so_whats_happening

Persistent Ridging in the Gulf of Alaska had a NW flow pattern for the general timeline of January 2013-December 2015. Edit to add on this was the general pattern for 2010-2012 which showed our area in a relatively warmer pattern. I will say smoothing over year to year doesn't do it justice but gives you a general idea of why things happened that way.

Very cool to see that temp drop in 2012-2015. Those were the years of the RRR. Can see the super Nino in the late 90s can see a spike in temps around Pinatubo (may not be directly affecting it just interesting). One thing of note though is the variability in year over year temps is much larger (larger swings) even with an ever increasing baseline.

Quite the warm anomaly in the east lol

DCA: +2.1 NYC: +1.6 BOS: +1.9 ORD: +2.1 ATL: +0.9 IAH: +1.6 DEN: +2.4 PHX: +0.7 SEA: +0.8

I and am sure many others on here appreciate the commitment you have to doing this every month and even messaging us personally for monthly temp submissions (this is appreciated as I at least get an email that reminds me). I enjoy this as a test of skills and just some fun. I will respect whatever decision you make for the upcoming year but would love to see this contest continue. If you need help from time to time don't be afraid to ask. I and am sure many others would happily step in from time to time if need be to give you a break if that would be much easier on you. I can ask in another forum I am in if they would like to join, many of which are just enthusiasts but like to dabble in long range discussion so maybe a little friendly competition? I can see how the commitment to keeping a regular time schedule with forecasts can be very difficult have had some issues myself. This is what I think discourages people from joining more often. I hate to give up the idea of this being a contest though but that probably discourages those who loosely would play.

Was this to take place of KMUI? Also just saw it online at AWC for the first time.

I haven't looked at winds all too much with this but would probably be when we get the system off the delmarva. Best bet is to take a look at what is going on around DCA/BWI as the low comes up the coast. Looks like it may pop out at the mouth of the Chesapeake. Most were pushing it just SE of Baltimore flooding us with warmth.

According to FV3 it says within the next hour.

We may be in peak heating right now for 850mb. Nice cool pool forming through central PA and decent frontogenesis occurring across VA. Which could suggest we do get a random burst of snow/sleet occur and then back over to rain/FZR. Over the next 6 hours or so is when we see some of the heaviest precip so this would be the time we test how 'warm' the boundary is. We may get another fun time to watch as the surface low gets caught just east of 95 or offshore short range has been varying with placement of that low which could make a random chance of seeing another bit of snow/ sleet later on this evening.

It will be interesting to see how it handles the next couple hours. Says there may be a burst of snow in the Susquehanna Valley.

Unfortunately no but I would assume this may be the last winter for it as they fine tune FV3 more. Im sure it will still be in running just not in the spot light.

NAM is to be replaced by FV3

Haha thats pretty funny. I actually went to school with him. Had horst as the lead forecaster when I was there.

That statement solely relies on the pacific pattern at the time and serves no other purpose other than to shift the storm track further south. I think a better statement would be it gives opportunity to have colder air to funnel with a -NAO versus a +NAO if the pacific pattern cooperates enough leading into the development of the NAO (whichever phase comes about). I feel we have been far too lucky with getting a -EPO/+PNA pattern within a -NAO regime that it gives us this sense cold will be there when we get a -NAO, hence a big reason many associate the -NAO with a cold pattern. Honestly with all this talk none of this was even remotely intended toward you, you just happen to think the statement was about what you had said, not entirely sure why you felt that way but hey to each their own. I wanna say raindance's comment of -NAO was in jest toward the lot of people saying it will be a December to remember as is usually the case pointed out almost every year and then on top of it posting GFS maps of warm anomalies as we are transitioning into a west based -NAO during that timeframe. GFS unfortunately is a bit wonked out of its mind right now 0 consistency run to run so it was in bad taste.

Yea 2010 was a bit of an oddball situation with a -PNA and -NAO and widespread cold. Not to say a -PNA/-NAO combo doesn't produce cold and at that coast to coast, it can and does happen just not very often. This year is different in that we did not have a -NAO leading up to that cold period like in 2010. We had a fairly weak -NAO if you want to call it that with similar ridging pattern in the Alaska region leading up to current time. So cold got to build up in the similar regions except now it is just being released along the west instead of across the country. Talk about anomalous -PNA though in 2010. Here are the 2 weeks leading up to the end of November you can see the similarities between the two years except for one fairly noticeable difference and that is the lack of -NAO leading up to December this year. If we had that -NAO present it would have been able to funnel in the cold much better. We also had a very weak MJO basically null that month so not much influence in that department versus this year we have a more pronounced wave making its presence known and throwing curveballs at us.

It definitely was implied just a few posts above. Right a -NAO just provides staying power into a pattern if the cold got released in any other instance, it simply doesn't mean a cold pattern.

Little bit of cringe going on here. It is well known -NAO does not bring cold temps into the US so im not sure where that is coming from. Didn't have a -NAO with the cold blast in November even with a neutral to negative PNA sticking around we reduced the heat anomalies easily by half. -NAO is all about storm track and slowing the forward speed of systems. I personally would rather take my chances with temps near or slightly above average as a whole than have a ton of cold pressing down east of the Mississippi. Suppression/depression with missed opportunities off the coast no thanks. Many areas need rain and would rather see the rain falling then see the constant bickering of no snow. Plus it is only December folks need to relax a bit.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -1 -1.2 -1.5 -1.4 +1 +1.8 -1.4 +1.2 0 DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV 18 38 64 45 38 110 42 11 84 Little late but wanted to do more of the snowfall contest than anything

As always thanks Roger!

When the central portion of the storm crosses land. It should be making landfall soon if it hasn't already. Definitely took more of NW track recently so this may delay actual landfall a bit. ASOS readings indicate it should be over land.

I see this being very possible to start out December maybe not quite on those extremes but nonetheless a +NAO/-PNA pattern. This look will potentially be especially true if we do indeed come into phase 5 again toward the end of the month. I believe as we close out the month of December that would be our next opportunity to allow for cold and snow potential outside of around turkey day in the east and midwest. I mentioned on another forum this really is looking like a back and forth winter for us in the east. So how the rest of November plays out of course. Im also rather happy to see the west coast getting into some action. Can not believe what Arizona and New Mexico look like on the drought monitor havent seen it at those levels in a long long time.

Last week of November could feature warmth again as this cool down does look abrupt and cold but rather brief.

Im sure in the past those two instances had occurred unfortunately the amount of data we have only takes us so far. I wanna say it is probably harder to sustain a triple el nino phase though as it is considered such an anomaly versus triple dip ninas which are an exaggeration of the normal pattern.

I gotta agree there does seem to be some cyclical pattern to triple dip Ninas. The overall trend though still does show that temps in ocean basins continue to warm so impacts of these triple dips may be different with time than say what we experienced in the turn of the millennium or back in the mid 70s. Each triple dip Im sure has its own flavor too as differing atmospheric patterns occur during these time periods than say what we are in currently for example AMO/PDO, etc. If it is somewhat in that range of time 7-22 years we could see another decent cooldown of the tropical pacific waters come the end of the decade. ~22 years has been my go to for seeing triple dips.

Subsurface warming starting to dip in the normal location may be the end of the subsurface look for the Nina at least as we move into November. Im not sure we fully get out of cold neutral through most of the winter though, especially 3.4/4 as expected, have to see how this materializes.