so_whats_happening

This is just the wake from Priscilla not sure it really strengthens much beyond that. You can still see the wake from Neoguri from the middle to late September just east of Japan.

Fascinating! Really cool chart.

There is a fairly large system being modeled going into this weekend right over the warm pool region. I think there is forecasted 60-80knot winds already starting to show up across the area. Should definitely help continue carving out the cooler waters and moving that warm pool. As for the Atlantic there is still a decent NW Atlantic warm tongue around Nova Scotia so we should continue to see ridging potential in the region and add the risk of things at times connecting with the SE ridge. Im still rather hopeful that average snowfall can be achieved this year across many areas. RMM plots never fully grasp the intensity of such waves but regardless it should be pretty intense wave to start things off for fall. We are a little off where we were last year at this time for MJO but it looks to follow a similar path and intensity as we did through October last year. Here are the SST anomalies last year as we ended summer and went into fall. The PDO last year had a double dip take place and October values, at the time, were some of the lowest on record.

It looks like the warm pool SW of the Aleutians may be on the move very similarly to how last year evolved. This should continue to push further east with time allowing the index for PDO to start to make a run to neutral status. If we do indeed start to push these waters further east toward the Gulf of Alaska it should allow for a weaker overall trough going into Canada then we have seen. The waters west of Japan into the Koreas and China is not dwindling any time soon but if the area further east does try to continue to cool it could play for a pretty impressive snow event or two as a giant lake effect event like they experienced a few years ago. https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html Also the MJO is finally on the move and actually becoming a wave versus the null action over the last 2 months. The enhanced trades are some of the furthest west we have seen in a long time this could very well continue to cool the waters at least around the eastern portion of the maritime continent as we go into late fall early winter. I would not be surprised to see one last system in the Caribbean for the month of October to close out the season as the MJO moves through 1-2-3.

Remarkably similar 2 month period with some probably pretty important differences.

Yea we will see what happens, I'm more so interested if this will actually show that negative anomaly being finally taken out. That feature has been present for a very long time even during the last Nino.

Just a quick update on the subsurface. Looks like it was a nice 'burp' in the ENSO state.

As always thanks Roger. It is nice to see as a consensus we do pretty well!

Oh boy a few hours late sorry DCA _NYC _BOS _ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA +2 +2.3 +2.4 +3.5 +1.6 +2.1 +1.4 +1 +1.6

Although it does look like the 850mb wind field may be trying to change up. Lets see how it plays out Last 90days and then the next 2 weeks potential.

To me it just shows that forcing, namely maritime, is not ever omnipotent. Could it go back to being continuously 4-6 absolutely but currently regardless of what phase we seem to be globally open although weak in most locations, every single basin is firing off tropical activity right now. While it is something we don't see all that often and for this persistent I don't see it more than that.

We peaked earlier this year with the extreme -PDO so the runway is a little bit better.

When they get going they have become really nice storms this year. Erin, Gabrielle, and Humberto all have had amazing satellite imagery.

I feel like there was a way but maybe that was a different forum I was on. So true though 100+ pages... im not going through that. CDAS almost looks representative to RONI output compared to OISST and CRW.

Man a lot to catch up on but it surely has been fun watching the forecasts for MJO over the last week or so. Also just saw OISST just updated they have been doing upgrades so things have been delayed quite a bit, call me whatever but I have this feeling we bottomed out already for ONI numbers will have to see as we go into early October if we continue to see it flatline if not rise. I forget how to look the post up for this I made earlier in the thread but still liking the idea of this look as we go into winter.

Not necessarily but it should help chances.

Lucky for you I have an anomaly map I saved from last year around this time. Im going to have to delete some images from earlier on this thread and last thread because im running out of space again. 400mb is a killer

Never said it was going to warm back up only said the pattern is still well entrenched, but we are continuing to see changes occur (slowly). The storm track was much further north last year than this year. Here is the first 25 days of August last year and this year. (Can't get to the end of the month because it has not updated) Here is August and September last year storm track significantly further north and toward the Bering sea with a strong low.

Nice little storm took place in the north Pacific this past week. Wiped a out some of the warmer waters, but still very much entrenched though. Need quite a few more larger systems to really knock it out. The most noticeable change from last year to this year is the cool pool is not set up in the Bering sea or gulf of Alaska.

They have been in every season for some time now. While daytime does get to some extreme levels for the different times of the year consistently the nights are well above average in every season. The most noticeable of seasons at least around here has been in winter. I mean it was like 2 years ago I think we had one evening below 20F around Baltimore the entire winter the rest were in the 25-35 range, that is huge in winter around here.

Last year to this year look at the subsurface.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -.3 0 +.2 +.3 -.5 -.5 +1.2 +1.4 +1.3 Sorry late by a few hours again

Also wanted to post the latest for July and August via TAO on the subsurface look between 2N and 2S.

Did a very quick rather busy chart on excel. Basically it is the JJA ENSO data from CPC in blue and Ace numbers for the season in orange. Now this doesn't help explain where we came from like previous winter may have been Strong Nino and we crashed to weak nina by summer as an example which could play a role. This is for every year from 1950 to 2024. Edit: Had to fix it so you could see every year. Shame it does not have dots for Ace to see the years better.