so_whats_happening

Quite the change in the subsurface going on. First time we have introduced a -3, it also does not seem like the central to WPAC will cool all too much in the subsurface in the next month so we may see some rather drastic changes in the EPAC coming up over the month. With trades looking at the upper echelon of values I think any further warming is not expected. The westerlies that do develop around 100-120E I think will help in pushing that cold pool eastward later in the month and by February we start tumble rather quickly in 3 and eastern 3.4 with 1+2 maybe going negative for the first time in almost a year. Of course we will have to wait and see how it progresses but just some thoughts of the progression.

I hate to break up this patting of the back but @griteaternailed the temps monthly and ONI. Well deserved applause.

Here is a nice visual for those who want vertical structure looks. The GFS run as of 1/09 has two distinct lobes in lower strat to about 30mb (20mb may be a stretch) so it does seem as though there are some connections that may happen for a bit to tropospheric weather patterns even with a non full split scenario. https://www.stratobserve.com/fcst_ell_vert

At this point for a major SSW I would expect it closer to February now, if at all. (Typical of what we have seen of recent SSW events) I originally thought mid month (January) way back in late November early December when we had our first warming take place. This does not look to be the case for a full split right now as the Atlantic is still not working for us. I was hopeful to see the larger storms and more cyclonic wave breaks happen in the last month but we just do no have it consistently happening. Who knows maybe we will have a little curveball thrown our way to help lock the pattern in. For it to be an actual split you need two distinct lobes. Pinching off a small section or stretching it out do not count as an official major SSW event. I should say not all major SSWs have a split occurring, there are times where the SPV it just obliterated by an exceptionally large wave 1 response this does not seem to be the case. As 40/70 Benchmark has stated Im not sure it will really matter too much going forward as the 500mb pattern that is setting up looks rather nice as we get to the second half of January and maybe continuing into February? The split would only help sustain the pattern longer. Will definitely be watching how it unfolds going forward.

Some pretty substantial trades are making there way to much of the Pacific last little bark right now in the far eastern Pacific.

It seems to be taming down just very slowly. I assume you are referencing the waters off Japan. If you are talking about near the Maritime Continent yea good luck with that one. Wouldn't it be something if ORD and DTW pull some crazy totals coming up here. At least it seems to be setting up the colder pattern as we enter the second half of January.

Quick update there was a brief outage it looks like around christmas time but since seems ok now.

Happen to have a good site to get WPO/EPO data?

Sorry wanted to do this after I got back from the garage but had to sleep coming off work. @GaWx Anyway I don't have a particular average for lag to the pattern most I use is about a week but it probably really depends on amplitude and speed of the wave more than I truly know unfortunately. It is not to discredit those composites as they are useful to help get some pattern recognition, but personally they aren't always correct in placement or intensity. If we take this last round of MJO movement from Phase 6 through to Phase 1 before the new year. Dec 8-12th weak phase 6, Dec 15-18th weak phase 7, Dec 18th-22nd weak phase 8, Dec 23rd-29th over 1 wave in phase 1. Made a temp plot (surface based) to show the changes. We don't seem to quite be hitting those marks as shown above, I know it is not perfect and maybe there is a chance the 500mb pattern responded a bit quicker to the type of progression. I tried to slow them down as much as I could so that you could see the date progression I should have labeled it but 3am stuff. I think this is an important part that needs to be recognized with the use of the composites. It would be better to maybe compare 500mb or 200mb pattern and get a better idea of what could be versus temps specifically especially in the weaker version of the phase. I also would like to explore further into the actual lagged composites section right above it a little more and get a better explanation.

Sorry ill get back to these later on doing this on a cellphone is not going to work out so well lol

If we can't agree yet that there is a lag between MJO phase and the effects toward mid latitude then I don't know what.

Some of the more intense trades we have seen so far are coming over the next 2 weeks. Looking like a race to see how long it can sustain itself. If region 3 begins to cool rapidly coming up the chances seem to fall quite a bit. Surprised december came in a little warmer than thought.

Not even sure a modoki la nina pattern can be a thing but the warm pool in the subsurface near the dateline is not fading like we typically see, especially in what are considered east based events. Wonder if we hold a nice warm pool in region 4 and western 3.4 into next winter? It does look like region 3 is about to cliff dive coming up through january.

Head over to weather sphere. Wxsphere.com alot of old handles from accu days over there if you are interested!

Yes thank you Roger it is appreciated. I hope to be more attentive with forecasts and not to be too conservative with anomalies this year. Hope you all have a great 2024!

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +1.4 +1.6 +1.7 -1.3 -.8 -1 -1.2 -1.8 -1.2

Was going to wait until tomorrow but I have a busy schedule the next few days, it shouldn't change too much at the end but we seem to be having a buoy issue again. That warmth near the dateline is just not going away.

Hard to know can't rely on one over another just going to have to wait and see. CRW is too erratic for my liking.

The weekly would be from the 20th-27th should average around 2 again. Dec 21: 2.04 Dec 22: 1.97 Dec 23: 1.91 Dec 24: 1.95 Dec 25: 1.98 Dec 26: 1.99 Dec 27: 2.05 The first weekly into January should feature that 2.1.

An insanely weak wave 2 response. We need to see this by hr 240 not 384 like we have seen posted several times. You can see there was a chance but CWB activity on our side of the planet has been rather dismal. We have the SPV in a weakened state but still holding it's own.

Translate it and up at the top you will see the reliability of each by color coding.

Yea i dont see how this causes anymore warming to occur. Keeping it around the same temp sure but any strengthening doesnt seem likely at this point. This month looks to end fairly close to how november was. Especially if that thermocline breaks in 1+2. We may see a rather quick cooling in the eastern portions and slow decline in western 3.4 and 4.

We seem to be having some buoy issues again on TAO so it gives a funky look to everything for the last 3 days. Minor DWKW with this last bout of weak wind burst. The extended wind forecast shows a very Nina like look over the Pacific.

Such a large difference in 1+2 readings from the several sources: CDAS or Tropical Tidbits: ~+.6 CRW: ~+1 OISST: ~+1.6 The cooling of 1+2 has not reached region 3 yet but should continue as we move into January. Hovering around 2C for both 3.4 and 3 in most data sets, of course except CDAS data. Nino 4 sitting at about 1.5C. With not much in the pipeline showing up we probably sustain most of these for about another 3 weeks or so and of course depending on equatorial winds we may start the descent into a weakening Nino by mid January on through the rest of winter. Luckily it seems as though we won't fall off a cliff. If the OISST weekly comes in at 2C again we should end the month about 2C which should crest us about 1.9C tri monthly for NDJ, again barring no more cooling occurs. Really hope we can get a neutral year next year instead of hoping right back into Nina status, which would be rather impressive and the only time this has occurred (not quite in the same manner as this) was in the early 70's. Hope yall have a good holiday season, may post TAO update after Christmas then.

Not really and those are VP maps which show the lifting going quickly to 1.