so_whats_happening

I would 100% get information from the schools on their programs. Depending on whether you are getting a broad approach to meteorology or looking for something more specific (tropical, thunderstorms, winter weather, climate, etc) will help narrow down the choices. Since you are an Ohio state resident I would definitely recommend visiting the college. Email an advisor or the head of the department and they may be able to guide you in ways to set up a visit and get just a day experience in what it would be like and a tour of their facilities to know whether it is something you want to continue with or not. I personally went in state being that there are only 2 met programs within the state and multitude of earth science programs and while Earth sciences was an interest and with it being at many schools it was a nice option but it was meteorology that really grabbed my attention most and that is probably an important aspect to nail down, curriculum is relatively similar to whatever school you go to. Would recommend a year of community college to get some electives out of the way cheap (always make sure they transfer properly to wherever you choose) and to give yourself some time to make final decisions being that you are finishing your senior year? I want to say I know someone who recently graduated from Ohio University and landed a job at a NWS in TX. So there is opportunity just make the most of that opportunity when you can. Hope this helps and good luck it is a tough major remember that.

Wow at that u anom map i was waiting to see it update but did not expect to see a wide region of enhanced trades. You can tell this last episode did try to buckle the pattern though. Forecasts past 7 days have been rather rough so lets see where we go from here. Im more curious where the tropical activity will pick up this year.

Yea feel like i have been mentioning it for awhile something just felt off this year. Again who knows maybe we do see a dramatic reversal take place but as of now moderate seems likely. Had for the longest time felt weak nino but it does have a chance still of some moderate even potential strong readings if things can get going. Otherwise yea lack of wwb really hurting the chances. Id be curious with the westward propagating wwb and trades if we manage another warming potential in the 1+2 region again come mid to late june. Still early to know for surr yet. With this slight weakening of trades in the next week most things should maintain status quo but given lack of anything in the pipeline right now should continue to weaken temps as we head through june.

it sure did

Only issue I have seen just recently with Bom is the forecast of MJO. Ever since it crossed the 4/5 it has consistently shown a strong MJO wave chugging along through 6/7/8. That has yet to happen in fact as weird as it is the GFS actually hit the nail on the head with the MJO progression thus far. Meaning if Bom was right it would have really set the stage for a powerful El Nino to take hold as it would have likely eroded the trades around the dateline quite substantially as we see it now it still is struggling but not for trying to get past the dateline. We will have a brief 2-3 days here where we see some nice relaxing around the dateline before seemingly having another round of decent trades poking their head in. Many of the models that predicted a low amplitude MJO wave show it peaking around 1.5-1.9 (maybe briefly into super category but trimonthlies stay in strong category) while Bom is pushing near 2.5 if not close to the strongest warming we have seen. No doubt overall the WWB event got halted around 150E and in fact some forecasts show a westward propagating WWB with trades pushing westward so this would indicate overall VP is still over maritime region with little indication of this heading east. The interesting part about that is we saw the exact same thing happen back in February which led to a weakening of trades and thus a WWB event across the eastern Pac. This could very well happen again which would help again slowly expand the warmer waters westward into 3/3.4, ENSO 4 may be a struggle for awhile. If we can manage a nice uptick in 3.4 over the next month or so it gives confidence in a strong event otherwise still moderate may be the way to go for now. As for the PDO talk, while NE Pac has undoubtedly warmed overall the -PDO is not gone. We still have the warm tongue east of Japan and the overall coolness enveloping the the periphery. The biggest shake up to see things move around will be getting rid of that warm tongue, if we can at least start to push toward a neutral mode it stands a chance at topping near strong but otherwise again conflicting signs dont typically work out well.

Yes you can see what the lack of westerlies across the dateline region has done. The subsurface has not punched the warmth eastward allowing for large scale cool anomalies in the the IO west pacific to pop up. The development while definitely warmer has an overall 17-18 vibe still with lack of subsurface warm pool transport as we saw in other solid El Nino events. Still a weee bit early to call it a head fake though. I feel we keep kicking the can down the road in expecting a solid transition it was march when we saw the intense warm up in 1+2 and here we are almost 2 months later without a substantial switch up to warrant many in here to say above moderate status is likely. I personally still feel pushing moderate is a bit much but we shall see i think it slowly can get its way up there. Trimonthlies will be the test of course. If we dont see a solid reaction in june from this ongoing wwb i doubt much will come of it at this rate because soon enough july will hit lol.

