so_whats_happening

Just for reference from the last two super Ninos. Edit to add 2015 specifically as I do not have 1997.

So here was the large WWB event from the mid to end of May we saw the effects in about 2 weeks start to be noticeable in the subsurface configuration after the WWB took place. So far this one was a bit further east than the one that took place mid to late May. About the same magnitude but also had easterly progression from an event in May around 90-100E. This is typically how I see a WWB going to help relocate warmer waters further east and allow subsequent cooling to occur in its wake. This probably was the stepping stone to where we are with getting the +IOD to form as well as the final nudge in August which was an even slightly further east WWB event. Mind you nothing has stirred up east of the dateline to date but the weakening of trades definitely spread across Nino regions from not only the WPAC WWB but a minor EPAC WWB working in tandem. Now it is possible we see something in similar fashion take place but with yet again further east placement of this new WWB. Although again I am unsure what a west propagating WWB means in warming ( guess we will find out) overall though OHC in the 100-180 region didn't move all that much even with the large WWB event in May and August. Can also do one leading up to August and past the August event if folks are interested. This alone is the reason I do see us going to +2C for a bit but I do not for see it sustaining itself long let alone getting much above that as we move forward. Again I only see the warmth maybe lasting a month at best and that may be giving it more credit than I should.

September and October I believe will end up about the same as far as monthly means go. As for peak I do not believe this has occurred yet. I still do see about a months worth of floating around 2C this will help nudge the ONI up but still be below that 2C trimonthly that has been floating around for sometime. OND peak is likely and we will have to wait and see what happens after we get into November, but if we continue on the path we have there is about a 2-2.5 month difference in between large WWB events over the entire life of this Nino. This would put another around early January which would most likely just help drag out the Nino instead of it collapsing but that is to be determined. I personally feel this is the last solid push we will see with this Nino event so it better be a big one to get even remotely close to a super trimonthly average.

Been trying to remember to save these as well since it shows a broader look of the Pacific.

Very cool to see the bounce between the 2 hemispheres given fairly similar situations, only thing is we have a stronger nino this year. Can i find this on BOM website?

Temp trends for a few days now have been showing warming taking place near Java/Sumatra. That is all i simply pointed out. This would reduce the temp difference across the IO and thus start to lower IOD values going forward. You would need a rather dramatic reversal in the next 2 weeks to start a replenishment of the cooler upwelling waters. With trade wind forecasts showing up more into the central IO and weakening as we move to November im not sure we see much more increase. Even some models show a peak in november area as you just posted. So it wouldnt be too far fetched to think peak has been reached.

Yea I am sure with enough digging around one could find a database with daily/ weekly values or something along those lines.

Yea Im still not sure what to make of the IOD for our area I have found it rather irrelevant but in the indo-pacific and Africa region definitely an instrument that needs to be watched for them. Definitely feels like a byproduct of Nina/Nino development but not everyone follows similarly in path so... As for daily PDO this is the only site I know that posts it for daily. https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/ On the top right you can see a quick glimpse of several charts that are highlighted.

So did we hit peak +IOD already? Let us see if we can get another resurgence of the cool anomalies to maintain the +IOD values.

Latest TAO/Triton Subsurface Not too much to speak of. Overall the Upper ocean anomalies have remained fairly steady now for a month. Still do believe we manage a month of near or over +2C as for trimonthly doesn't look likely as of now. Some funkiness in the VP map with minor subsidence across much of 3.4 not allowing a relaxing of the trades within that region. With the potential re-emergence of -VP over much of the IO I am curious what happens out there as we move toward November. Typically the end of +IOD is when the easterlies are disrupted and moved away from the equator so something to keep an eye on as we go through time. Ill wait to see how the models handle that secondary WWB near the dateline in the first week of November. This motion in -VP and overall funky displacement may mean we have a moving but low amplitude MJO wave into 2-3 as we move into November, we should finish up in 8 through October and maybe land in 1 to start the month.

Yea if I remember correctly things hit a wall around 6/7.

I wonder what the resulting responses will be when the trimonthly is attained. Lol one can only guess at this point. I think regardless of peak temp the idea is well laid out again barring some major shake-up in subsurface.

This one maybe? Long Term Surface Impact from Hunga Tonga.pdf

Happen to have a site for this? I don't typically look at computer models for this type of stuff except what gets posted.

Yes with the more consistent Nino-like atmosphere it is seemingly staying that way, I hope we continue this as we move forward. The cooling along the SA coastline should also be noted as this now pushes to a basin-wide Nino. The IO should be interesting to watch coming up here too. The trades are even stronger in due time from about 70E to about the East African coastline which may induce some warming of the cold anomalies around Sumatra and cooling in the western IO in time.

