so_whats_happening

Im not so sure because we have had this strong -PDO/ marine heatwave for some years now all it did to temps was hold serve so temps were not cooling as much as they should have the heatwaves have not effectively added more heat to the system. I would agree though that the heatwaves probably help maintain temps though and don't allow nearly as much cooling as what should have occurred. This massive spike though was definitely the makings of something else. Just look back at 1998, we saw an almost .6C spike similar to this one but we weren't dealing with the marine heatwaves like we are now.

Ninos help release a ton of heat into the atmosphere, there is a reason for the spikes in every single Nino year. This most recent spike wreaks of the aftermath from Hunga Tonga water vapor affecting the lower atmosphere in combo with a Nino event. The problem is that if we do not actually decrease our overall GHG usage (we wouldn't magically reverse the effects either in a few years and then say yay it is fixed, going to take a very long time) we don't see nearly enough of a correction downward as those gases just hold the heat and we continue at these new levels from here on. Essentially if things hold we may have taken another step up. That would be a very large step if that has happened and not a good sign for the future of winters.

Looks like we may have a rather significant pullback of VP anomalies from the Maritime Continent coming up here.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +1.7 +1.6 +1.9 +1.1 +1.6 +1.1 +1.8 +2 +3.2 Before I forget, may tweak slightly before the 1st. I'll add an edit time if I do. Edit: 02z

It looks like the models have finally decided we swing slightly (low amplitude on plots) through 7/8 before hitting 1. This is allowing the EPAC to finally get some tropical action. Bud was kind of a surprise little quick pop up and shows when the MJO just starts to enter the right areas it is going to produce. Carlotta looks reasonable still not sure yet about Daniel but it really depends on how quickly the MJO moves. Still looking like after this weekend the door opens up wide for the Atlantic. We may even see that sneaky wave become something as it gets to the islands by the weekend being close to the edge of uplift from the moving MJO wave. So after we have just experienced Phase 5 for the past almost 2 weeks it will take some time for the mid latitudes to feel the effects of 7/8/1 as we move into August. Here is 5 in La Nada state to end July and as we head into August. We should start to see weakness/ troughing in the East come mid next week. After this and depending on the state of ENSO during that time we may have to start using Nina settings for the remainder of August in 7/8/1. Which actually hold troughing into much of the east but slowly push it westward in time to about GL region. This will open the door for the east coast/SE to potentially see some tropical activity push in as we go to mid to late month of August. Hot the rest of this week into the weekend and then we should start to get closer to average toward middle of next week maybe finally increasing rainfall chances with it too. Looks like some fun times ahead.

It could be many reasons. This version is 5N-5S, CPC maybe uses a different buoy source versus TAO, CPC may lag a bit to TAO display, etc. Unfortunately I do not have those answers other than TAO is sourced around 2N-2S versus CPC which is 5N-5S. Just showing all the updates available to us.

It is trying latest 100-180 subsurface reading shows we are closing in on levels we saw back in April.

Just a quick update June and July TAO data and Hovmollers. You can see that the Easterlies did try to have an impact on the pattern but have since been replaced with weaker trades. Maybe we are shifting the forcing like Bluewave had mentioned in earlier posts as possibility going forward.

I dont remember stating 22-23, I did post about 2020 (since this was a first year Nina situation) though maybe that is why you keep mentioning 22-23 year? To use 2020 as an example this was the pattern that looked almost identical to placement for your July picture. By the looks of it forcing should have been much further east due to those rather anomalous waters around New Guinea, but that wasn't the case. Was 2020 just an anomaly to the situation? 1998 (since this was also a first year La Nina) seemed like reasonable placement due to the waters around Sumatra actually showing a more positive value than most in the pacific, besides the lasting affects of the super Nino into almost mid summer across 1+2 region. 2005 had a funky look as well a westward displaced forcing compared to where greatest warm values were. Honestly this year should look fairly similar to 1998 VP with the warmest warmest waters overall near Sumatra or a less intense version of 1998 and broader -VP but as shown that is not the case. Is the atmosphere essentially trying to split the difference because both areas are almost equally warm? I do have to go though so ill try to get a response in tomorrow when Im at work all day.

My point was not about the hurricane season it was more along the lines that we have seen this type of VP pattern before without necessarily having an over abundance of equatorial warmth near the Maritime Continent and the blazing warmth around Japan. So there must be something else to it than just those two features. Maybe it is possible those two features help to amplify the pattern a bit more over the recent years but 1999 just did not have the Maritime warmth we are currently seeing yet had a very similar setup, 1998 was fairly similar but more toward Sumatra region than New Guinea. I do get your point though on the hurricane season and this for sure interrupts that process even with indicators through the roof.

