so_whats_happening

Sorry but im not seeing the MJO wave showing up yet. I also really wouldn't take a forecast nearly 2+ weeks as gospel we have seen how this worked out with the last potential MJO wave/ -VP forecast from end of May for middle to later half of June. This had looked like an appreciable event that would kick things in motion once again and while we did see a minor spike in temps (~0.1) increase in 3.4 it was not enough to really warrant the solid wave that was forecasted by models at the end of May beginning of June. Now if we start to actually erode a fairly Nina like atmosphere I could agree but Hovmollers over the next week and SOI present a different picture muted warming potential and even cooling looks to take place over 3.4 maybe even 3, as we see 4 has taken a dive. There is a chance that by the end of the month for a little peak, and I mean little as of right now, into phase 6 before going null again could be from a tropical system trying to get going in the WPAC but overall things are dead. I assume this is the MJO wave in talks?

The 30 day SOI is just about near 0 when back in end of may beginning of june we had a monthly SOI near -20. There has been quite the string of positive days from the deeply negative two weeks we saw. Doesnt look to be a big change to that coming up here either. July not looking like a stellar month.

Appreciate it. For some reason HM was not clicking that was anthony.

HM is henry marguisity? Probably butchered the last name. Anyway hope he moved away from his hype train years ago with the constant big daddy talk. I enjoyed his analysis from time to time though. Never saw him as more than a synoptic/mesoscale guy for east and mid atlantic.

Same areas as mentioned still will be under the potential of warming coming up but models seemed to have backed off much appreciable warming potential which makes sense based off the lack of an MJO impulse. Should lead to a slow incline as we move into July as of now. Speaking of MJO should still be wondering around null for a bit may try to poke out in 2-4 for a brief moment.

We should see a nice spike coming up here in the beginning of July. With lack of MJO im curious what the full effects will be. Thing is the weakening in trades is a bit further east than the last time so maybe a more pronounced warming in 1+2, 3, and maybe getting a bump in 3.4 at least in the most eastern portion.

Again to my point above it is not a perfect evolution and honestly seeing things happen 1:1 would be incredible to witness at some point (im sure at one time things of similar evolution have happened). Here is the 2009 evolution again anomalies are off but it has a similar look thus far with warming and the extension of the warm tongue staying out west for quite some time until fall and winter. Maybe we see a similar idea and maybe this is why some models are showing a crazy peak? Time will tell of course.

Feel the lack of subsurface cooling in the WPAC is really playing a role in keeping a lid on things combined with a still prominent -PDO pattern (this does look to be weakening over time now). Here is CPC May to mid June subsurface again the EPAC is now more anomalous than the now near CPAC warm anomalies in the subsurface. Again not say we cant see a rather decent reversal in the WPAC but to what extent and when does this occur? Most El Nino events that I have access to (until 1979 for subsurface) show we already would have had a negative anomaly in the WPAC by now. 2009 subsurface had this in some similar evolution, this year albeit is definitely stronger anomaly wise but the evolution is rather interesting to follow.

Evolution of course will never be the same but we can get some clues from past instances to maybe help out with future forecasts. This is a gif of 1997 subsurface evolution and 2023 so far, definitely have shown a longer gif before of the 97, 15, and 23 (so far) evolutions before. You can see yes there are similarities the warmth extending from WPAC to EPAC but the biggest difference and curious how this plays out, the warm pool not being nearly as strong as 97 comparing WPAC to EPAC gives me pause at what this outcome could actually be. In 1997 we saw the subsurface have warmer anomalies than the eastern portion before the whole thing went full tilt and caused what we know. This go around the EPAC warm pool is warmer than the subsurface waters now coming from the WPAC. I wonder if this will play a role in less umphh behind it as it does eventually push east? We also still are not developing the classic cool/cold anomalies in the subsurface we have seen with numerous El Ninos of past. I wonder is it possible we have pushed the heating potential limit and now we start to see the move westward of surface temps as we weaken trades in 3.4 which will continue to warm, sort of like a slow bleed as we head toward Fall. We have about 2 weeks until we get to see the results of the June 2023 subsurface. Going forward the trade wind halt and even slight reversal should provide another bounce up come mid July latest. What happens after that may be another fun one to watch barring this forecast for reversal is correct.

