so_whats_happening

You can see the regions that have not had strong ice melt from how the 500mb pattern has setup. The region of the Beaufort was already rather worrisome as we left winter ~1.5 meter thick ice as we were heading into spring spells for bad results in the summer. Strange to see the Kara sea holding up rather well still. I know it is the Navy model some folks do not like but still believe it shows how things are going relatively well.

Huh never took the chance to graph it like this but it is interesting to see that before 1994 RONI was typically warmer than ONI itself.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +2.4 +2.2 +2.7 +1.8 +1.2 +1 +1.3 +1.9 +1.1

Yep and an increase or decrease in cloud cover plays a very important part in radiative balance. Even something as small as 2% can make a large difference, cloud height also plays such an important role. Was discussing with one of my colleagues on the situation (he works with NOAA) they are not even sure what is going on with the rather abrupt increase over the last decade or so. To be higher continuously from a warming average is something we surely have not recorded take place. Truly something interesting to see happen.

Definitely will see the surface cooling as for the subsurface that will certainly be interesting to watch setup. I wish I had hovmollers from back around spring/summer of 2020.

Thanks for the site Ill keep that in my bookmarks. The GODAS has only updated to the 17th so TAO around then was like this. You can see on GODAS it did warm a bit toward the end not as much as what TAO is showing but will be interested to see if it follows suit in the next update (should be later today or tomorrow). Another thing though is GODAS, im pretty certain goes 5N-5S whereas TAO is only 2N-2S so it is showing a fairly narrow band right around the equator versus a broader region which could in fact be cooler over all. Intricacies like this though don't mean much in the broader sense. I would expect TAO to cool in the coming updates as we close out June and July to be a little more inline with scope of GODAS. Especially when seeing the hovmollers actually showing signs of a nice Easterly event through the first half of July. What I also did find interesting from that site is the CFS SST forecast for the western Caribbean, July it is just on fire but as we go through to October/November it cools quite a bit this tells me there is potentially quite the Caribbean hurricane season being projected from that model. Just something to watch going forward.

Here is a comparison date to date 2024 and 1998. I only use TAO as it looks cleaner with displaying purposes versus this which you kind of have to do some extra steps to get a similar look. This site also uses monthly data versus 5 day, monthly, and quarterly that TAO uses. TAO has limitations in date range though as it only goes back to I think 1988. https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/ocean/t-eq_tcc.html This is not to say we are experiencing something completely different as the moving average is still very real, so 1998 would look colder on a warming average (1991-2020 as the current average).

This is what I use from 1953- present https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/data/qbo.dat

Yea it is still early yet I do wonder still how strong we get though. The Subsurface looks to be warming up again toward the WPAC so it would seem maybe a quick blip into Nina territory. If I had to take a guess this early I would say we could push to -1 to -1.1 area with ONI just not sure it will last all too long yet. Gotta wait to see if the trades do enhance quite a bit.

My guess is due to the WWB event that took place through late May. You can see that trades weakened quite a bit during that time giving a very Nino like response to the ocean. Most sources see that warming that occurred not quite to the levels of TAO and CPC T depths did warm a little at the surface. That should erode rather quickly if we do indeed see trades strengthen coming up here into early July.

Quick Update on Subsurface via TAO with hovmolllers about over the same time period. Does look like we finally are starting to see possibilities of enhanced trades over the central and eastern Pac as mentioned early.

Rough lol

Month to date we see this is not terribly far off, especially with these plots being low reliability. Much higher heights over the north pole though which is throwing some differences in looks. Much warmer in the east than I had originally thought thought the cold shots earlier in the month would have been more pronounced, oh well you live and you learn.

This is about as typical as it gets for summer though. I will say this is a bit earlier then we typically see these temps in the East/ Mid Atlantic, we usually wait until right around the 4th of July to mid July to really set in the heat. Surprisingly the dew points across the country are not too bad right now not use to seeing dews points in the mid 50's like this in June with a heat dome nearby. Since we barely have a noticeable wave with the MJO I would not be surprised if the pattern kind of recycles on itself for the foreseeable future. We essentially dropped in null around 4/5, I used la nada since technically this where we are still there. I could see by beginning of July we may start to change things up a little maybe before a reset mid to late July as always still rather early though.