So we saw a very similar VP map to this year back in 1999, 2017, and 2018. Im sure if I ran through the years we could probably find fairly similar looks. 1999 in a second year Nina we didn't have the equatorial warm pool but we did see the warmth SE of Japan giving the PDO -2.34 in July. 2017 had a developing Nina but was rather weak overall PDO was actually positive neutral during this time and didnt have the huge Japan warmth (was more displaced to Korea and mainland China. We did have the equatorial warm pool east of New Guinea. 2018 was actually a weak Nino but managed to have a fairly similar VP response had the warmth SE of Japan in a fairly similar spot to 1999. Also having the warm pool east of New Guinea. However during the developing 2020 Nina event we managed to have a more typical response in July as shown by your maps above. PDO state was negative but weakening and the waters around Japan were not quite as warm. The waters in the IO near Africa were more anomalously warm then near New Guinea maybe that helped in shifting the VP state for 2020? Ill make another post what I have SSTA wise for the beginning of July for these years, except 2020 which I only have until end of May. If you happen to have a better SSTA reanalysis I would love a link.

The last typhoon in the WPAC actually had a pretty significant cooling of waters around the Philippines and Taiwan.

Yea not some typical Nina like response. Has happened off an on over the past couple months with minor WWB events and models seemed to have forecasted the Easterlies a bit to strong at times.

Nah they seem to not have an alternative for the OLR data they used for MEI. NOAA has been having some pretty bad outages over the past couple of weeks so this is probably not on the top of their list, unfortunately. RONI may be reasonable thing to use for Fall and Winter at this point.

Im cautious with the GFS it has in fact pushed a more Euro like scenario as we move through time, so caution to the wind. It is a pretty potent wave coming off Africa right now and will be tough to see if it can develop for several days but the better environment is creeping slowly into the Atlantic as we move into August. I do expect at least one EPAC system to form though (potentially rather weak?) before we get things going into the Atlantic. I believe after the first weekend of August we should get the ball rolling a bit but that is almost 2 weeks out.

I believe reconstructed but never really dove into it too much as they are fairly accurate for many of the years in the satellite era. Here is the site if you wanna dive more into it. https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/ocean/t-eq_tcc.html https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/ocean/t-eq_tcc.html This goes to ~1947

Latest extent map but man sea ice thickness has seemingly taken a hit this year. I couldnt get a date to match as there were many many gaps in last years data from the navy site.

I would be cautious in that thought for now. Let us see how we do between now and mid August before those call can be made. If forecasts for MJO come anywhere close to phase 1-3 the Atlantic could ventilate rather well, I don't expect much until about the end of the first week of August as we rotate through the EPAC should start to fire off a storm or two as we close out the month.

Little battle between the GFS and Euro/JMA as to the handling of the MJO progression coming up. GFS wants to swing this through 5-6-7 while Euro and JMA stop in 5 and move over toward null and eventually 8-1 (weak through 6-7) by the end of the month. This will be pretty important for potential Tropical activity going forward. They seem to be hitting the idea of a 5 pattern pretty well going into the last week or so of July with maybe a touch of 6 briefly. I used La Nada because we are largely still at this even with a decent subsurface look. This should help us a bit with a more stormy pattern into the ohio valley mid atlantic regions coming up. Of course depending on the upcoming weeks form will determine what happens as we go into August but would suspect if the Euro was right we see very little 7 influence and some 8-1 into August with probably still largely La Nada conditions. There doesn't seem to be a whole lot of data for an 8 passage in Nada conditions but if a phase 1 is any indication we see a weakness in the East and high latitude blocking occur.

Yea a 5N-5S approach shows we are still relatively weak even with the easterlies a blowin' right now. Should see some results before the end of the month, at least expansion westward of the cold neutral anomalies.

Here is 2007 and 2017 in comparison.

Here is the latest subsurface from beginning of June to the current date. Also added Hovmoller forecasts for the next 2 weeks.

Yea the biggest change by far has been overnight temps in all seasons. The biggest changes of course have been in winter but in summer we are feeling it a bit over this way. Average night temp is around 68 here at BWI we have steadily been around 72-75 with spikes of around 76-80 with this heat of recent. In the last month alone we have gone below 67-68 area about 4 times all the while being in a D1 drought. Hopefully it breaks for a bit coming up here the house is way too hot with no central air.