so_whats_happening

Here are two sites to help explain stuff with pictures Daily reconstruction: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/ Monthly/ Seasonal: https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl

Lastly lets see how this one turns out but thought the evolution was cool. Again wish I had saved prior times but unfortunately during that time I was without a home computer (friend destroyed my mac) and just using the work comp and a flash drive. Grabbed everything I could onto a flash drive before that comp was wiped...

Here are 850 wind anoms (just noticed the current map, the bottom one, cuts off at 120E but the old one goes to 60E so don't let that fool you)

Got a chance to clean out old files on my comp the other weekend and just took a look at the super nino of 2015/16 data I had saved, what little I did save. Here is a VP anomaly chart the dates on the left range from Jul 5th to about end of September same setup as the one for this year scale wise. You can see the standing wave that was able to form and allow for -VP to move east and stay east. Unfortunately I do not have info saved for the time stamp before this in this format. I do have the later portion though as it went into winter, you can see how the standing wave breaks down mid to late October.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +1.2___ +1___+1____ +1.5___+1.3___+2____-1.2___ +2.5___ +1.3

I agree on the PDO while weakening from its near record levels im not sure we go positive by fall/winter, maybe more neutral if not cool neutral (if that is a thing). As for double Nino im not so sure yet while rather unprecedented, like having two super ninos in a 10 year time span (not saying this will be a super nino, but in that off chance it squeaks up that high), it is possible considering the lack of cooling in the WPAC subsurface. Until that starts to arise I feel that option can not be thrown out just yet. Has the rapid increase in WV in the stratosphere helped cool the stratosphere globally? I feel it would do the opposite and allow for warming to occur. Maybe this could help explain the significantly warmer troposphere temps globally along with the ongoing El Nino rise, just postulating as of now.

It is impressive that very minor wwb events and two decent weakenings in the last 6 months has allowed it to go this far, the one decent was with the large soi drop in may to early june definitely openned the gates at a time when subsurface anoms were building. The other being back in march with the large mjo wave. Im curious whether this one is similar to those or with a sort of cutting off in the subsurface this may play a role as we go further along. I would have liked to see the expansion of +6c or higher but with no real kelvin wave as of yet i dont see it pushing more until that time comes if not potentially weaken a bit. Nino 3 will probably be the tell tale of just how high region 3.4 goes we should know in the next month just how much more warming can happen.

Gfs is sniffing out something in a week, wwb wise. It seems like maybe this a response from the -SOI pattern we just had. We saw one similarly back at the end of may from those rather low SOI values. This one may finally cut in deep, maybe. JMA sees a MJO wave 1/2 response which i believe is really good for Atlantic development and may allow the weakening of trades a bit as it passes over the pacific very weak. How much warming response will be interesting subsurface seems to be taking a little hit of late and OHC is still rather low. Edit to add that euro also sees the 1/2 wave action before heading back into null at the beginning of the month. Bomm is still just in its own world.

The JMA has been doing really well, even with the mjo.

00z GFS brings the lemon across the islands and if circulation can hold together brings it into the eastern Gulf. Still about 5 days out from the Antilles but it may just get to TS status. There seems to be another one after that in the pipeline that may have a better atmosphere to work with if the initial lemon kind of fades around DR/ Haiti/ PR region.

Nothing seems too off from the development. It is like the little engine that could lol. I think the one surprising aspect was the March WWB event that doesn't happen very often and in such an isolated manner but each Nino/Nina will have an evolution that is unique to it. Typically we peak in Nino/Nina October or November, to peak before or after is probably more rare but does happen (early peak is probably the rarest occurrence). The longevity is another thing fun to watch, namely about the collapse of such events is always fun as some hold on while slowly cooling/warming and others in a matter of 2 months go neutral from the peak. Still like my idea from I think April/May that we peak near 1.7-1.8 trimonthly with maybe a blip of a month going up to 2.0C max (this is still a big maybe) with overall atmospheric conditions still probably in moderate Nino category. Of course we wait and see but with July probably ending around 1.1 average to get to above 2.0C would need some really pronounced Nino conditions to come about. Solid -SOI, maybe an actual WWB event that reverses more than just 1+2 and eastern 3, forcing to not be so held back, cooling of waters off Maritime continent just to name a few things. The PDO does look to finally be getting knocked down a peg so maybe by fall it will be close to neutral? We are definitely spreading the surface waters west now compared to the past month or so. Im curious what the subsurface water temps will look like in a month.

