so_whats_happening

I like the thought makes sense, do you have thoughts on progression after this was this a one bump deal or could we get another bump next year?

So multi year Ninos were 1957-58 & 58-59, 68-69 & 69-70 (didn't want to include this one because it was low end moderate at it's peak), 76-77 & 77-78 (weak Nino overall but also had a cool surface in the WPAC), 86-87 & 87-88, and lastly 2014-16. Of course unfortunately there is not one matching this overall evolution but again a big missing ingredient is the much cooler waters in the WPAC. I did have that in mind for quite some time of a multi year Nino thought it would be like these past situations where the first year was mehh and the second year was much more pronounced again only year that was opposite of that progression and was stronger initially and weaker second round was 57-58. Certainly has been an interesting go about thus far and should be interesting to watch for October- December. We should have a solid feel of how this will progress further I feel by the end of the month. Let see how the ocean reacts to this WWB west of the date line and the weakening of trades across the other regions. https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/ocean/t-eq_tcc.html

Unfortunately there are not many sub surface matches as a strong or moderate El Nino to what is occurring right now of course that is to be expected. The interesting year was again 2009-10 looking almost similar in configuration with current time frame having a warmer EPAC. That year did experience a solid KW during the month of October that helped enhance the Nino from the weak/ low end moderate status to low strong. If this evolution is similar in idea we see a higher SST threshold than 2009. If we do indeed see the continued decline of 1+2 coming up here I do not think we will go negative but sub 2 and maybe 1.5 doesn't seem too far-fetched of an idea. I do believe 3.4 does push 2C for a month whether if is on a full month or between two months who knows at this point and im not sure it would matter all too much the only hope is that we do not peak early and can have solid forcing still show up through the later portion of the winter. 57-58 (strong), 63-64 (mod), 86-87 and 87-88 (hovered around mod/strong but was quite a crazy evolution), 02-03 (mod), 09-10 (strong). Most of these years were very modoki-like in SST configuration at this point in time 57-58 was the only year that had a warmer EPAC subsurface but had a much cooler WPAC. The evolution not quite the same but certainly was a notable progression from this image on. This was also a late peak year and seemingly is following pretty close ONI wise. By far the biggest aspect we are missing is the cooler waters near the WPAC in either surface or subsurface it definitely is trying to say the least.

Latest subsurface change since the end of September there has been quite the push on the thermocline in the last week. I do not think it breaks but should be fun to watch as the subsurface warmth slowly is losing ground. Areas further west though definitely a different story, that warm pool is not going away and even expanded. Some +2C breaking the surface around 170-180W which is helping aid in the warming of 3.4 and definitely 4. There has been this rather consistent +VP placement around 120-150W not sure what to think about that yet.

This should help with getting a more consistent look of an Aleutian low while waters off Japan are still cooling they are cooling much less than it has been, long ways to go it seems for destroying the -PDO but we should see a nice tick down for the monthly number.

Yea the ever persistent subsurface warmth under 4 is surprising for a Nino year typically this area and just west would have cooled down by now. 1+2 does continue to cool more slowly as of now but there does seem to be less overall heat to work with then just a few months ago. As for the Kelvin wave it did look like at one point there was going to be one (minor event around 10/7-10/9 time frame) but that doesn't quite seem to be happening given that we have had a couple days to watch and see if something were to evolve. Will wait a few more days to see if there is any downwelling that shows up more so than what the animation shows, which was again a minor move of 28C waters in depth and the dispersion of the cool anomalies around 150W.

I took out the 11th as it was rather erroneous and used the latter portion of the data on the 13th as it matched much better for progression of what it looked like under the surface. Gonna be an interesting 2 weeks here.

Unfortunately CDAS tends to be a little too cool in Nino regions where as CRW tends to be rather warm. OISST is probably the closest you will find to getting near what is reported by NOAA, which they use ERSST data.

It looks as though we have had a bit of a glitch in TAO data over the last 3 days. Keep getting fixes in the subsurface from when the data originally hits. Take for example yesterday two completely different looks from about 120W to 180. With the look resembling more along the lines of what happened on Oct 9th I may exclude the 11th from future animations unless we see a stark change occur. I had a feeling there were minor adjustments taking place from when data initially was released but this is quite the change up in the same day. BTW the top one is the current look.

Yea I don't think at this point anyone expects it to peak in Sept, now it will be very interesting to see what happens in the next month as the subsurface warm pools are being hit quite a bit. This type of atmospheric response should produce something of note as we close out the month into November. Again not quite sure what a west propagating WWB event will produce as typically you would want an east propgating event like we saw back in August. Will this just deepen the warm pool in the WPAC again or will this push over some more anomalous waters allowing the 3/3.4 region to warm more? Honestly not to sure of what the outcome will be so it should be fun to watch the evolution.

