 next week? Cause that is going to take time and shouldnt have any impact until late september if it does become a wave that is

It really depends on how well the core can organize itself vertically. Definitely still some slanting going on aloft from the ULL along the Gulf coast. This should weaken a bit in the next day and I believe even some models showed it setting up a jet streak as we get close to landfall. We should know by tomorrow afternoon how well the core is stacked up. I would say cat 3 seems reasonable but if things set up just right cat 4 is attainable (cat 5 intensity is pretty difficult to attain) with the amount energy in place. Either way fun one to watch and really hope folks do take it serious down in Florida.

This! lol It has to do with pressures and land can produce lower pressures dayside than at night which will cause a low pressure to form over land versus over the ocean even on a small scale. Think of like a fujiwara type of effect interaction of two low pressure areas will cause them to spin around each other and landmasses can often act as the other low pressure to help this until upper levels become too much. Interaction of friction from land mass will also play a role in dragging the system in a certain direction. Remember the main goal is for the atmosphere to balance out so the usual negligible effects of friction become more prevalent in certain situations. Thanks for taking the time to write this Tripol.

Doing this before I forget: DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +2.5 +2.1 +2.8 +3.5 +2.1 +1.9 +1.4 +1.6 +1.3

Interaction with land mass will pull the system east or west depending on which side of the storm it is on. In this case Florida should help aid in pulling this further east in time just like it has done with past systems. Ian was an example as most models did have it near Tampa area until it wasn't. This should be the case again where we see probably some of the western most extent currently and then it slide east as we go through time. How much of the big bend gets involved how far north of Tampa it actually hits will all have to be figured out in the next day or so once we get away from land interaction around Cuba.

Not sure im seeing May style SOI values (consistently -20 to -30, with large -SOI days) but we do seem to have the troughing setting up just south of Tahiti like I had shown the other week from previous El Nino years. This should help aid in a more consistent -SOI popping up but not sure values will be all that crazy considering the Darwin region doesn't look to have sustained higher pressures, our days of +SOI will definitely more limited though. The MJO, still rather weak, is now in null and looks to push toward phase 3 by next week. Again if this actually becomes a wave it could lead to another bout of warming toward the mid to late September time frame but in between we will be playing with the wake of the MJO wave and enhanced trades. This will definitely keep a lid on things for the next two weeks maybe even cool some areas a little. From when we have enhanced trades over much of 3/3.4/4 from past situations over summer we see some warming occur in 1+2 which should occur again coming up here. You can see the change in orientation of the monthly from July to the end of August. Depth of the warmth has waned a bit over the far eastern pacific while depth in the central Pac has grown between 120-160W, which has led to an increase in OHC, and the pocket of 5C has weakened a bit and does look to be moving westward a bit. I still would really like to see cooling of the subsurface/surface in the WPAC. EPAC seems rather quiet for this time of year and being in an El Nino year. Atlantic may have another storm or two after idalia before it shuts down for a bit with the MJO wave moving into the Indian Ocean WPAC looks to get some action with -VP still pretty far west; long range is showing a push to Dateline -VP by mid September. The caveat is this has been shown in long range for quite some time over the summer and has yet to happen but with the changes in the south pacific maybe just maybe we start to push it out of the maritime continent area. This really is all dependent on this MJO actually waking up.

I think the key to how warm we get may be what we see occur in nino 3 over the next month or so. It surely wont be on the same levels as 1+2 has been but just how warm that region gets will have influence on 3.4 as we go along. Again barring no major KW event happens and if one does occur just how much subsurface heating takes place? Still thinking maybe 1.7 trimonthly max with a month that can squeeze out 2.0, should be an interesting 2-3 months coming up as by November things should be pretty much settled. I forgot what page I mentioned it on but had thought progression for each month was about 0.3C increase and so far it has held true. So back at the beginning of June I mentioned it was about a .9-1.0C in 3.4 so to keep on track it would have to go 1.2-1.3 July, 1.5-1.6 August, 1.8-1.9 September, with a peak in October around 2C then a slow demise.(Im not sure August may hit those levels though) I still can't fathom how we are to get to 2.2-2.5C if we don't pick up the pace. Dynamical models were the upper levels 2.0-2.5 range while statistical were around 1.2-1.4C in between seems to be the right path. Even if we do get to a monthly of 2C will we really have the same impact of 2C or will the impact be less. I wanna wait until we see maybe some MJO activity outside of near null. There is a distinct possibility that we have a brief cooling to rise again and maybe have a later peak (closer to December) which if that is the case it could very well work in favor for some fun. That would be a very 2009-10 esq scenario.

