so_whats_happening

Can't find a source for the IOD data as presented, would love a link for those numbers as well as past numbers.

I gotta ask if I am doing this right say I wanna look at anywhere east of the dateline essentially trying to grab a 180-100W scope but since it is in east degrees would i put 180 to 260 as the input?

Gotta ask why use SSTA-global mean?

What is this in reference to tag me?

Gotcha I have not used that before so ill have to check it out then. I would like to see a stronger response to a cooling WPAC, in 97 we saw a much more widespread WPAC cooling take place from mid to late summer through fall, I tried to get as best to get monthly differences. When the +IOD collapsed around November into December things rapidly warmed in the WPAC thus starting the demise of the Nino. Now not everything plays out in the same manner but I would like to see much more negative anomalies abound otherwise we may be getting close to peak of +IOD in the next month? which may not allow the El Nino to set off another solid WWB event due to warming of waters that would take place because of a collapsed +IOD. Also take a look at the Atlantic I think that dichotomy is an important factor in all of this as we saw with the La Nina over the last 3 years where we had an "El Nino" Atlantic. Unfortunately do not have images like this past 1996 It is going to be a very interesting month to see how things shake out.

Also I did want to mention Im not sure the +IOD plays a factor in the strengthening of an El Nino. I believe it is more a thing that happens because the El nino is occurring much in the same way the PDO tends to change with an El Nino it can get strong or flip but it doesn't necessarily rely on the strength of the Nino to do so, I hope that makes sense. We had one of the largest +IOD events in the last 20 or so years back in 2019-20(+3.4 in Dec) the year ended up neutral, it may have offset the cooling that was happening so we did not have an even more extensive La Nina event but that is a big maybe, then we had back in 2015 (+1.41 in Nov) during the super the values were nearly half that of what occurred in 19/20. Before 2015 the last large spike besides 97/98(+4.08 Dec) was 2006/07 (+2.15) where we made it to upper end weak status. Back in 2009/10 we barely had a noticeable +IOD went to about +1 towards the end of the event (+.89 in Feb) and that was considered a strong year. https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/overlay-iod/ Unfortunately this only goes to 1993 unless others have a monthly database to get IOD data.

I guess it really is up to what source you use to detect changes in anomalies. CRW is rather warm while CDAS is rather cool in that region. It should become cooler than the last few years as the heat and subsurface warmth have shifted east, which is typical from Nina to Nino transition. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii In comparing years in similar time for region 4 1982: Sept 29.09 (+.33) Oct 29.44(+.67) Nov 29.27(+.57) 1997: Sept 29.44(+.68) Oct 29.34(+.58) Nov 29.39(+.69) 2015: Sept 29.82(+1.06) Oct 29.84(+1.08) Nov 30.13(+1.44) 2023: Sept 29.84(+1.08) You can see that over time the warmer waters have indeed stayed further west inhibiting probably full connection in Super events of more recent as Im sure you would see this in other strengths of Strong, Moderate, and even Weak. That is the competing factor issue. The eastern portions during this time were much higher in the three events (might be on par now with 2015 in region 1+2) and Im sure if we compared the areas in the east we would get somewhat similar increases in ocean temps relative to the average at those given times but the anomalies would probably differ by quite a bit. Probably the only surprising thing with this so far has been the massive warm up that took place in 1+2 at the beginning of the event, 1+2 typically have the warmest time as the Nino decays. The only other event that I have seen with such a big warm-up in 1+2 before the other regions was 1997 so I can see where the comparison for that comes from. Why we are not getting more cooling in the far western Pacific is beyond me honestly and definitely needs to be a study interest and hopefully some more information comes out about this over the years. When comparing SST's across the three events Region3,3.4, and 4 were much closer together temp wise which definitely makes it easier to have a much further push east of -VP, the difference was around 1-1.5C between region 4 and 3 with a much smaller difference in comparison of 3.4 and 4. 2015 at one point had almost a 2-2.5C difference between region 3 and 4 and nearly 1C difference between 4 and 3.4. So far for September (until we get more months in) the difference between 3 and 4 is nearly 3C and the difference of 3.4 and 4 is about 1.5C that is quite the gap to close and would mean we either cool nino4, which doesn't seem too likely as of now, or we warm 3.4 up quite dramatically to be able to a have better shift in -VP over more of the central/eastern Pac regions instead of west of the Dateline. Looks like we just have to wait for the results but would favor a further west -VP staying as it has all spring and summer even with the +IOD as it sits.

I had posted this in another forum but figured I would throw it here too. This is the 500mb composite using all El Nino strictly on the basis of 3.4 in the strong or super category ONI as we went into Winter. I did not include 1987-88 as that winter had peaked extremely early (august area) and went toward moderate during winter. I did however include 1991-92 and 2009-10 even though they had later peaks than usual. December looks about as typical as it gets January not bad but definitely a competition between Aleutian Low and Greenland High. Things balance out nice over February.

