so_whats_happening

We are finally seeing an appreciable cold pool form so we may be at the peak of WWB events in the next month, doesn't mean the WWBs can not continue but the severity of them should start to wane soon. At this rate I am also not so sure we go right into a La Nina and a deep one at that, of course time will tell.

Medium to long range in every model are trying really hard to disrupt the consistent ridging episodes near Japan and east of there. Let's see how things shape up mid to late month.

To me this would more so impact modoki or similar to 2023-24 Nino type events if we had a CP EOF versus what is currently shown above, i'm not sure having a second EOF would impact the logistics of an EP Nino like we are currently seeing take shape. The amount of CP or west based Nino events is rather low and anything typically below the threshold of moderate status (i.e. weak to neutral) in either ENSO state tends to have overriding features that dictate what midlatitudes tend to see, they just add a little flair from the tropics. V wind is important because if winds are converging the forcing in the U direction will be stronger versus that of a diffluent flow which would have less umphh to move waters. OHC is not going to dictate the strength of a Nino/Nina event always. Take for instance the Nino of 1986-1988. ONI reached 1.5 in the summer of 1987 in this multi year event, RONI actually peaked at in the winter of 1986/87 at 1.5. MEI recorded it a staggering 2.1 in the beginning of summer of 1987. OHC on the other hand barely scraping to over one and it did so for 1 month. These other variables dictate how much the OHC will rise or fall so they encompass this aspect already just not the raw number of OHC. The OHC tends to rhyme with ENSO state but never the full story of the strength of the ENSO state. I wanted to add too look at the OHC for 1983/84 after the super nino comparing it to the other metrics listed below. Again OHC rhymes (often) but is never the reason for strength. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/ RONI https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/oni/v6/ ONI https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ MEI https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt OHC

No worries, I am not sure why they decided to have two updating values. Always trying to improve is an important aspect in life. Criticisms are an important part in this field as it helps build ideas and potentially new technologies for us all to use and benefit from.

This is an EOF encompassed by several EOFs though (5 to be exact) so in some ways it does have multiple like many of the other indexes do just not the repetitiveness of one defining several different areas typically 2 EOFs exist per index. RONI hit 1.4, MEI hit 1.1 while SSTs showed roughly 2. You could make the argument of breaking down the east and west of SSTs as well as wind but since it still currently covers those regions I don't see how creating another EOF would improve the skill outside what we see. As 40/70 said it is strictly a metric for coupling within the tropics and I think it has done rather fine for virtually every Nino/Nina thus far. Again slow to show rapid changes but still shows when those changes occur. I would never put stock in one index to tell the whole story of what is going on whether it is SST, wind, OHC, OLR, etc. That is why the multivariate is an awesome tool NOAA could have done away with it when the old data was lost but there were many Meteorologists that reached out and wished to keep this going for reasons.

Never claimed to be the best met or honestly that good of a forecaster at all. Of course I like snow, not so much cold though hence why I don't live in Canada or Alaska or hell even New England or the upper Midwest. I love that I have been able to experience a near snowless winter and the most snow this area has ever seen in a matter of 12 years, I find it simply fascinating. A +10 December and a -10 February as well. Yep definitely had many reservations about this event. Stay or leave up to you. Make sure to put that little poop emoji to let me know you care!

You have never produced a single thing by yourself. You consistently post others thoughts from twitter and say yep this is what I think will happen as if what they are saying is exactly as you would say and will happen. I question it because it literally looks like someone else took the time to actually make this and you just copied it, then you also simultaneously demean so many others around you who have differing opinions and actually put in the effort to create their own thoughts (whether right or wrong) and images to show an idea. Then you go on a tantrum because someone doesn't believe you cursing and acting like a kid. You simply could have just said nope sorry I created this but thanks anyway. You really have a lot of growing up to do. Best of luck with that hope you find peace. Still don't believe you made it and simply do not care.

Im good thanks though. Carry on with your reading.

No one forced you to respond either yet somehow you felt it was important.

We are on page 127 of this thread and it is August nearly 50% of these pages are filled with crap.

You need to relax man twitter has you all up in a bind over nothing. You rage out on every poster who questions you. Fix those issues man.

You really need to start tagging other peoples work and not trying to show it off as your own even if it is from twitter.