Yea i have this feeling we may have peaked in 1+2, until the nino dies which we may revisit those upper numbers again toward end of winter. It looks as though a solid bout of trades picks up again to close out the month as the weak mjo wave moves. Given this i dont expect another warming progression until mid to late september at the earliest. Let us see how everything holds up. We still dont have the -surface/subsurface across much of the WPAC yet. So in true nino fashion i expect at least one more big KW before we may peak out in October, maybe November depending on timing. I dont expect a quick demise after this but that will have to be worked out closer to when this progression happens.

Seems as though you expect a lot of SE/east coast ridging, if we happen to get the hurricane season in full force the next month and half would the percentages swing at all?

Nice daily or weekly PDO? Also is that on the climate reanalyzer site? Yea you can see the persistence of the ridge in the NW PAC region. You can see a rather drastic difference in the high latitudes where low pressure has been fairly present across the Arctic this year leaving mid latitude ridging instead of like we saw in 97 and 82. 2015 was a bit different but overall still pretty consistent with the other years (bit of a mix happened that year, but we also already had rather warm temps across the entire basin leading into the El Nino development. 1972 actually was not too far off from what is happening but in all of these cases the southern hemisphere definitely had more anomalous troughing around Tahiti region versus what we are currently seeing.

That looks to choke off the EPAC hurricane season a bit, which is unusual in an el nino. Atlantic may have 1 or 2 pop up from that look but they may struggle. WPAC may go in for a bit again. That should definitely help with the PDO signal to more of a neutral look. Although we are seeing some pretty stark cooling in spots of Ne pac over recent days to week.

But the monsoon typically ends this time of year im not sure i understand that if the IOD goes positive that the monsoon season will end, quicker. Ending of the season would probably bolster a spike in IOD. The positive also seems like it is from a really warm western indian ocean rather than a better gradient of warm west cool east. We have cooled near the maritime but still are fighting to have sustained negative anoms outside of nw australia.

The IOD only took four months to finally reach semi positive status...

Thank you for that will have to watch how it unfolds going forward. Just trying to get a better understanding where you are coming from is all. I feel the other factors may have better significance in helping explain that but it is interesting!

Using last year as an example we had rather positive readings in the same location but a firmly -PNA, PDO definitely played a role in enhancing that.

So you are correlating from western edge of 3.4 near 4 as whether or not we get a +/- PNA? Unfortunately 97/98 is a little out of order when it loaded but would argue 97/98 had a much better push of negative subsurface anoms.

Unfortunately those two timeframes only showed significant negative subsurface anoms come JFM coming in from nino 4 and then eventually east by march. While i do get your thought process from this there is intrinsically some lag to that type of setup i feel. Definitely an interesting concept though from you and raindance about subsurface and OHC, respectively. Will have to keep a watch and see if things like this hold up going forward.

Yea it is not to say we wont get another punch of subsurface warmth. It honestly looks to be reloading in the WPAC again but would think it would have a further west impact than what we have seen thus far. Nino 4 continues to be the one seeing temps rising while the others seem rather stagnant if not cooling still. I wanna wait and see how the slight reversal in the far EPAC reacts but we really do look to be going into a more classic nino mode as of now.

I forget his name at this point but yea not great moves. Stopped going there about 2 years ago because of everything that was being said. I wish folks the best of luck though.

Welcome, yea not a great move on his part but he kind of soiled that with his wild rants. Anyway welcome and if you ever have questions feel free to ask, dont be discouraged.