Nothing as of yet they still seem to be having some issues. I hope this can be resolved by the end of the summer but have this feeling we may not see it this go around of ENSO. It will be interesting to see as we get toward the end of summer if we can start to enhance trades at all, right now that is a piece that seems to be lacking specifically over the East/ Central Pac.

I wonder if this will have an influence on the development of the La Nina at all again typically you would want an Atlantic El Nino with a Pacific La Nina and vice versa but I still do wonder if the the WPAC still being rather warm is playing a role in shifting how things set up. Lets give it to the end of July to see if this holds or strengthens in any meaningful way. I think it is still too early to call it a dud of a season for hurricanes and development of La Nina. Personally Im rooting for a neutral year but if the La Nina pattern really takes hold could easily see low end moderate via ONI.

Thanks that is where I meant, Baffin Bay. For some reason that completely slipped my mind, appreciate the correction.

This is a visual/graphical perspective for folks for each region. I am kind of surprised to see the Kara sea region holding a bit more ice than past seasons (at least of recent) for this time of year. One thing for sure that seems to be helping it out is the snow in the surrounding lands has not melted out yet so another visual of how snow impacts the overall health of the ice into summer time. Snow near the Chukchi/ ESS region also holding on a bit. https://cryospherecomputing.com/regional.html Things may try to steady out a bit coming up here in the CAA and Beaufort regions maybe leading to less overall decline but that region is looking rather ragged. Is the Labrador sea grouped in with CAA data?

Going to bump Boston to 100 instead of 97 and ORD to 97 instead of 95 if I read the little note correctly.

Sound advice and looking back after being out of school for nearly 9 years I can say I don't regret it one bit but it is tough out there trying to push into certain sectors. I would say don't be afraid to look outside the box so to speak as you may find something you never would have thought to be fruitful but has treated you well through the years. The bold is by far the most important thing I would ever recommend to anyone pursuing the degree. About to start in a program for my masters and hope to be able to get the next leg up needed to push further into Meteorology. Network, Network, Network!

I do remember this winter, was the first winter I remember having severe weather in February (actually had nickel size hail falling and accumulate on the ground) to getting a 18" snowstorm a month later. Was definitely a roller coaster and that seems to be the case going forward at least in terms of what happens around the mid atlantic. We have really really warm periods or really really cold periods (nothing seems too sustained) and really snowy periods or nothing at all and flooded by rainstorm after rainstorm. Again looking locally only, we do not seem to be able to properly keep the ground frozen for a long period of time anymore. We do get a hard freeze but when temps in the middle of winter don't have a sustained low below 20* for more than a few days it becomes rather hard to keep a solid frozen ground. This rather warm low also makes it a bit difficult sometimes with these systems that have us right along the boundary. What use to be the rain/snow line around 95 has definitely pushed back further NW compared to say just 15 years ago. Much more in the way of mixing situations around my locale when we would manage just to be able to squeak out an all snow event. Just a few things I have noticed more so over the last probably 10 or so years. This is not to say we have never experienced this just that it seems to be happening of more frequency. Working at BWI for almost the last 9 years we have had pretty bad snowfall ever since the 15-16 winter and the only reason we got something decent then was because of that monster snowstorm in January of 2016. The last close to average snowfall was 2018-19 with 18.3". We have had quite a few extremely low snowfall years of recent (from about 2000 area on) when they would occur maybe once a decade before. There does tend to be a noticeable decline in snowfall after these heat spikes have occurred, but unfortunately snowfall can have rather wild swings down here. https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwisnow.pdf

Seems like they still are having some data not come in properly. I hope as well this gets straightened out by end of summer.

Yea you typically dont have a cooling in the EPAC and the Atlantic. I wonder if this has to do with the ever resilient warmth around the maritime throwing things off a bit. From looking at some of the past Nina/Nino episodes typically you have a warming EPAC with a cooling WPAC and Atlantic and vice versa when entering Nina state. Since the WPAC just has not cooled maybe we are starting to see a different setup take place? As always a bit too early to tell what will come about.

Cant post the loop of the Euro because of the file size being just too big, results are fairly similar.

That is some impressive forecasted movement to say the least.