so_whats_happening

Keep expanding those waters and dip the thermocline more and we will match June soon enough. It looks like maybe getting close to +2C anomaly in 3.4 toward the middle to end of month is getting more likely. Again sustainability is in question but if we do get a little burst of a +AAM atmosphere mode like we saw back in March and May it could lead to the positive push that has been talked about. The hope is the Westerlies do not die before then, otherwise it will just be another quick spike. Here is just a four day difference in GFS modeled Hovmollers you can see the area across Nino regions is opening up a bit which should allow the warming to start up again. The overall WWB is weaker than what was originally forecasted just four days earlier not a thing you wanna see a weakening WWB as we get closer. The IOD region is the one that is far more noticeable in change as we head to the end of the month. Maybe a fluke run but that would be an ending of trades across that region.

Again I get where you are coming from but it is not there yet as for overall OHC value when comparing the two June is still higher even with it placed differently. Here is August 25 in comparison to Nov 3 which if using CPC OHC chart end of August peaked at just about 1.25 area which right now we are just under 1.2.

BTW just got the chance to read your forecast. Good insight and thanks for the MJO plot link. Best of luck on your forecast!

@GaWx Im not sure if you knew but you can use two dates to compare here is a comparison of the two dates June 21st is the top and Nov 3rd is the bottom. I narrowed it down to only showing 100-180W and only the upper 300m.

Sure I guess we agree to disagree. I would contact CPC to know more about the formats they use but you have to also remember intensity does help compensate for areal coverage and both together add even more to the values. I wouldn't call this the warmest the event has been but again we can agree to disagree. In June we were cracking +6 anomalies where we barely have a +5 showing up now but overall more +3 than back then. To add onto this here was CPC Subsurface from end of June to end of August you can see the areal coverage has overall been about the same but the intensity of these pockets has waxed and waned literally the same thing that was shown on TAO. By the same argument of using the look at it approach shouldn't August have been warmer OHC wise versus June? Again the best thing to do would be contacting CPC to get a better idea of the domain used for their OHC graph, Im sure they would gladly help you out with that. I could maybe ask the guy I work with but he is in a different department (OPC) so he might not have a solid answer.

This was the CPC update for Nov 4th which is the latest the OHC is likely updated until.

Why would the TAO be in sync with CPC they are two different sources of data, even though they are observing the same thing. It is just like looking at the differences in OISST to CRW SST's they are different while doing the same thing. If you wanna compare apples to apples use something on CPC, unless CPC has an archive somewhere that I am not aware of this is the closest you will get to what is being portrayed back in time. As for the differences from a monthly stand point of June to a 5 day average in November maybe it is best left to compare to another 5 day period not a month. If the month for November comes in at 1.4 similar to June then we can compare the monthly average. This is what 1.35 value on CPC page looks like in June for a 5 day average for TAO. This is what around 1.2 looks like to CPC site which updated to Nov 4th. Also a not quite as high peak in late August about 1.25 lets say

These were a 1.4C anomaly from the same website on October 1991, September 2002. This was the time period at the end of April that had a peak almost exactly where the graph shows for OHC currently.

just look on that site and see what it was from cpc for June. 1.4 intensity was more in June than November subsurface coverage about the same.

Using this webpage from CPC website for the OHC upper 300m. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt You can take a look at 1991 where it had an OHC around 1.22 for 100-180W and this was the look.

A look at the last week only there is something funky holding on around 120W and about 100-150m below the surface just not allowing a dip in the thermocline. From the last push of cooler waters in this region we have had this keeping things different in the subsurface compared to what we would see in a DWKW situation. I'm not entirely sure what the reason for this feature, it has been a thing since back in March. Is this due to the further west than typical WWB placement and strength this year?

That is something else. 80 degree temps and being 15-20 above average in locations is impressive for November. Looks like the pattern we had in October set up over there in the early portion of November.

Maybe you see what a +2C looked like back in 1991 we have some work to get it higher. If we do indeed see the strength of the WWB shown I would expect some more warming to occur. The trick of it all is to see continual WWB and have them propagate eastward. The WWB action need to not necessarily be the strength they were when initiated but to have constant weakening of trades further east, as of now that is not showing up. Ill do a comparison of charts then when we start to get closer to the peak WWB. I do believe these are fairly close to what the OHC numbers look like from NOAA. Also it is not 5 day average to the date shown, the date shown is the last of the 5 day period. I do every 2 days to account for some changes to not be missed and show a better progression, except on archive data where it puts me at 5 day intervals already.

So looking back at 1991 we had some weakening of trade winds that started back in September, probably even before that, across much of the Pacific basin so we started the DWKW process around mid September we had a two week period around the beginning to middle of October that featured less WWB action but it picked right back up in earnest going into Halloween and as you posted November. That is nearly 3 months worth of continual east propagating WWB action from September to November/December. We currently have our event around 150E and it has lasted about a month thus far it is possible to see a spike and not sure if that would happen or not yet but here was the subsurface from about mid September onward to the new year. There is a fairly similar look in the subsurface just different placement and overall intensity differs between this year and 1991 so far. Key notes we saw a whole ENSO region moderate WWB event at the beginning of September that started the process we saw a weakening of this as we went into October before picking back up in early November and lasting into the new year. OHC continued to rise another .7C, after the slow down in October area was around 1.2C for 180-100W, topping out at around 2C in January with a peak in January at a trimonthly of 1.7 with a peak 3.4 at 1.89C.

