so_whats_happening

You need to relax man twitter has you all up in a bind over nothing. You rage out on every poster who questions you. Fix those issues man.

You really need to start tagging other peoples work and not trying to show it off as your own even if it is from twitter.

"The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2) is the time series of the leading combined Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of five different variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)) over the tropical Pacific basin (30°S-30°N and 100°E-70°W). The EOFs are calculated for 12 overlapping bi-monthly "seasons" (Dec-Jan, Jan-Feb, Feb-Mar,..., Nov-Dec) in order to take into account ENSO's seasonality, and reduce effects of higher frequency intraseasonal variability. During the typical height of ENSO during late Fall/early Winter, the canonical features of atmosphere and ocean anomalies are shown schematically below based on a composite of 11 historical El Niño and La Niña events. Key features of composite positive MEI events (warm, El Niño) include (1) anomalously warm SSTs across the east-central equatorial Pacific, (2) anomalously high SLP over Indonesia and the western tropical Pacific and low SLP over the eastern tropical Pacific, (3) reduction or reversal of tropical Pacific easterly winds (trade winds), (4) suppressed tropical convection (positive OLR) over Indonesia and Western Pacific and enhanced convection (negative OLR) over the central Pacific (Fig. 1a). Key features of composite negative MEI events (cold, La Niña, Fig. 1b) are of mostly opposite phase. For any single El Niño or La Niña situation, the atmospheric articulations may depart from this canonical view." https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ What would this second combined EOF do exactly to help with this metric? A 'V' component to wind is important just not as functional in the sloshing of waters as the 'U' wind tends to be. Wind and SLP go hand in hand so they should carry the same weight. OLR is covered over a very large area of the equatorial Pacific it literally is measuring the intensity/location of forcing within the atmosphere. WWBs being further east and west is also important into the evolution of an ENSO (El Nino) event. I completely disagree that OHC should be added, SSTs do just fine. We already have RONI which is just stating the obvious of what is happening in a warming world with warming oceans. The only criticism I would have of MEI is it plays catch up in all events but it often signals when the state has changed properly. We have been also noticing more lately that each block tropics/subtropics, mid latitudes, and polar regions have not been cohesive with each other. So while the tropics may be humming along in an El Nino the mid latitudes can react very differently and can be destructive to the evolution of ENSO in either state. Just as much as the northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere will experience ENSO events differently. This El Nino has been awfully more impactful within the southern hemisphere than so far in the northern hemisphere. This could change but have yet to see those signs show up in the 500mb pattern. Unfortunately this has not updated for July so I can't do a longer comparison but over the time period of greatest warming and exertion of a changing ENSO state these are the 500mb maps and wind anomalies we have seen between these two events. We seem to be running out of resources for plotting data so we are left with what we can find. Just because we are having something producing similar numbers in SST anomalies does not mean things will follow the exact same way as a previous event did. Overall this just tells me in the near 30 years that ocean temps have become dramatically warmer globally, to a rather drastic extent. The implications of such we do not fully understand yet or how it will affect these events as we go through time.

I would be pissed if this dude kept tagging me in everything.

Sorry for the delay here is August. I think I want to try adding persistence into the new year. I will base it off of a 6 month running mean of the actual anomalies. If anyone has criticisms on this please feel free to let me know how best to approach something like this.

Now I understand, we use MEI now that it has finally caught up but before it was discredited as a metric because it was not showing what people wanted. This thread gets more funny by the day. I feel I should just create a twitter account based off this.

