so_whats_happening

Rather strong warming taking place in the equatorial WPAC seems to be aiding in the idea of region 4 being near record levels.

Unfortunately I do not have daily records but 2015 did set two weekly values of 1.7 so we are getting rather close to those levels with a large spike like that you tend to have some minor warming and leveling out afterward so wouldn't be surprised to see a weekly tie maybe beat 2015? Edit to add a picture of the anomalies during the run up to it. It goes 1+2, 3, 3.4, and 4

Yea that isn't much of a concern for me as it is for others. Im more interested in making sure there is still an El Nino through the winter and we don't fall off a cliff too quickly.

It is seeing the bump in the end of December to early January from the potential WWB. Think some of the models are being a bit too quick with progression of MJO and the aforementioned WWB around the dateline but time will tell.

Also did we just set the warmest Nino 4 has been ever?

There could be a decent amount of cooling that takes place over the next two weeks before the inkling of a WWB event and as of now that is not looking nearly as strong as what we just experienced. Dare I say that last was the final big push? probably too early to know for certain just yet. Finally seeing models tune in on the idea of a 4-5-6 low frequency pass instead of jetting it to 7-8-1. 3 should still be skipped as there are still cool waters and some subsidence present inhibiting much traction in that region for MJO enhancement. Wasn't really much of a +AAM spike like what we saw in previous warming episodes.

Been a min but here is the latest TAO. I decided to do daily during this WWB to see how things progressed. Ill go back to every other day as we get into December.

Pretty sure those take every single NDJ/ DJF timeframe and don't separate the ideas of ENSO influence. Typically December is cold in La Nina and warm in El Nino. These are warm ENSO composites with an MJO amplitude larger than 1, you get a good look at the trough/ridge pattern associated with them. If we were to include all amplitudes 6 is much warmer, 7 is not as widespread but still warm in the Mid Atlantic and East and 8 is a bit cooler in the Midwest/GL.

I sure hope so phase 6-7-8 in a December does not look all that great especially with the little delay on phases with MJO. I am hopeful the outcomes are different but I personally wouldn't expect much as we head through December.

It is possible but if we do see warming continue around the maritime region we would see a lot more of an active MJO than a null inducing one that sits in 8-1-2. So weird that everyone is down each others throats over temperatures.

Again not a big fan of the long range on these as they change quite a bit but not a terrible call so far for the GFS. Two maps a week apart but im not liking the -VP picking up again over the maritime region.

Yep and should give us a SON tri-monthly around 1.8 barely (1.75). Im curious to see how this holds going forward. This is finally taking on a more classic nino ending in the subsurface. Still a little wonky in comparison to other years around this time. Can not unfortunately go back before 1989, they look to be adding in to about 1977 in the near future.

Also definitely some interesting moves taking place in the TAO data.

We need some strong activity in the troposphere to show up before we really start to see changes in the SPV, meaning we need to see some wave producing systems to induce a weakening response. Large deep low pressure systems or some large scale blocking patterns to set up should do the trick. Again the typical timeframe to look anyway is about mid December to mid January to see any discernable activity, before that tends to be really rare situations. You can see a drastic shift occur when models finally start picking up on key signs, it can happen in like a week, although I would rather prefer the winter to already produce before an SSW as they do not always guarantee anything for us.

Definitely a nice WWB event though. The first almost full weakening of the trades we have seen thus far. TAO update the cooling in the WPAC continues look at the bite taken out of the 30C region around 160-170E. This will be the last I keep October in the mix since we are halfway through November.

Yep a nice pass through 3-8 is not all that horrible, short term can be rough long term could be a lot of fun. Good read on the MJO to SSW precursor as well as blocking patterns before SSW. Connection of SSW and MJO.pdf Blocking Precursors to SSW.pdf

If we didn't already know here is another look at it. WWB activity is not up to par for this year compared to many years. You can see a spike in 1982/97/2015. 1972 was a nice spike but lacked intensity and we are under everyone of them thus far even 2002 and 2009, 1994 was also higher. When we go into a more concentrated timeframe and space the lines become more definitive and show how lackluster these have been thus far.

Unfortunately did not save an anomaly during the mid April to mid June timeframe so the best I can provide is total U wind.

Happen to have the iod by chance?

If we hold onto 1.8 for another week via cpc outlook or even bump to 1.9 the average should be just under 1.7 for the trimonthly after that is a big ? The lack of any continual WWB will definitely hurt chances of reaching that super status for a weekly value going forward.

I do also enjoy your graphics what site do you use to for those DJFM maps? I also do the exact same on a spread sheet ever since college that has been my go to setup.

Yes with the record waters temps over the summer and the slow fade of them across the Central and West Pacific north of 20 we still have a solid -PDO depiction even with that weakly positive look off the West coast. That weakly positive look should help with flexing of the western ridge with the El Nino state present versus constant troughing when in La Nina but we will have this battle back and forth so long as the warmth near Japan remains constant. It is nice to see some pockets of cooler waters show up but we need it a bit more widespread to have an impact. Ultimately this could have flipped had we gotten a more robust WPAC tropical season like we typically see in an El Nino year. They would help generate these WWB patterns across the tropics then the models would have been right in there wild predictions early on. The more notable El Nino events all had total tropical activity in the 30+ storm range, I believe we are near 20 or so right now and all have developed relatively close to the Philippines region.

Looking at hovmollers we do look to have a nice break in the trades coming up around 4/3.4 in the next week so this should allow the temps to pump up a bit but this only lasts for about 3-5 days before quickly returning to stronger trades as we close out the month. The VP map I don't believe is something we wanna see where it retreats back to the maritime continent again. The total winds show that the +IOD has probably already peaked and will continue to warm which is a little earlier than other typical IOD peaks but within the timeframe they normally peak so nothing too crazy.

Ill also add in the more basin wide look from CPC up to the 9th since it seems to be updating fairly regularly again. In this one you can definitely see the cool pool expand a bit in the WPAC, on the other side of this ongoing WWB.

Latest TAO from Oct 15 to current. I will shortly be taking away October as the gifs are becoming long.