Yea it has been quite dry still, thought we turned the corner back in July where we nearly doubled monthly totals and even through September we were solidly getting rain but October just hit a wall after the first week. This may still be the influence of a strong -PDO in place the battle between the two has been showing up since March. Yes it has been increasing slowly even with how solid the WWB's have been. Here is the latest look the area around 120W and about 150m down is still causing some issues with the thermocline changing up and taking on a more typical El Nino look of exceedingly warm anomalies in that region. This is the graph setup I have thrown together of this El Nino thus far, didn't really move much of a needle in October even with the second half featuring the the downwelling Kelvin wave. I do expect it to continue to warm but not drastically as of right now.

This is the last 2 week image so far for this event I will wait another 2 weeks but pretty sure we already peaked. You can still sustain easterlies in a +IOD event, such as this, and still have a weakening +IOD. The fact that this is already into the western IO means we are limiting just how much those values peak. I included a still image of 1997 when it had the strongest winds across the entire IO, it stretched from Sumatra to Somalia where we seem to currently have them more concentrated further west. 1997 was just better coupled to say the least.

Since we are talking IOD now here were the last 5 decent to very strong +IOD events: 1994-95: Peaked at around 2 in early November 1997-98: Peaked around 4 in mid December 2006-07: Peaked around 2.3 mid December 2015-16: Peaked at 1.3 in early November 2019-20: Peaked at 3.3 in early December So average timeframe to look for peak is from early November to mid December. Virtually all of them went negative by May with 2006-07 being the one that held on into summer. Used this since it was a nice visual approach but only goes to 1993 which is fine enough for seeing the evolution of these events. I wouldn't expect this to act differently compared to ENSO. https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/overlay-iod/ Anyway here were the 850mb zonal wind anomalies starting from Sept 1. Most went positive around the beginning of summer and this year was no different. Just keep in mind peak timeframe when looking at these gifs and the lead up look to peak.

For sure forecasts are rough at best Ill have to check out the pattern globally with what looks like strong +AAM mode versus a strong -AAM mode. If I remember correctly a lot of wave break activity is -AAM regime and more blocking type pattern tends to be +AAM regime. Since -AAM tends to send energy poleward and helps with the SPV and TPV versus +AAM tends to focus things more equatorward weakening the SPV and TPV. This was one of those things not taught too often during schooling besides it being there, feel this is some grad level information.

Im still not entirely sure yet this is peak but we seemingly may be close, the SSTA has not reacted to the WWB like I thought it would thus far except in subsurface look. As for the PNA I have thought for awhile now this would be back and forth through the season especially with the ever present -PDO regime we have. I do agree though on the El Nino at some point in the near future should try to take hold January does seem reasonable and a slow decline in SSTA through the winter. We may see this being a similar look to last March but just anomalies in the opposite spots (last March was a warm east and cool up to about the dateline).

It is the same map from the atlas webpage just on a different site. Thanks for the 365 one.

Nothing suggests that at the moment but it wouldn't be invalid to have a wave rising up in 4-5 from time to time. 6-7 look ehh so weak passing (near null) to pop out near 7/8 border and travel to 1 before circling around again. Way too difficult to say that is what will happen but if we see any noticeable weakening of the subsidence from the +IOD going forward then it becomes worrisome as that would allow a potential more solid wave through those regions.

I would consider it neutral but yea nothing seems wrong. If you look at the plot further down you can see most of Sept and Oct were indeed negative. Very different from the strong +AAM pattern that was around in May and June which was in tandem to a large warming episode across 3.4. This would suggest that El Nino atmospherically is still there, somewhat, but there are other things driving what we are seeing at the moment.

Essentially not allow MJO movement through 1-2-3. Technically 1 does also present itself in the EPAC as well. So we may still see it push into 1 going forward but get shunted back into null if the cooling across the IO continues.

For anyone looking for a current look to AAM this seems to update often enough. https://phillyweatherauthority.com/global-wind-oscillation/ OISST finally updated and had brief spike to 1.84C now sitting around 1.7C but not liking that warming in the NW PAC/ Japan region again. IOD continues to slowly weaken due to the spreading of the cold anomalies westward but we are still technically positive since the difference is still positive overall. This may lock up any 1-2-3 in MJO movement as we go forward. With such warm anomalies near the Aleutians there may not be much of Aleutian low this year and something shown by the latest Euro update. Cooling the waters in the NW Atlantic giving us that tri-pole look. Waters of the Mexican coastline down to South America are cooling still which should allow at some point before the new year 1+2 to be cooler than 4 anomaly wise. It is likely that Nino 3 has peaked back at the end of August/ early September ~2.3C we should be nearing peak in 3.4 this month, whatever those values may be, then continue the slow decay as we go through winter. By spring this should be a shell of itself (March area).