"The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2) is the time series of the leading combined Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of five different variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)) over the tropical Pacific basin (30°S-30°N and 100°E-70°W). The EOFs are calculated for 12 overlapping bi-monthly "seasons" (Dec-Jan, Jan-Feb, Feb-Mar,..., Nov-Dec) in order to take into account ENSO's seasonality, and reduce effects of higher frequency intraseasonal variability. During the typical height of ENSO during late Fall/early Winter, the canonical features of atmosphere and ocean anomalies are shown schematically below based on a composite of 11 historical El Niño and La Niña events. Key features of composite positive MEI events (warm, El Niño) include (1) anomalously warm SSTs across the east-central equatorial Pacific, (2) anomalously high SLP over Indonesia and the western tropical Pacific and low SLP over the eastern tropical Pacific, (3) reduction or reversal of tropical Pacific easterly winds (trade winds), (4) suppressed tropical convection (positive OLR) over Indonesia and Western Pacific and enhanced convection (negative OLR) over the central Pacific (Fig. 1a). Key features of composite negative MEI events (cold, La Niña, Fig. 1b) are of mostly opposite phase. For any single El Niño or La Niña situation, the atmospheric articulations may depart from this canonical view." https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ What would this second combined EOF do exactly to help with this metric? A 'V' component to wind is important just not as functional in the sloshing of waters as the 'U' wind tends to be. Wind and SLP go hand in hand so they should carry the same weight. OLR is covered over a very large area of the equatorial Pacific it literally is measuring the intensity/location of forcing within the atmosphere. WWBs being further east and west is also important into the evolution of an ENSO (El Nino) event. I completely disagree that OHC should be added, SSTs do just fine. We already have RONI which is just stating the obvious of what is happening in a warming world with warming oceans. The only criticism I would have of MEI is it plays catch up in all events but it often signals when the state has changed properly. We have been also noticing more lately that each block tropics/subtropics, mid latitudes, and polar regions have not been cohesive with each other. So while the tropics may be humming along in an El Nino the mid latitudes can react very differently and can be destructive to the evolution of ENSO in either state. Just as much as the northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere will experience ENSO events differently. This El Nino has been awfully more impactful within the southern hemisphere than so far in the northern hemisphere. This could change but have yet to see those signs show up in the 500mb pattern. Unfortunately this has not updated for July so I can't do a longer comparison but over the time period of greatest warming and exertion of a changing ENSO state these are the 500mb maps and wind anomalies we have seen between these two events. We seem to be running out of resources for plotting data so we are left with what we can find. Just because we are having something producing similar numbers in SST anomalies does not mean things will follow the exact same way as a previous event did. Overall this just tells me in the near 30 years that ocean temps have become dramatically warmer globally, to a rather drastic extent. The implications of such we do not fully understand yet or how it will affect these events as we go through time.

I would be pissed if this dude kept tagging me in everything.

Sorry for the delay here is August. I think I want to try adding persistence into the new year. I will base it off of a 6 month running mean of the actual anomalies. If anyone has criticisms on this please feel free to let me know how best to approach something like this.

Now I understand, we use MEI now that it has finally caught up but before it was discredited as a metric because it was not showing what people wanted. This thread gets more funny by the day. I feel I should just create a twitter account based off this.

The one you seem to be discrediting has actually been more negative than the one you posted. 2020 -1.41 -1.48 -1.75 -1.32 -0.52 -0.75 -0.92 -1.33 -1.04 -0.62 -1.58 -0.98 2021 -0.61 -1.09 -1.67 -1.84 -2.04 -1.82 -2.00 -0.95 -1.96 -3.14 -2.75 -2.71 2022 -2.40 -1.91 -1.67 -2.09 -2.23 -1.31 -2.63 -2.38 -2.28 -1.81 -2.40 -2.21 2023 -1.24 -1.65 -2.45 -3.08 -2.41 -2.55 -2.54 -2.48 -2.99 -2.23 -1.79 -1.66 2024 -1.57 -1.34 -1.54 -2.11 -2.98 -3.15 -3.01 -2.91 -3.56 -3.80 -3.13 -2.03 2025 -1.29 -1.40 -1.12 -1.15 -1.66 -2.64 -4.21 -3.23 -2.31 -2.37 -1.51 -0.96 2026 -1.24 -1.00 -1.42 -1.62 -1.67 -1.71 -2.03 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat Versus 2020 -0.79 -1.12 -1.68 -1.32 -0.68 -0.86 -0.77 -0.85 -0.75 -0.29 -1.23 -0.92 2021 -0.73 -1.29 -1.70 -1.77 -2.33 -1.89 -1.93 -0.84 -1.70 -2.69 -2.37 -2.47 2022 -2.22 -1.72 -1.63 -2.19 -2.44 -1.42 -2.44 -1.78 -1.78 -1.48 -1.83 -1.85 2023 -1.24 -1.79 -2.50 -3.13 -2.46 -2.67 -2.44 -2.02 -2.52 -1.88 -1.16 -1.20 2024 -1.48 -1.33 -1.27 -1.99 -3.01 -2.93 -2.62 -2.37 -3.10 -3.24 -2.58 -1.57 2025 -0.97 -1.20 -0.81 -1.07 -1.84 -2.62 -3.83 -2.54 -1.71 -1.82 -1.02 -0.39 2026 -0.87 -0.79 -1.18 -1.28 -1.64 -1.32 -1.29 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat This one is the one that site uses.