During that time we have also had very warm SST anomalies in the B.C./ Gulf of Alaska region this has definitely helped in allowing a more ridge potential to occur with a +PNA pattern despite having a very -PDO. We saw last year from June-October 2022 we also had quite a bit of +PNA and ridging occur. We switched quite dramatically in November though as cold water re-emerged in 3 and 1+2 and waters cooled dramatically off the B.C. to Alaska area and well we know how the rest went. As long as we do not see major cooling in that region and no major cooling in Nino regions 3, 1+2 it should stay even with a -PDO as is. The image showed a 'normal' region along much of that area with warmer anomalies more west I would want those along the coast line to help support a +PNA look continually otherwise it wavers back and forth and certainly do not wish those waters to cool as that will just guarantee a -PNA pattern to exist.

The more important aspects are the -PDO is still intact definitely taken a hit but still negative. Definitely will be a solid back and forth year for overall PNA with that kind of look along the west coast to Alaska. The +IOD is still there again weakened but still there we have a much more basin wide look overall for a trimonthly average around January. We are not too far off from these values currently the only thing different would be the continued cooling of 1+2 with time and a slow warming of 3.4 over time. I do believe we will see a +2 month sometime soon for 3.4 but i do not see continuation of that temp for many months just a slow demise the subsurface waters are just not there to keep it sustained for that long. Again this being that we don't see another massive KW as past events have shown to happen around this time of year. We have about 2 more weeks until November lets see how the end of the month progresses should get a much better idea of impacts to come.

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/ocean/t-eq_tcc.html Goes back to 1950 always defaults to the latest plot in the beginning Edit: guess it is now to 1947.

I like the thought makes sense, do you have thoughts on progression after this was this a one bump deal or could we get another bump next year?

So multi year Ninos were 1957-58 & 58-59, 68-69 & 69-70 (didn't want to include this one because it was low end moderate at it's peak), 76-77 & 77-78 (weak Nino overall but also had a cool surface in the WPAC), 86-87 & 87-88, and lastly 2014-16. Of course unfortunately there is not one matching this overall evolution but again a big missing ingredient is the much cooler waters in the WPAC. I did have that in mind for quite some time of a multi year Nino thought it would be like these past situations where the first year was mehh and the second year was much more pronounced again only year that was opposite of that progression and was stronger initially and weaker second round was 57-58. Certainly has been an interesting go about thus far and should be interesting to watch for October- December. We should have a solid feel of how this will progress further I feel by the end of the month. Let see how the ocean reacts to this WWB west of the date line and the weakening of trades across the other regions. https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/ocean/t-eq_tcc.html

Unfortunately there are not many sub surface matches as a strong or moderate El Nino to what is occurring right now of course that is to be expected. The interesting year was again 2009-10 looking almost similar in configuration with current time frame having a warmer EPAC. That year did experience a solid KW during the month of October that helped enhance the Nino from the weak/ low end moderate status to low strong. If this evolution is similar in idea we see a higher SST threshold than 2009. If we do indeed see the continued decline of 1+2 coming up here I do not think we will go negative but sub 2 and maybe 1.5 doesn't seem too far-fetched of an idea. I do believe 3.4 does push 2C for a month whether if is on a full month or between two months who knows at this point and im not sure it would matter all too much the only hope is that we do not peak early and can have solid forcing still show up through the later portion of the winter. 57-58 (strong), 63-64 (mod), 86-87 and 87-88 (hovered around mod/strong but was quite a crazy evolution), 02-03 (mod), 09-10 (strong). Most of these years were very modoki-like in SST configuration at this point in time 57-58 was the only year that had a warmer EPAC subsurface but had a much cooler WPAC. The evolution not quite the same but certainly was a notable progression from this image on. This was also a late peak year and seemingly is following pretty close ONI wise. By far the biggest aspect we are missing is the cooler waters near the WPAC in either surface or subsurface it definitely is trying to say the least.

Latest subsurface change since the end of September there has been quite the push on the thermocline in the last week. I do not think it breaks but should be fun to watch as the subsurface warmth slowly is losing ground. Areas further west though definitely a different story, that warm pool is not going away and even expanded. Some +2C breaking the surface around 170-180W which is helping aid in the warming of 3.4 and definitely 4. There has been this rather consistent +VP placement around 120-150W not sure what to think about that yet.

This should help with getting a more consistent look of an Aleutian low while waters off Japan are still cooling they are cooling much less than it has been, long ways to go it seems for destroying the -PDO but we should see a nice tick down for the monthly number.

Yea the ever persistent subsurface warmth under 4 is surprising for a Nino year typically this area and just west would have cooled down by now. 1+2 does continue to cool more slowly as of now but there does seem to be less overall heat to work with then just a few months ago. As for the Kelvin wave it did look like at one point there was going to be one (minor event around 10/7-10/9 time frame) but that doesn't quite seem to be happening given that we have had a couple days to watch and see if something were to evolve. Will wait a few more days to see if there is any downwelling that shows up more so than what the animation shows, which was again a minor move of 28C waters in depth and the dispersion of the cool anomalies around 150W.