Yea it is a shame to see but for sure it would at least throw a potential our way come winter, if it holds. Definitely would be nice to shake this up but this also has potential issues for the sea ice and the arctic across the CAA with rapid decline of snow across Canada from this. Just east of there had record warmth last year during mid to late summer.

Made this real quick just to show subsurface look for the last two Super Ninos, 1997 was just a beast! Here is the website for those interested. Goes back to 1979 https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/ocean/t-eq_tcc.html

Solid! Models are catching onto the tropical activity around 150E from my post the other day. Gotta say GFS sniffed that out pretty well seems to have a solid handle on some aspects as of right now so it will be interesting to watch the results of this. Nice MJO spike with activity abound in the SW Pacific. So it seems as though we can't seem to get a passage of a WWB event past this region, trades are just holding on tight and what seems to be a continuation is 1+2 will warm again via Kelvin wave activity and slowly spread the warmth across the region. Honestly would really like to see the trades relax more and allow a WWB through doesn't have to be that strong throughout just needs to be enough to allow a solid overall weakening and maybe even reversal? Could see some interesting forecasts if we can see that in June until then we wait. PDO is taking a solid beating, unfortunately NW Canada is on fire big time been getting smoke well aloft for the last week and a half. Starting to see the changes needed to resemble a +PDO look trying to switch things up 7 day change doing its thing.

You can see how the GFS develops a tropical system (equatorial Rossby wave) right around the area the hovmollers set it up around 150E. This brings about the idea of a nice WWB event and a spike in the MJO but many models seem to now be trending into the MJO dead idea. Here is the GFS and Euro for reference.

I feel like I keep seeing this reference to El Nino development of yester year, im not exactly sure what this references early 1900's mid 1900's? Can you post examples of such events and how they progressed other than referencing solely 82/83/. 97/98, or 15/16? All this while also coming off a 3 year La Nina event and having a rather cold PDO signal. I can't find many to reference some Im curious what these yester years are. What did MJO look like during the spring? OLR and VP data shouldn't be too hard to find. I mean even 500mb charts will do or SST anoms. Something to help give us a clue what that means because im not gathering that from tweets. It seems like we are seeing steps being taken back on the whole Super Nino idea even from these tweets. ASO of max 2C is a step down from some of the model looks of nearing 2.5C if not higher by that time. Honestly moderate seems to be the best potential as of right now and that may be stretching it basing it off of the idea we happen to get continual WWB events, it is very possible to not see tri-monthlies back to back to back above 1.5C by fall. We also need the MJO out of 4-6 and not dead.

Again just forecasts for this time period but not the right direction in fact we may start to see some cooling taking place in 1+2 and 3 from these warm temps. This may help create forcing to stay in the maritime region. This ultimately does look like it will produce a Kelvin wave that should make its way east in time. PDO region is warming but look at the warm tongue still holding on east of Japan that doesn't exactly tell me a flip in the PDO. Noticed the -EPO is really digging into the NW PAC/ western Canada the past week and to continue into the next week so this will surely help raise the PDO region. I hate to be this person but this is still not a great look for a Nino moderate still on the tables strong may be slowly slipping away if this continues, upper level winds (200mb) still show an anomalous westerly component over the tropics this helps induce a sinking motion further east in the pacific and South America area with a continuation of decent trades. Still just way too murky and nothing straight forward telling me this is going to go full El Nino just yet. Maybe this is our precursor year? Still has been a thought in my head.

Well I know we talked about this in the winter thread this past season. Maybe we can finally get the western ridging we missed so much, that should at least help filter in the cold potential. Now watch the -NAO will just disappear this year...

Very much agree with the before 1990 sentiment. We have overall been in a -PDO pattern since about 2000 briefly pushing neutral positive for 02-03, 09-10, and was already well positive for 15-16. I would argue 02-03 and 09-10 stick out for me considering the coming off of La Nina conditions and not already having a warm basin. Not to say we have similar to those years for winter but it is interesting to note those were some of the snowiest years around the area after 2000, 13-14 was another good year although we were in neutral setting (slightly cool). I wonder what the sst configuration would look like if we took out 15-16 in your last two. BTW im sure it was just a quick mistake but the last two are 14-15 not 15-16 if that is what you were going for.