So we have a westward propagating WWB event due to an Equatorial Rossby Wave that will probably form a Typhoon in the far western pacific. This should induce a KW going forward, though im not entirely sure what comes of a west propagating event like this and how strong of wave could come of this so lets give it some time to see what may come of this. VP is taking on a rather weird look the forecast is trying to show a weakening in the WPAC -VP, of course we will have to wait and see if consistency comes of this. The spreading of more consistent -VP over the Central and East Pac has been waning a bit with each update. So the weak MJO going to more of a 1 position means the very eastern portion of the PAC and South America experience this -VP into the Atlantic. It will be interesting to see if this changes up as we go to the end of October.

IAH was probably the biggest surprise by far. Also the lack of heat getting up to BOS/ NYC was another surprise.

I made these while at work just to get an idea of what things looked like graphically. I have all other years like weak, moderate, and strong that I can show as well both Nina and Nino. Basically plotted OHC in the 3 sections (one basin wide, Nino region wide, and one we tend to see more of Nino region 3.4 with edges into 3 and 4 (100W-180)), temp from ERSST monthly for 3.4 and 1+2. I didn't include SOI as that would have really taken away from the graph visually but the monthly numbers can be seen. Forgot to update 1982/83 with 1+2 but the numbers are there. The 13 and 14 on the graph represent the next year. What I have noticed is that once we cross the OHC we tend to only have about .4-.7 more SST anomaly increase from that crossing point. The only times this has not been the case was from rapid warm-ups after we experienced the crossing. If you want other years Ill post them.

Yea pretty much if you scroll over at the top and do the different percentages that is a better way of looking at it. Basically if it is in purple it should end up warm or cold depending on the trimonthly and phase. Of course it should probably read a little less because of other random factors that get involved.

Latest update on Subsurface

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/readme.shtml This is the main site: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/ Go down a little and you will find this:

Dc. +1.6 Nyc +1.4 Bos +1.7 Ord +2.3 Iah +1.2 Atl +1.3 Den +1 Phx +.8 Sea +1.1 Late entry at 9:40am

New update to the subsurface. Ill keep saving into October but wont have much time to post have some busy days coming up here will do so when I get a free chance again.

Conveniently leaving out the rest of the quote does not make this post any better man. I thought the whole idea of a strong/super el nino was to not rely on the large amplification mjo waves to help produce results. Nino should have already been able to do so? Btw i dont think anyone has denied the idea that another round of warming would come, it was always a matter of when and how intense. I have been mentioning for a while the time pattern would suggest mid to late october from back in early september when were having a similar talk. Going to be very interesting to see what happens as trades look to continue to hold a cap on things through the first week of October, maybe longer?

Wow if that was not the best example of someone copying anothers thoughts then i dont know what would be better... kinda wild!

This has actually been hit quite a few times by rather strong cooling episodes and has been rather resistant for most of the summer, so we shall see. Feel we need a significant typhoon to move through that region to really stir things up. Slow moving would be the best.

Here is 2023 Technically if we are basing it off of ONI we are in moderate to strong territory for the summer I made a composite of mod-strong years at this time of year.

I will say he isn't just saying it for nothing, probably not the best way to approach it but here nor there. Nino 3.4 correlation to SLP for June through August and each particular warm ENSO event with weak, moderate, strong, and super events during the summer time period. Edit: It goes moderate, strong, super, weak in descending order

Woof someone is angry for some reason. Anyway CPC did actually update on the subsurface and this gives us a much broader look.

As always thanks for this Roger. Sorry I have been removed a bit from doing these it has been quite a busy few months dealing with work (the 1st comes and goes real quick!). I should hopefully be able to finish out the rest of the year.

Yea CFS does seem off it does seem like it is trying to capture the real time situation but going a bit too much. If I remember correctly, I would have to look back in the pages to find it, but I do remember some models were having a leveling off around this point they had another bump up as we got to November. Now will this happen honestly no clue but we also don't have many clues yet for how long this current situation will last. We definitely seem to be sloshing the waters in the East/ Eastern Central Pacific quite a bit so it is not unreasonable to think there may a slight uptick in OHC because of this again whether that adds to 3.4 and other regions is something that will need to be watched. As you posted the U anom map earlier I don't see a WWB event propagating east or west showing up yet as we have seen in the past couple of months. We do not see the EPAC firing off any more hurricanes so that season is probably done, this helped aid in some west propagating minor WWB events some coincided with the WPAC event and constructively worked together. So it remains that status quo is probably the best idea for now but lack of any events will ultimately eat up heat content until such an event can help re-enforce a warming timeframe. Still have been holding onto the idea for awhile now that end of October may feature such an event to re-establish itself but that remains to be seen. The September event that was talked about has failed and models just didn't quite get it right. Either way we definitely have slowed momentum for the time being let us see what happens in the next 2-3 weeks as that will definitely tell us a lot going forward.

I get that and maybe it is just me but I tend to see that region under 200m (between 200-300m) as rather negligible as there tends to not be too much change that occurs at those levels on the positive or negative side of things. We should get a better sense by the end of the month what is happening.