There seem to be 2 different sites for the PDO. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat This one shows -1.29 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat This one labels it as -2.03

We saw some fantastic forecasts for July. Scotty Lightning gaining 710 points and was able to move up a slot but really close in on the large grouping we have. BKViking also had another strong forecast for July and managed to move from 4th to 2nd, while DonSutherland1 lost some ground on his strong lead but still holding the first place spot. All bold slots are those with the highest value in that category. As well as updated numbers for GaWx and StormchaserChuck1 on the side had they been involved every month. Remember we are starting to get into volatile season again so be prepared for some potentially strong movements and shifting of spots as we go into the Super Nino winter. I did not include the late penalties this go around as many would not have seen a significant change in total points taken off. I will do my best to send a reminder about 24 hours in advance so as to not have these penalties arise. I will add the Conus departures when it updates for me.

Forgive me on the wrong coloration for the highest and lowest values in each section, didn't even realize it until I went to do scoring today. Here is the updated with the anomalies for each region. Looks the surprises again were NYC and BOS with much cooler anomalies than many thought as well as SEA with a much cooler temp anomaly than expected.

I would like to add more context I guess, it is nice to see some actual recurves still taking place even in a weakened state of a storm the energy injection is still important. I do wonder though if this means yet again an overall weaker Aleutian low potential for winter, time will tell of course.

Now it will be interesting to see what happens from here. Looking back at 1997-98 we see there was a double peak for 180-100W OHC. 2015 we also saw this and 2023 again both years did have overall less OHC than 97 and this current year but both had a double peak, 1982 did not just had one continuous upward movement. My own thoughts would suggest maybe a September peak in OHC then a quick decline as we head into winter. The only problem with this is the lack of - anomalies in the WPAC subsurface we have yet to really see develop compared to other years with a similar temp profile. So as 180-100W may die out the overall 130E-80W and even just 160E-80W still stay relatively warm with those stronger negative anomalies not showing up leading to a more basin wide setup as we get to winter. Just thoughts floating around as we typically see the Nino events die west to east from an OHC stand point. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt YR MON 130E-80W 160E-80W 180W-100W 1997 1 .54 .49 .56 1997 2 .84 .85 1.00 1997 3 1.09 1.26 1.17 1997 4 1.49 1.87 2.17 1997 5 1.38 1.82 2.01 1997 6 1.55 2.01 2.25 1997 7 1.34 1.77 1.83 1997 8 1.07 1.50 1.79 1997 9 1.25 1.85 2.38 1997 10 1.35 2.05 2.56 1997 11 1.19 1.94 2.30 1997 12 .56 1.15 1.02 1998 1 -.24 .16 .00 1998 2 -.66 -.35 -.38 It is like if 1997 and 2015 had a baby. Shame we are not getting the western edge of TAO as those buoys are being worked on.

@dmillz25 @donsutherland1 @Rjay Just a reminder

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +1.2 +1 +.8 +.7 -.3 +.7 +1.6 +1.6 +1.7

Yea this one will be fascinating to watch unfold. The atmospheric pattern still resembles that of a La Nina/ -PDO mode in the northern hemisphere for sure. Even with the tropical activity in the WPAC this year (which is great to see) we haven't seen many recurving typhoons sinlaku was the closest to still being a typhoon while recurving. Most of the storms have still been tracking west which doesn't bode well for the PDO to flip, maybe we see that change as we get into fall.