The thing I would question is how is this El Nino really going to go. Near record levels of -PDO with no flip imminent, almost every portion of the tropics showing anomalous warmth with right now 1+2 showing the highest anomalous warmth. We are barely ticking things over into weak El Nino territory in 4/3.4/3 while 1+2 has remained near strong to super levels. The lack of cooling around Australia and the maritime is important to note as well as the warming up again of the Atlantic tropical waters. If you want the main focus of warming and forcing to be with the central an eastern Pacific these other factors you certainly do not want to see. It will be again interesting to watch the next month to see what happens. If the MJO wave dies into null it will be probably hard to stop the kelvin wave associated with the WWB but just how much influence will it have other than opening up the potential for a bit more warming or sustaining the East Pac El Nino signal with a slight reduction in trades. This is certainly a flavor of ENSO we have not seen in quite some time or in general has not happened. Unfortunately I wanna say global SSTs are really throwing things off. If we had this exact same setup say 40 years ago would we have had the 1+2 region pushing 2.5-3C above average? I feel it may have been a push to 1-1.5C in 1+2 and then a slow warm up across the eastern Pac which we all would have then said ok looks like maybe a weak to moderate El Nino but with again on average SSTs being almost 1-1.5C above average globally are we really going to push strong to super status? We should be taking off in the next month if we are to match AMJ of 57-58, 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16. Not many times do we have a situation like this coming off a La Nina (triple dip at that) and going straight into a strong or super Nino. Most of the time we have some neutral to weak status on either side of the ENSO spectrum before we go full bore into strong and super. Just some things to think about who knows this could really throw us for a curveball this year yet. Personally would like to wait until we get this WWB through to see how the ocean and atmosphere react.

Yea ill move my goal post of weak el nino to moderate at this point. Still not thinking super nino If this wwb works out decently we could see a peak near strong not sure we see consecutively yet to label a strong nino but regardless this will be notable to watch unfold in june and july with ssts. We may get lucky if this develops quickly and doesnt stay strong through late fall and winter. Otherwise expecting below average winter again with the random chance of getting a single large storm similar to 15-16 that would put folks near average. Crossing my fingers a more moderate approach sets up.

Now this is certainly something you want to see happen to sustain the el Nino and maybe finally give it a solid kick.

I could get behind a moderate El Nino. Included a strong one and two that pushed super nino briefly. These are years with cold/neutral or La Nina the winter before. Ill wait and see how this develops but anything above moderate may present a problem for winter lovers in the east again depending where forcing can actually set up. The issue unfortunately is that a lot of these years predate 2000 so we are certainly in a different climate setting than those times so it will be interesting to see how this gets going.

No pro still have much to learn overall, unfortunately tropics were not my forte in college so still always learning on that aspect. Always welcome to discussion and different thoughts. The big reason I highlighted these different aspects was because you want to see oceanic processes cooperate to help re-enforce the atmospheric component and help sustain a particular mode of ENSO. When we had Nina conditions we saw the oceanic pattern amplify the atmospheric conditions and while it was not a strong La Nina this past year it was more connected than the past two years, you can see this in the MEI data ( https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ ) . West Pac warm pool/ maritime and strong eastern Pac upwelling. We had one impressive MJO wave that finally seemed to allow the pattern to move around a bit and ease of up trades in the eastern PAC. I would like to see continued WWB events to warrant much past moderate status overall in 3.4 region. The thermocline is already lowered so it wouldn't take much to continue to slowly warm these waters but with having WWB event so far west I wonder just how far east these can get and allow the decline of the thermocline to allow the subsurface warming to takeover. As many have stated to really allow for a strong Nino we need these (WWB) to occur closer to the dateline to allow for the Pac as a whole to finally tip the bucket if you will. Honestly lets see how it evolves if we start to see strong OLR signals more toward the maritime and western Pac then certainly we will have started to see the atmospheric component change up and could help lead us to strong El Nino potential. Otherwise with an anomalous West Pac/ Maritime ocean and eastern Pac ocean these are fighting signals that may hinder the overall potential. Lets see how it evolves in the next two months as we may get a better handle on things and see if we do in fact get a WWB event that can extend with time closer to the dateline. Here are the MJO configurations for 1982/1997/ 2015. These were some of the most intense Nino episodes we have on record. Interesting to note the strong MJO wave in March for 1997/2015. It is hard to discern with overall warmer global SST's while trying to compare to the past but maybe we are achieving these temp differences in the same manner as past El Nino events just with a higher base state? Unfortunately can not find past 850u anom maps for those years luckily can see at least subsurface those years. I hate to go off the idea what happened in the past should happen again given these same factors because that can really steer us the wrong way. Trust me im not in the gotcha game if we go full bore strong/super Nino by all means great (not sure it will help many of us in the winter department but so be it) Im more so trying to take a cautious approach as models have failed on ENSO transitions numerous times with a warming world and the competing factors we still presently have do not help. Lets just see what happens in the next two months if we are on track for a 97/98 scenario we would start to take off about now 15/16 already had a warmed Pac so it transitioned quite a bit easier. If anything I would consider next year to have the better potential of a strong/ super nino when conditions may reflect it much better but that has just been a random thought in my head. This is where you can get past MJO data http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