Thats what i have been thinking for awhile now. We get things going quick and slump around peak season depending on how everything with the El Nino evolves. I honestly hope El Nino conditions take over or it has the potential of being heck of a season.

I dont normally post stuff from twitter but when reading about the developing tropical storm(s) in the Atlantic I happened upon an interesting take to the El Nino discussion. Considering we may have a rather stout +SOI pattern setting up lets see where we end up. Lack of tropical activity still in the WPAC and EPAC, Atlantic may begin firing off storm after storm coming up here all while the MJO is set to be dead for the next week or two. MJO forecasts show maybe a re-emergence around 1/2 but not until the first week of July, if forecasts hold.

You can see why the warming had taken place the lack of trade winds really allowed the area to just open up so we got that spike. While the trades have maintained if not even dropped temps locally during this time. We can expect temps to hold or slightly cool until things lighten up or if a warming occurs in 1+2, 3. More of that needs to be prevalent for the Nino to really start to show onto those higher numbers. Average should probably end up around .75 maybe .8 on the month of june unless we see a more drastic change to end the month.

That looks like fun!

Honestly will have to wait and see. We might not get a reaction until July which a few days is semantics of course. We also need to see just how influential the WWB will actually be. If we take this last one for example which was still a rather impressive event we rose a solid .5 degree not shabby at all but since have cooled that area by half the warming that occurred. Im still hesitant on going anything above 2C as that would require more robust WWB events and an actual dislodging of the subsurface warm pool. We have about 4 months until we hit peak typically seen with El Nino events. At the rate we have been going it has been about .3C increase each month since February. If this rate continues we look to be about .9-1.2 for July average, 1.2-1.5 August, 1.5-1.8 for September average and maybe if we arent on the cooler side of things pushing near 2C in October. Thoughts are definitely pinned around 1.7-1.8C in 3.4 currently so while we push into strong territory the atmospheric response may be more on the moderate Nino side of things. We seem to be on the 30 day kick for WWB events with larger pushes happening every 80-90 days (late february/early march and late may). Lets see how it goes.

Got some decent trade winds setting up over the next week. After that may be a wash to know how it finishes, after the 20th. As of now there does seem to be a potential WWB event setting up starting about the 20th lets see how the models progress this coming up. Also we finally see a potential in the EPAC for a tropical system but not much in the way of development based off models. This is a bit of a late start for that basin lets see how things go in the next two weeks and as we move into July the strong El Nino years tend to really produce.

Still surprisingly nothing crazy to report on in the Arctic but the Antarctic is just not doing good at all...

Yea I feel it may just complicate things even worse than they have been. We see how the impact of reducing aerosols in the mid latitudes is going we are seeing some of the of the warmest readings in oceans and atmosphere in our recorded history. If we dropped the aerosols all together boy are we in for some heating. If we cut back on GHGs it wont be an immediate response of course but it will be better in the long run of less warming potential being placed on the system than if we continue on this path. Methane and water vapor ruling the day on the short term aspect of warming.

To compare to the previous impressive WWB event back in Feb-Mar that had the insane MJO wave with it.

Sorry been on vacation the last week. This is by far the most influence we have seen from the WWB. The trades almost reversed completely across 140-90W. Lets see if we have more in the pipeline.

I had seen these in looking around but Gensini site looked to have old data besides the CFS forecast which seemed to update. The other didn't quite match up with the tweets snowman had posted on page 27 or 28 I believe it was.

Does anyone have a site to get GWO charts or data?

DCA 101 +1.1 NYC 101 +.8 BOS 98 +.8 ORD 101 +1.8 ATL 102 +0.5 IAH 100 -0.6 DEN 101 -0.2 PHX 112 -0.6 SEA 97 +1.5 Sorry for not joining the last few months been very busy and just keep missing deadline times.

