so_whats_happening

Congrats RJay!

Looks like the CFS is pushing west with the higher anoms fits with the idea of the -EPO pattern. This opens up the door for another recurving hurricane as you mentioned with the potential of another FL east coast rider if one were to occur. The highs coming in the east are rather impressive coming up. At least for the foreseeable future west coast ridge east coast troughing should occur. We seem to be having another broad wind event across the Pac so this should help spread the Nina out a bit and allow a little relaxing period again toward early November where the 1+2 and 3 region warms up as the waters push back to 3.4 and 4. Subsurface still looks pretty intact though.

DCA +.7 NYC +.4 BOS 0 ORD +1.4 ATL -.5 IAH +.4 DEN +1.5 PHX +1.7 SEA +2.5

Guess not technically water vapor will have a net cooling effect in the stratosphere. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

One random thought with the Hunga Tonga Eruption. Releasing that much water vapor into the upper atmosphere would this not potentially induce a warming within the stratosphere with that large amount of water vapor being added? If we induce a warming in the stratosphere from the incoming solar radiation is it possible this then allows the tropospheric portion to cool or be cooler? I know SO2 is usually the main driver in inducing cooling hemispherically or globally, depending on location of the eruption, but wouldn't water vapor create a similar process but one that is thermodynamically driven. It surely will be up in those portions of the atmosphere for many many years to come and should be most likely a southern hemisphere thing but would love to know what that amount of water vapor could do to the system. We are technically starting to get within the time frame where large volcanic eruptions show up in some data, usually is about 6 months after the eruption.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +1.4 +1.5 +2.1 +1.7 +0.7 +0.6 +1.2 +0.7 +2.5

^^^ That would be a lovely pattern into winter, if only. We may get another round of easterlies coming up here.

Think this lead system is the sacrifice storm may get to a TS but will have to watch how the ULL interact in the Atlantic, GEM also has a weak system and another potential to watch in western Caribbean/ GOM area. Either way both look to take it to about the Antilles area by Day 10

Gotta admit it was a little later than I expected but yea this is about to get interesting. The system in the Gulf/ Caribbean comes from the Central American Gyre and then just sits along the coast for a few days. It only takes one...

This is a fair point they don't always need to correlate. PDO tends to produce a more -PNA regime but not always. I do remember seeing the record -PDO last year while I believe we had a -EPO/+PNA (went to neutral as we pushed into Decemeber) regime at the same time, was pretty impressive to see. Yea we definitely need a +PNA for our classic storms but we can manage pretty well with a -PNA sometimes usually our fun anafront situations. Nothing like going from 50's-60's to heavy wet snow in 24 hours.

I could agree with that intensity may not be the issue. It may be where forcing takes place. If we look at 2010-2011 season we went to strong La Nina status but the cold pool was so far west that it actually ended up being beneficial for us in the east. That with the situation of a -NAO pattern present from the solar minimum that was around at the time. The biggest difference between than and this time frame is the east coast waters. Back then waters were warm south of Greenland and rather chilly across much of the east coast. Right now waters are just wayyy too warm across much of the eastern sea board. This promotes a ridging like pattern (normally) which in turn would drive weather systems inland with pushing of the baroclinic zone on the coast or just inland, as you stated very +NAO like regime. That would be in conjunction of - PNA pattern bearing a -PDO sticks around too. 2016-17 was an interesting one had another scenario with the coldest waters in Nino 4 similar to this year (so far) and warming as you went east. The result was a pretty barren snow land of a winter in the mid atlantic, not entirely sure about the NE though ( I would think interior did well that year with how the 500mb pattern setup). The cooling couth of Greenland seemed to help re-enforce the idea of +NAO that season. I think the biggest concerns for the upcoming winter scenario could be how extensive those warm waters are in the east. Do they reach up to around Greenland and help promote a pseudo -NAO regime at times or do we get a cooling that occurs just south of Greenland giving it +NAO regime? Also how extensive the Pacific ridge would be do we see a scenario of ridging along the west coast or is it more confined to the Aleutians? We definitely do not want ridging along the coast and a +NAO that is just a death spell (11-12). I would gladly take a 10-11 scenario of -NAO and forcing rather far west where the ridge was near the Aleutians.

There is hope for it but the fact is as we approach fall we 'normally' strengthen the ENSO state whichever it may be and with us sitting at a previous trimonthly of -1.0 already and the subsurface I have concerns. This just highlights the east coast waters well.

The waters off the east coast and up to nova scotia have just been so flippin warm over the past couple years it really is getting difficult to get true miller A patterns setup feel like the baroclinic zone has just been setting up over the coastal plain rather than offshore. Im not liking how far west based the Nina is, if I remember correctly 2011 was the last west based Nina and winter was well... Feel the eerie 2011 vibes right now with SST configuration in the tropical pacific. See how it plays out.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +1 +1.2 +1.4 +1.4 +0.9 +2.1 +2.2 +1.1 +1.6 Thanks Roger

When you state anti logs this means (last image as an example) the country as a whole would be slightly cooler than average for DJF with an emphasis of northern rockies and front range to be cooler than the rest? Just trying to clarify.

To add the only thing different from this year to last is we had a weakening La Nina where this year it has maintained itself much longer. Im not exactly sure how that will play out for this year but if we look at the last 3 peat La Nina episodes (final year of it) 1975 and 2000 they both had low ACE ratings but activity didn't pick up until about mid August. Give it like 3 weeks before we start ringing those potential low activity bells.

Lol I mean we have a similar progression so far in MJO this year (maybe a week or two earlier) to last and you see what happened last year we pushed into 1/2 things took off mid august. Will it happen exactly like this maybe not but cant discredit the fact the pattern seems to be going this way.

It looks like we have gone into full on step function mode via the volume chart. Next leg down mid 2020's with the looming El Nino?

Seem to be reloading

Is it possible that with extent numbers still relatively higher than the descending average and choppy ice that we see a quicker cooldown scenario going into fall allowing for a potential of thicker ice as we move into the winter? I assume this would not allow for heat to escape in anyway shape or form from the ocean though.

I know this tends to not be everyone's favorite but this is just abysmal. Mind you we are only about mid July right now too. Still have a solid month of decent melt that can occur. GFS has been trying to push the idea of another ridging episode in the last week or so of July too which may just be the final push needed to melt out Beaufort, ESS, and parts of CAA. Somehow the Atlantic front is still sustaining itself even though it was the weakest portion of the ice starting into the melt season.

Lol I dont think anyone in here besides stormchaserchuck has mentioned el nino. A gradual waning though for sure seems to be in the picture as we move into winter but I have my doubts we maintain anything more than cold neutral through winter even with this incoming burst. Nino 4 will be the last to warm so it seems while areas in 1+2 and 3 will be a bit back and forth for the rest of summer into fall, 3.4 will be tricky with a balancing affect.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +1.9 +1.8 +2.1 +1.5 +1.4 +1.8 +2.4 +1.6 +0.9

Ain't looking good with another round of warmth showing up after the 4th of July across Alaska and the very northern reaches of Canada.

So at this point we are going with the idea of nino 4 holding on to the cold still while 1+2 and 3 should start to warm up slowly and work west over time. Nice move in the upper levels taking place. So probably not quite making third year La Nina status..