Latest subsurface look little interesting here

Not a bad forecast and generally agree. He has showed us tidbits throughout the summer so it shouldn't come as a big surprise to folks what the final outlook was. I wanna see how the rest of this month shakes out, I don't do seasonal forecasts, but like the idea of the overall temp trends that will happen this month to being how winter goes. Warm start of the month equal to a rather warm December, to a mild and more tame temp profile mid month eqaul to January and potentially cold latter third of the month eqaul to a cold February. Precip probably a bit too variable to know for certain for me at least.

I will hold my thoughts to what we have on the prediction thread. I still think we see a nice surge in monthly values to come here as there is no immediate sign of cooling taking place as we typically see in a Nino. This has been a fun one to watch regardless of outcome.

recurving typhoon doing its job! If I remember correctly it is about 10 days after the recurve we see the effects in the lower 48.

Damn I should have stuck to my calls early on of 1.4 lol we shall see what happens as we close the month though still think it has a little ummphhh with it.

No reason to feel forlorn about it. You continue to stick to your guns and I commend that. Hope we all learned a little something through all of this regardless of the end result and can use it toward future discussions.

So does anyone have a link to past CPC SST anom maps like this? I have only been able to find an ehh look for 1997, would like to find a similar setup for past years with same chart style if possible. I found this 1997 but am unsure if it is legit (seems reasonably accurate though). I do have a 2015 one though that I got from my old comp. What I find the most interesting portion of this is both 1997 and 2015 had that warm tongue travelling from about the dateline moving eastward in time early on in the development. You can kind of see it may have been trying this event but doesn't look to have happened in the same manner. The 1997is from January to December.

Yea I cant agree with the bolded statement. 2015, 1997, 1982, and even 1972 all featured extremely active WPAC hurricane seasons where these storms were initiated in comparison to 2023 was different but they are just as important in Nino formation as having a consistent -SOI pattern or cooling within the WPAC surface and subsurface. The things different this year in comparison to those years is the lack of WWB further East near the dateline, a consistent -SOI pattern early on in the summer, and that waters are far warmer near the maritime continent compared to those years, even the recent 2015 had cooler waters set up much earlier to help the feedback process. We still have had WWB events in the far far WPAC this year but in comparison to those years have been much farther west and less consistent in areas from 150E-150W. We have not had consistent typhoon development this year in that region as 2015, 1997, 1982, and 1972 had and that is rather telling. This I think helped really enhance the WWB formation during those years in the timeframe needed June-Sept is typically the time frame we warm the most in El Nino events. It is reasonable to assume that if we do indeed get another WWB event from consistent tropical activity out that way that there will be some increase in temp but the most likely outcome would be sustainability of the event. This is the typhoon summary for these years. 1972: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Pacific_typhoon_season 1982: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Pacific_typhoon_season 1997: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Pacific_typhoon_season 2015: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Pacific_typhoon_season 2023: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Pacific_typhoon_season Thanks for the link. This is a June- Sept breakdown of the super Nino years of zonal wind anomalies compared to this year.

There certainly is, it probably was in response to the two Typhoons one earlier in the month and the current one forming out of the ERW that took place. That certainly is one way to get it done. Same thing happened in August so if continual activity happens in this region it is very possible we get a rather noticeable response in ENSO state. Ill leave SOI stuff for another time I gotta grab some lunch.

Latest TAO subsurface I shortened it as getting nearly 20 or more images in order was rough.

I see where the discrepancies in numbers come from since we use absolute numbers at work (I work at the airport) for our data catalog versus decimal oriented as the NWS uses. Say the daily average is 62.5 we use 63 versus at the NWS so rounding errors enough will make it that much more skewed. At the end of the month it still is relatively similar to what shows up at the NWS month to date summary. All I will say is it is possible but there needs to be a very consistent atmospheric pattern to induce that, unfortunately long range has been rather wonky past 5 days so I'd rather not hold my breath on something like that verifying but still possible.

Speaking solely from a station perspective (KBWI) we are a third through the month and those first 4-5 days at the beginning did a number on our average even with the much cooler pattern we have now we are still around +9 for the month and slowly falling. We would need to average around 2-3 below average each day for the rest of the month to get us below average area fairly tall order but possible. The SE should have a really good chance of producing a below average Oct further north is gonna be tough, but possible.

I could see it more so sustaining the warmth currently around but the only years I have seen with a substantial subsurface warming this late were 1991-92, 1994-95 ( this one started in July/August timeframe),and 2009-10 during an El Nino already in progress. Sorry didn't realize I cut off the bottom labels for 94-95 but they are the same as the other two.

There seems to be a more consistent signature showing up of EPAC and eastern Central Pac winds quieting. This would go into late October and beginning of November where in November we could potentially see warming of regions take a sharper turn. Still well off in the distance and will need to be watched but the overall weakening of trades in 1+2 and eastern 3 should warrant some warming over the next week or so before we get better ideas toward the end of the month. There have been many EPAC wind weakening events this season and very few consistent WPAC induced weakening events.