so_whats_happening

The difference in overall depth of the warm anomalies looks to be an artifact of the -PDO still being around. During the 2023-24 Nino this was centered around 130-140W. We also are lacking a significant negative anomaly region developing near the Dateline. I gotta ask the question though are we seeing Nino take on a new form with SSTs the way they are globally?

Im not going to play catch up since I have last been on here but here is TAO from May through July 4th, I'll be taking out May next update around mid month.

If anyone finds discrepancies in the numbers please let me know. For the deductions for June I picked 7 stations to knock down 1 point and 6 stations for RJay.

Im honestly debating on the late entries for this month (July) as it stands these are the forecasts and the what coinciding late entry percentages look like. Ill maul it over and if see if anyone else wants to chime in about it. Ill see if I can also do a quick update for max temps and where they stand thus far in a week or so.

Ok sorry for the delay got back on the 4th and was bombarded by storms, lost power and internet. Then yesterday we had flash flooding still no power, hope it comes back tomorrow. We had very little movement in numbers. We had a few late entries and they are marked with * 1% for those affected most were 7 points off RJAY ended up only 6 points off the original total so not much of a difference. I included a consensus number to both GaWx and Stormchaserchuck for the months they were missing to get an idea if they had played through where they would stand in the far right column.

@Rjay @GaWx I think are the only 2 that have not submitted. Up to folks how they want to handle the late entries (quite a few by just a few hours). Ill be back early on the 5th so I should be able to post updates, iffy connection at times so hopefully this goes through. Happy 4th everyone!

DCA: +3.0 NYC: +2.3 BOS: +2.1 ORD: +3.2 ATL: +2.1 IAH: +1.8 DEN: +2.5 PHX: +1.6 SEA: +2.1

Sorry I probably should have worded it a bit better. They are Max temps for the entire summer at those locations.

Good morning folks please place July forecasts below when you get the chance with the typical deadline of July 1st by 6z. I will be away for vacation from the 28th to the 5th of July so Ill do my best to compile all the values when I get back then. Ill try to do a quick update before I leave of what the results of June will look like around Friday (26th) since there shouldn't be major changes that occur.

Here are the Max Temp forecasts

A lot of this gets lost in the miasma of whatever happens in this thread. Thanks and I agree while records could be set if things set up perfectly that contrast west to east is important in overall effects we will see in the CONUS. We have not been able to get the contrast of warm east cool west of the tropical Pacific for awhile. I would like to think a quicker onset of the Nino might play a role in the winter outcome as well.

So when can we start to discuss the differences between how these two similiarish ENSO events will evolve?

Any thoughts to why we still seem to be crashing hard in Phase 7 to COD/weak 8 for MJO? We saw this in 23/24 as well.

Well for starters I feel we are not easily getting rid of the -PDO state we will need to watch how this evolves into the end of summer. Around now through August has been the timeframe we have seen the -PDO dip hard over the last 2-3 years. I do believe if we can maintain where we are now we stand a chance at having a +PDO (weak) spike as we go into winter. As for the ENSO state I have been very leery as far as overall strength of this event but currently it looks like a strong Nino is well supported, super not out of the question but I'm not sold on it yet. The -PDO will fight back on that potential and I personally can't quite place it but something feels a little off for super chances. I could be wrong with that and that is fine, a few tenths of a degree anomaly between strong to super is not going to make the world of difference on the overall effects we see come fall/winter over the Conus. Placement of ENSO forcing is the big one that needs to be watched with the second being to overall strength of the event, if we have further west VP and anomalies compared to past super events this becomes a different outcome for the forcing come winter. I would also like to really see the uptick in tropical activity that tends to take place from El Nino events through much of the Pacific. If the central Pacific tends to have more of the storms this season versus EPAC we are on the path probably to a more Modoki style Nino. The waters off Baja have cooled quite a bit over the last few months this is that kick from the -PDO still in play as well as the cooler waters around Alaska. As Bluewave states over and over, ad infinitum, the warm pool east of Japan is certainly still playing a role in how things progress and even much of the South Pacific is still very warm. In some ways we are starting to see some dual warm regions take place which is fascinating to see. You have competing factors still at play in the subtropics and mid latitudes that certainly will affect the outcome of this event. It still amazes me even with the warming of the central and EPAC tropical waters that MJO just halts at 7 and pushes to COD. Lastly the Atlantic... Are we about to witness a reversal in the AMO? We also don't have the classic Atlantic La Nina taking place yet through the tropics this will also be something to monitor coming up. If folks can make a forecast this far out and know almost close to what will happen come winter good on you but to me there are still many things that show a lot of uncertainty still exists. If I had to guess at an anomaly standpoint for this event we end up fairly similar in threshold to the 23-24 event. Nothing else other than the anomaly threshold.

Just a cesspool like twitter in here, bunch of noise with very little thought. I'll remove April in future updates.

Asterik indicate slight point deduction with late entries. This was the first time it has happened so i'll keep it lenient (I also was late). Going forward I will still send a reminder the day before entry is done and we will go from there. Good luck in June!

No worries we will keep it just a small deduction (barely noticeable), the date snuck up on me as well.

@Stormchaserchuck1 @RodneyS @bkviking @dmillz25 If you would like to participate in the Max temp forecast for the same monthly cities throw a forecast up before Friday 6/5 at 6z. Anyone else who has made a forecast is free to change it up until that time.

I'll update for the June forecast later waiting to see if we have dmillz25 join for the month but so far myself and RJAY will have 1 % deduction for a late forecast.

Finally got a chance to finish the 2025-26 snowfall forecasts. In the orange are the actual season totals, in blue are totals that were forecasted under the actual snowfall that occurred. Everything in white is a forecast that was above actual totals. Red indicates the winner. Error points were done that every 0.1" away from the total was 0.1 of a point. For instance Boston was 62.8" this year, if you had a forecast of 40" that would be 22.8 error points or if you forecasted 80" your error points would be 17.2. NYC and Boston surprised folks the most this year which granted large error points. We will set this up again around November forecast timeframe. I will add Consensus and average for this as well going into the next forecast time (Average will be based on 1991-2020)

February was the only month you had missed. So yes you certainly are giving him a run for only having 4 of the 5 months so far.

We had quite a bit of moving that took place from last month to this. The contest is still very close so continue to do your best. Here are the annual totals up to the end of May scoring for May can be seen on the previous page.