Thanks for the response.

Ninos would be disrupted. I guess people dont like MEI? If we use this as a clue we have had less impactful ninos from 83 onward (at least super nino peaks have been lower over time) even with SST temps increasing considering 2015-16 had some of the highest 3.4 numbers. We still were impacted by the classic super nino state overall so it will take time for it to really show. As for ninas im not sure it makes them stronger. The only thing i could think of would be that ninas may become more frequent over time with a WPAC warm pool constantly being around. It's a shame it only goes to 1979 but gotta use what we have i guess.

It should continue most of this week probably two decent spike or negative departures days with other days around -15 average. When it ends is still a bit out but euro cuts it off before the end of the month or at least takes it to neutral. Lets see what it can do.

1972 is definitely looking like an interesting year in comparison. If it wasn't for the cooler WPAC and inverse in the Atlantic AMO would be quite the fit for how this year is going. May I ask why you subtracted 93-94 (neutral year) maybe you meant 94-95? I have yet to find a Nino that didn't have a cool pool at the surface in the western edge of the equatorial pacific already forming. This year is cooler but not in the negative departure yet. Typically we see the subsurface cool in some of the stronger events around now but there are a few instances that it occurs August after that is extremely rare to happen.

They added recently back to 1947 for subsurface data on the archive site I use. Now we can take a look at the subsurface for the years prior to 1979! https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/ocean/t-eq_tcc.html

Thank you for clearing that up as it makes much more sense now. Didnt even notice the tiny print in the bottom left of 5 day running mean.

The Arctic seems off 2012 was the min so it should show the most anomalous not 2020. The bolded is very interesting had not thought of it in that manner and major fluctuations make sense in it being signs of a tipping point. It would be something if the Antarctic over the next 10-20 years sees similar degradation to what the Arctic had and the Arctic just does a slight recovery, not in the sense it goes back to 1970s and 80s levels, just a more inline with the levels of what could be allowed in a positive year with as much warming that has occurred (hope this makes sense). I would think maybe something like 2000s average may be the upper echelon (maybe 90s levels if we get lucky but dont think it is possible with how much warmer oceans are) before another potential tipping point is reached type of deal.

Taking sides seems rather childish. We should be discussing why certain things are happening not mocking fellow colleagues even with some crazy forecasts mention it and move on. You seem to be letting them take up head space for no real reason. Alot of this twitter stuff mentioned above seems to rely solely on the idea that we do have an MJO wave that will form. Until we actually creep out of null im no buying it. JMA has been nailing MJO forecasts so far.

SOI looks to relax going into mid month maybe featuring some slightly negative readings with Darwin still having somewhat low pressure around. After that we may have a quick negative spike (I guess depression on charts) before we rebound to near neutral numbers. The Atlantic is showing signs of waking up again after this little bit of activity in the EPAC, I really had thought we would see more activity in the EPAC considering we are in the right time of year for EPAC activity; the WPAC is dead still. The main -VP is still near Maritime region even going into SE Asia at times which does not bode well for an MJO wave in 7,8,1. LR does try to push it to the central PAC but this is still long range this wouldn't be until early August at this point.

So how often do we see the potential of a system lasting not only to Hawaii ( I feel like this is a 1 in 5 year type of thing for Hawaii) but also going even into the WPAC?

There are some rumblings of 20th-31st of July when things may get a little bit of a match to ignite some action. Of course long range but things are relaxing a bit across the Atlantic, Caribbean a bit of a different story as expected to still be a rather rough environment.

I know it is still frowned upon discussing in this thread but when do we start throwing up some flags here on the Antarctic?

This is something to keep in mind are conditions capable to have this large spike, almost doubling of current SST's come fall time? Upper ocean heat anoms (not OHC) taking a bit of a nosedive and looking at the rest of the month trades will rule over most of the basin maybe that little potential will come the last week of July, still nearly 2 weeks away though.

Yea GFS is fairly similar in the approach the Euro has but still takes about 2 weeks to get to 6 where something may pop up. By now I would assume we would want this more into 7/8/1 with the little pokes of MJO activity to help cause this positive feedback. Still have plenty of time of course and things will surely change in the next week but as of now this week or so looks rather mundane overall. Hope we do see some overall improvements and move this subsurface warmth out of just the EPAC.