so_whats_happening

Why are they comparing it to 2019? Because this was the last big +IOD pattern, wouldn't it be better to compare it to a stronger Nino pattern?

Yea the issue still remains even when you change the interval and range you still don't get a bar. Unfortunately they do not list what default settings they use in their info. I can guesstimate it but can't get it to quite look like theirs but it at least gives me a better idea knowing the interval and ranges when I change it up, so that helps.

So only issue I have with this is where are the anomaly ranges?

For DJF purposes this was the 1956 to their baseline climo as compared to 2023 compared to the default used. Tried to use a similar difference in comparison between the two.

Wonderful! Thank you very much. You can see how the pressure tendencies change with water temps.

Bolded: absolutely that should be a well known idea at this point no differentiation in opinion on that subject. Higher heights unfortunately all year round in conjunction warming oceans leaves with less severe cold outbreaks. What dictates trough orientation is other things involved and most certainly the pacific pattern influenced it this past year in comparison to a year of similar status. You can see the difference in temp profiles across the US between the two years although scale is different, on the colder end as already discussed, but here nor there you get the idea. Here are the pressure anomalies in comparison you can see weaker pacific high pressure potential and more prominent troughing pattern across the north pacific from Sea of Okhotsk to much of the Bering sea driving it right down the west coast. Where as in 55/56 you had a much stronger high pressure region having cold spill into West Pacific/ Japan and another coming from the north Canada/Alaska region to the Pac NW.

I think we can both agree the west Pacific played a significant role in how the winter went down in both scenarios given a fairly similar stance in large scale patterns such as ENSO/PDO. The only thing I have ever found with higher heights over the poles is less cold to work with.

Fair points all around

The polar domain having higher heights means less cold is able to stay up north and be produced versus 1955/56 so in that sense cold air would have spilled through much of the lower latitudes you can see the difference in the amount of cold air. Think this really could have played a major role as there was no issue with precip across the area and many times down this way we were right on the edge of getting snow just ended up too warm. So it is very possible we could have had similar results had the overall atmosphere and polar domain not been warmer. Again wish I had an SST reanalysis for 55/56. +WPO versus -WPO winter also played a significant role long sustained jet versus a wavier jet. There also seems to be some counter balance situation between northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere that is interesting to note, probably on a decadal scale of sorts.

55/56 gave us in the mid atlantic around 28" of snow that winter 22-23 gave us 0.9" both solidly negative PDO signals and both in a moderate La Nina pattern. I unfortunately don't have SST reanalysis for 55/56. By far the biggest difference was the Pacific 55/56 could have a similar ish look had we not had a +WPO pattern this past year.

Going solely off the idea of 1955/56 being a moderate/strong La Nina and having a -PDO of near -3 to last year having a moderate La Nina and a -PDO of about -2.5

So going off this we had a deeply negative PDO in the 50's 1950/51: around -2 to -3 over the summer (Neutral ENSO) ~7" of snow 1951/52: was a bit more relaxed but still averaged around -1 and dipped to -2 in winter. (El Nino) ~27" of snow 1955/56: deeply negative again (-2 to -3) at the levels experienced in 1950/51 (moderate to strong La Nina) ~28" of snow 1956/57: again around -1 to -2 (Neutral ENSO) ~18" of snow 1958/59: neutral to +PDO (strong El Nino) ~8" of snow 1960's were full of snow except for 1967/68 that had ~18" which was a neutral year (cool PDO didn't average much below -1, with a spike in july august to around -1.5 area) Early 60's had a -PDO regime that relaxed through much of the mid to late 60's and we had some high snowfall years. Early 70s came back with a -PDO period as well then relaxed. So strong Nino and +PDO don't go well around here, neutral ENSO and -PDO do not go well around here, La Nina and -PDO are ehh around here. So with the enhancement of the warmer Atlantic it probably nudged us over to lower snow totals during a -PDO/ La Nina pattern there was already a ridge pattern in the east due to the -PNA but it is now enhanced due to warmer waters off the coast creating a stronger ridge profile not necessarily a deeper -PDO profile. PDO data: https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO I only state this as being a Mid Atlantic resident.

True, I mean the whole W Atlantic has just been insanely warm for years now. The Labrador current is non existent right now too. Wonder what it will take to flip the +AMO pattern?

This is probably one of the larger differences we have seen in a warm phase. Definitely gives an idea of just how impactful this El Nino may end up.

Ocean temps probably helping in conjunction with the more frequent 4-6 MJO, top it off with a -PDO period and boy is it going to look rough. Hope we can get tropics to still actively take out the warmth along the east coast through the end of October maybe it gives us a fighting chance at something different.

0.4 for July/ August

Yea coming from an area that is highly variable in general this is the snow graph from Millersville just SW of me from 1926 to what looks like 2021 (unfortunately 2022 and 2023 not on their but 15.0" and 0.9" respectively). Average is about 27.4" according to the month to month break down, feel this has gone up a bit from about 24-25" but would have to double check. We are not immune to really bad winters around here but the frequency of not having snow or having alot of snow has definitely changed a bit seems to be a one or the other situation around here.

It has been extremely hard to find data of recent for many things not just sea ice. I do not like it. The temps are holding rather steadily above average across the Arctic so it will definitely be a slow start this year. The Russian land temps are finally cooling down enough that it should help with starting the refreeze season soon but we may have seen our lowest for the year and just a very slow start as we head to October.

CPC site finally updated still holding on to quite a bit of subsurface warmth out in the way western Pacific, if that has not gone away it still does mean that another KW is on the table. When is clearly the question at hand but not anytime soon I suppose. Still nothing showing up with even a minor WWB to the of the month. Luckily the trades are not nearly as strong as last year but strong enough to put a lid on things for now. Edit: I do not know why CPC gif always stop but it is what it is at this point. Here is the site if folks don't have it. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

Lol well be careful with that because once it starts it may not shut off down here.

Lol im good when we have had rains it has been quite prolific and caused flash flooding. Just want a nice synoptic style rainfall to ease some of the worries around here.

There is an expansion of cool anomalies and a weakening of the thermocline. Looks to be moving back to August location for anomalies? One thing that does look locked in is the anomalies in the west 3.4/4 region those are not moving however the eastern areas... to be continued.

It is not a screaming STJ lol it is there but not a crazy STJ let the seasonal pattern sink in. Things are not going to flip on a dime. I however do not like the troughing trying to sneak back into the west coast on models. Let's see how it shakes out.

While it is nice to finally be catching up on some rainfall we still have a ways to go unfortunately. It has been quite the dry water year. I hate to say it but something tropical will have to push us close to average. The period from April- June was insanely dry around here July was at or above average across most of the area and each month since has been close to but just below average.

Updated TAO subsurface, again wish I had decided to save dates before this but was way too busy with work.