For reference to a SST anom for 1997 going into the super Nino this was a monthly mean for April that year. You can see we are trying to get a similar profile look to that year. Cooling taking place in the central and NW Atlantic, warming up of the west coast waters but notice the still rather warm anomalies across the western Pac. Have a feeling this may disrupt the atmospheric process a bit to ensure a strong Nino is coming. Honestly though anything to shake up the pattern is fine with me at this point.

MJO activity heading into 4/5/6 on some forecasts instead of null and re-emerging into Nino phases of 8/1/2 like we have the past two months. Curious where this goes from here as we start to get into territory of how the El Nino will progress. Here is essentially end of April SST anoms and 7 day change. Overall still seems to be alot of mixed signals taking place.

It is a forecast of course but this is extremely far west for a WWB event. At least the eastern portion of the two areas may present some type of sustaining effect for waters in the eastern Pacific. Have to see how it plays out.

I wanna say we have a busy start to the season while Nina conditions atmospherically still exist with the tropics moistening up a bit due to the transition into a El Nino state will help moisten up tropics and subtropics in the Atlantic. Think we start early and end early if we do actually get an El Nino of more than weak forming. Really curious how this goes honestly, wouldn't be surprised to get near the average if not slightly more named storms ( Average 14 NS, 7 H, 3 M for reference). Interesting to see the Caribbean being a sinkhole would definitely fit the mode of transitioning into El Nino but also open the door for east coast hits and if ones can sneak in GOM hits.

I mean this is a step in the right direction at least. Would like to see more robust WWB but none the less a WWB will do. Forecast shows little continuation unfortunately so we will most likely get a cooling occurring in most locations for now. Expecting the warm up to surface end of May? from the current WWB. If we see another WWB try to set up in about 2 weeks or so it will give me more confidence in the more moderate maybe touching low end strong, if consistency can pop up that is. Starting to see some cooling Eastern IO and NW Australia so maybe we are starting to see some type of connection occur. It would seem we may be having issues trying to find exactly where forcing will set up. Still decent positive anoms in Maritime/ NE Australia region, very positive anoms along Peru, and an impressive amount of warmth in the eastern Atlantic. Would like to say we should have a better idea of evolution by mid May, hopefully.

Maybe it was just put in a different way but Equatorial Rossby Wave? In the summer you can get tropical activity that is in a broad low pressure region that can create WWB events similar to the MJO movement. MJO location plays a key role and with it staying in 8 that is about central PAC (slightly skewed west) it may open the door to allow for WWB events to set up into the summer. Going forward an area of thunderstorm activity should pop up west of the dateline that may help induce cooling around the maritime, sinking air into eastern IO, and overall help strengthen an El Nino like pattern. Big if to see that type of activity evolve though the next 2 months will be interesting to see if we start to see changes actually occur. It is great seeing ocean temps change up but without sustained activity atmospherically to keep that going we get a failed Nino attempt. I recommend Met Ed UCAR they have great tools and examples. Little complex at times but there is no need to rush through the lessons. https://www.meted.ucar.edu/education_training/ it is free to setup as far as I am aware. Just type in MJO and you will find two training courses that will teach you ins and outs of MJO, the activity involved, quick ENSO lesson, Rossby wave activity and more.