so_whats_happening

Also wanted to post the latest for July and August via TAO on the subsurface look between 2N and 2S.

Did a very quick rather busy chart on excel. Basically it is the JJA ENSO data from CPC in blue and Ace numbers for the season in orange. Now this doesn't help explain where we came from like previous winter may have been Strong Nino and we crashed to weak nina by summer as an example which could play a role. This is for every year from 1950 to 2024. Edit: Had to fix it so you could see every year. Shame it does not have dots for Ace to see the years better.

Looks like we circle 1-2-3 again coming up through the last 3 weeks of September, some even show 8 with the cool neutral look we currently have (we wlll see). Should open up the door for a handful of systems but where we go into October will leave us with clues going into winter. Definitely weird we would have a slow season if we are indeed in a Nina state as well as getting recurves typically not a normal occurrence of being in a Nina state and a cool ending to summer also does not add up either.

Wow great forecast Rodney S

Yea it was interesting to watch the Beaufort region this year not many years have remained intact in this region. If we did not have such an abysmal growth season we could have managed a rare positive uptick within the downtrend. Will be interesting to see when we officially hit the floor and just how the beginning of the season sets up. We did just get a massive warm region showing up over the last couple months in the Atlantic near northern Europe that im sure will play a role in how this year goes for growth.

Nice 90 day loop

Seems reasonable the atmosphere looks really nice coming up and in a good warm pocket. Should at least get 3 days of major hurricane status.

Rough guesstimate depending on just how strong the system gets coming up here but we should get close to about 30 ACE on the year which for the date will be just slightly above average, have 6.6 right now. Will be interesting if we get any follow up storms after this one to end out the month. https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic

It is the same issue I had with folks thinking there were not 2013/14 style patterns showing up last season but since it did not snow nearly as much last year it was not a match. Not everything is exact and unfortunately you will not change the minds of folks, it is what it is. To redistribute that amount of warming you likely need consistent typhoon recurves and at that strong consistent synoptic activity coming off China/ Koreas/ Japan. Tropical activity has been very sluggish in the WPAC for some time and when we do have activity the main track has been almost due west at low latitudes with the stronger systems (maybe 1 or 2 systems in a season actually recurving) or 'home grown' systems (close to land formation). Honestly let's just see how it all plays out.

I mean there is a lot of warmth with depth that has yet to be mixed. We do need much more in the way of tropical/ synoptic activity to really overhaul this region which will take time. There is definitely a noticeable shift trying to take place but the pattern is still very much entrenched across the region. As much as I want it to change it still needs time to make these changes.

Pick your poison a week plus out you either get the threat of TC landfall and warmth over much of the East or you get cool and storms get scooped up out to sea.

I still find it very weird that we can use new baselines and the anomalies that are associated with them as facts (especially temps) but yet we use this chart above as fact taking out that baseline increase... https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_current/5km/v3.1_op/animation/gif/ssta_animation_30day_large.gif

It is trying we need to continue to see the onslaught of tropical/ synoptic activity holding the ridging pattern out there at bay. It more so looks at this point the waters are just being displaced yet again across the region like we saw last year. One noticeable feature has been the warming of waters around the Bering Sea versus the last couple of years where we saw a large cool pool which would thwart any effort into ridging staying in the EPAC. Still got a long ways to go but good signs none the less. Kind of still liking this idea of a 500mb pattern as we get into winter. It allows some relaxing of the horrible winter pattern we have had over the last at least 5 years across the Mid Atlantic.

Legitimately if this had not started out as one of the lowest winter time volumes recorded this would have been an amazing retention year. The pattern was damn near perfect to lock in ice and cooler temps. The biggest help has been the lack of Canadian warmth up to the Archipelago. I don't even think the NW passage will open this year given we have about 3-4 weeks left of melt, unless this pattern completely flips on us.

Should have saved this until tomorrow but whatever here is all of June/July and the 1st of August.

To me at least this is telling me we are slowly cooling off the WPAC with no real discernable changes in the central and EPAC with SST. Baby steps.

Yea TAO has the cool pool further west and a smidge cooler. Overall though placement of warm anomalies isn't too far off from each other. This is the second weakening of trades that has occurred over the summer last was around early June so I'm curious if we start to see the westerlies that have been stuck around 90E start to wane in any shape and develop further east toward the maritime continent (120-150E). We still keep getting random bouts of a Nino like response even with the -PDO where it is and the weak cool/ neutral SST profile.

Totally forgot DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +1 +.8 +1 +.9 +.6 +.5 +1.5 +1.8 +1.6

Amazing no one likes to comment on thoughts and actually have a conversation in this thread it is either arguments or silence. i still see why raindance has essentially stopped posting.

Lol im not sure I understand this idea of his that the Caribbean can not foster a storm until it hits global mean average. Beryl came through early in the season (early July) but the next storm didn't form in the Caribbean (west) until Helene which was in the 3rd week of September. The SSTs were on fire last year but that did not dictate if the Caribbean would produce a storm. If the environment leading into the Caribbean was a little less hostile we would see a storm be able to do just as Beryl did or Helene. Remove the shear currently in place, which seems likely in the coming days, and a decent system tries to roll through it will produce. I feel like we heard this last year that ACE could not hit above average too. Edit: Why does it also have to go through the Caribbean to be an active season.

Have a feeling we may start to finally relax a bit on this -PDO pattern. Tropical storm and typhoon activity on the rise in the WPAC in fact the one ongoing system Krosa (I believe) looks to attain at least the equivalent of a cat 2-3 going over some of the warmest water anomalies east of Japan before recurving and going extra tropical creating a large wind field for this time of year as it nears the Aleutians. We will have to see if this continues because a one and done will not do the trick. I do not expect the PDO to completely flatline from this but we are starting to see signs of a shakeup in the continual ridge setup that has been around east of Japan. The cold tongue off Baja and California is also starting to neutral out if not go slightly above average as we go into August. Forcing also weakening up a bit around the Maritime continent and pushing closer to the dateline more often giving the MJO a 6-7-8 look. You can see the relaxing of +VP over the Atlantic coming up. Might even have a sneaky little system in the Atlantic to be on the lookout for as we head into August. While the pattern is not conducive right now it is also changing with time so we need to watch for any type of systems that make it to the eastern Caribbean islands in the next week.

To be fair it is not perfect but got the idea. Little rough for the mid atlantic/ ohio valley pattern

Yea it is reasonable to think we break the mode every once in awhile like we did last year. I have been meaning to see what inevitably breaks the -PDO down from past events regardless of value. What trigger atmospherically kicks it down and switches it over because as we have seen ENSO doesn't quite do the trick. Im more so excited for the break from the 70+ dew points coming up on tuesday.

If we get any potential of Typhoon action and especially recurving Typhoon action it will fail.

Lol I just saw that. Given early indications of simply just looking at configurations I don't think this is a bad take for potentially happening this winter.