Fair point and interestingly enough those years also had a -PDO pattern that was around during an emerging El Nino. 1957 completely collapsed the PDO by May and going positive by summer. '63 had a brief period of +PDO play out toward fall and end of the year. '65 had a fairly similar approach to how '63 evolved in the PDO department late fall early winter. '72 went neutral by fall after having some low values leading up to the El Nino emerging similar to the low values this year. So the one major factor is SST configuration with lower SST's during that time globally the difference was enough to allow forcing to emerge east compared to now. Here is april forcing of those years compared to this year clearly west of those years meaning different setup. What this means going forward I guess we will find out. Just wanted to also add checking out the oddity that 1963 was showed competing lift regions globally one over Africa and another setup fairly similarly to the first VP composite. Added picture for 1963 globally for April. This probably helped with the slow start to the emerging Nino and lack of WWB consistency. Still managed moderate though when all was said and done.

I personally wish these individuals would post the reasoning graphically they tend to explain evolutions a bit better than the 200 or so word limit in several chains of messages. While he isn't wrong on this idea that the Ninos of 1957, 1963, 1965, and 1972 (all moderate to strong) developed like we see now (warm waters emerging in 1+2 early on) we also had different wind conditions leading up to the El Nino emergence. They had persistent easterlies that were around for the early part of the development across 1+2, 3, and eastern portion of 3.4 fairly similar to what we are seeing except that random batch we had in March around 1+2. This kept things at bay for a while but eventually that pattern broke and emerged as an El Nino pattern. Just take a look at placement of where Westerlies (anoms) took place during those years still close to if not right on the dateline. Once the May content comes out we can also see how that compares to pre 1982 El Ninos. Unfortunately I can not find much past 1979 for subsurface which is unfortunate, that would be nice to see if we did in fact have a subsurface look similar to this year where almost the entire equatorial pacific basin is above normal. By far the most interesting ones of the 4 years were 1963 and 1972 and how they emerged (63 moderate, 72 strong borderline super). Included the 4 years listed above for April U-Anom winds as well as 2023. Also included the May to August for 63 and 72. Maybe something to keep in mind. The other 2 seasons had consistent/persistent westerlies around the dateline.

I feel like there is an important thing that needs to get mentioned. So say we do happen to have a strong/super Nino coming up do we actually couple the atmosphere/ocean and will it respond properly to this change or do we have exceedingly warm ocean temps and an atmospheric response that resembles that of a weak or even moderate El Nino? I also feel like the twitter stuff posted is very ambiguous I mean yes it is possible to go from a 3 year La Nina event to a moderate to super Nino just like it is to go from a super to a 3 year la Nina. I mean what happens if we sit here and do go full bore super Nino status does that mean we go right back into a triple dip La Nina afterward, it would truly be unprecedented but not improbable. The issue of it is we don't have a solid long foundation that can account for such instances occurring so to say it whole heartedly can attain super levels or whether it can revert right back to Nina (not likely at all just as an example) is the biggest issue in this debate and unfortunately records don't give us much clue, especially with how things have developed thus far. This event, while having aspects of a what could be a strong Nino it has many factors still hedging against it for now. Another question would be do we see with warmer ocean temps overall longer Nino events ones that last longer than about a year timeframe, do we see multi year El Nino and La Nina becoming more of a thing? The frequency of ENSO state may sway slightly toward Nina being more often but that has yet to be realized overall we don't see the frequency of Nino events picking up but the top temperature anomaly within those events is certainly much higher but is the overall affect becoming greater? Just a lot of questions out there and this season is stumping the community. The lack of tropical activity is another concerning aspect regardless of what basin we talk about. The only way I see the hint of us getting to that strong to super category in trimonthlies is if we full on collapse the PDO pattern (essentially go neutral/positive by end of summer), it is possible but can't really see how that would happen in the next 2-3 months. This will be the month to see if these changes take hold or whether we just have slow growth, let us see if we get a solid spike this month. Attached is a 90 day SST anom animation from end of February.