The one you seem to be discrediting has actually been more negative than the one you posted. 2020 -1.41 -1.48 -1.75 -1.32 -0.52 -0.75 -0.92 -1.33 -1.04 -0.62 -1.58 -0.98 2021 -0.61 -1.09 -1.67 -1.84 -2.04 -1.82 -2.00 -0.95 -1.96 -3.14 -2.75 -2.71 2022 -2.40 -1.91 -1.67 -2.09 -2.23 -1.31 -2.63 -2.38 -2.28 -1.81 -2.40 -2.21 2023 -1.24 -1.65 -2.45 -3.08 -2.41 -2.55 -2.54 -2.48 -2.99 -2.23 -1.79 -1.66 2024 -1.57 -1.34 -1.54 -2.11 -2.98 -3.15 -3.01 -2.91 -3.56 -3.80 -3.13 -2.03 2025 -1.29 -1.40 -1.12 -1.15 -1.66 -2.64 -4.21 -3.23 -2.31 -2.37 -1.51 -0.96 2026 -1.24 -1.00 -1.42 -1.62 -1.67 -1.71 -2.03 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat Versus 2020 -0.79 -1.12 -1.68 -1.32 -0.68 -0.86 -0.77 -0.85 -0.75 -0.29 -1.23 -0.92 2021 -0.73 -1.29 -1.70 -1.77 -2.33 -1.89 -1.93 -0.84 -1.70 -2.69 -2.37 -2.47 2022 -2.22 -1.72 -1.63 -2.19 -2.44 -1.42 -2.44 -1.78 -1.78 -1.48 -1.83 -1.85 2023 -1.24 -1.79 -2.50 -3.13 -2.46 -2.67 -2.44 -2.02 -2.52 -1.88 -1.16 -1.20 2024 -1.48 -1.33 -1.27 -1.99 -3.01 -2.93 -2.62 -2.37 -3.10 -3.24 -2.58 -1.57 2025 -0.97 -1.20 -0.81 -1.07 -1.84 -2.62 -3.83 -2.54 -1.71 -1.82 -1.02 -0.39 2026 -0.87 -0.79 -1.18 -1.28 -1.64 -1.32 -1.29 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat This one is the one that site uses.

There seem to be 2 different sites for the PDO. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat This one shows -1.29 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat This one labels it as -2.03

We saw some fantastic forecasts for July. Scotty Lightning gaining 710 points and was able to move up a slot but really close in on the large grouping we have. BKViking also had another strong forecast for July and managed to move from 4th to 2nd, while DonSutherland1 lost some ground on his strong lead but still holding the first place spot. All bold slots are those with the highest value in that category. As well as updated numbers for GaWx and StormchaserChuck1 on the side had they been involved every month. Remember we are starting to get into volatile season again so be prepared for some potentially strong movements and shifting of spots as we go into the Super Nino winter. I did not include the late penalties this go around as many would not have seen a significant change in total points taken off. I will do my best to send a reminder about 24 hours in advance so as to not have these penalties arise. I will add the Conus departures when it updates for me.

Forgive me on the wrong coloration for the highest and lowest values in each section, didn't even realize it until I went to do scoring today. Here is the updated with the anomalies for each region. Looks the surprises again were NYC and BOS with much cooler anomalies than many thought as well as SEA with a much cooler temp anomaly than expected.

I would like to add more context I guess, it is nice to see some actual recurves still taking place even in a weakened state of a storm the energy injection is still important. I do wonder though if this means yet again an overall weaker Aleutian low potential for winter, time will tell of course.

Now it will be interesting to see what happens from here. Looking back at 1997-98 we see there was a double peak for 180-100W OHC. 2015 we also saw this and 2023 again both years did have overall less OHC than 97 and this current year but both had a double peak, 1982 did not just had one continuous upward movement. My own thoughts would suggest maybe a September peak in OHC then a quick decline as we head into winter. The only problem with this is the lack of - anomalies in the WPAC subsurface we have yet to really see develop compared to other years with a similar temp profile. So as 180-100W may die out the overall 130E-80W and even just 160E-80W still stay relatively warm with those stronger negative anomalies not showing up leading to a more basin wide setup as we get to winter. Just thoughts floating around as we typically see the Nino events die west to east from an OHC stand point. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt YR MON 130E-80W 160E-80W 180W-100W 1997 1 .54 .49 .56 1997 2 .84 .85 1.00 1997 3 1.09 1.26 1.17 1997 4 1.49 1.87 2.17 1997 5 1.38 1.82 2.01 1997 6 1.55 2.01 2.25 1997 7 1.34 1.77 1.83 1997 8 1.07 1.50 1.79 1997 9 1.25 1.85 2.38 1997 10 1.35 2.05 2.56 1997 11 1.19 1.94 2.30 1997 12 .56 1.15 1.02 1998 1 -.24 .16 .00 1998 2 -.66 -.35 -.38 It is like if 1997 and 2015 had a baby. Shame we are not getting the western edge of TAO as those buoys are being worked on.

@dmillz25 @donsutherland1 @Rjay Just a reminder

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +1.2 +1 +.8 +.7 -.3 +.7 +1.6 +1.6 +1.7

Yea this one will be fascinating to watch unfold. The atmospheric pattern still resembles that of a La Nina/ -PDO mode in the northern hemisphere for sure. Even with the tropical activity in the WPAC this year (which is great to see) we haven't seen many recurving typhoons sinlaku was the closest to still being a typhoon while recurving. Most of the storms have still been tracking west which doesn't bode well for the PDO to flip, maybe we see that change as we get into fall.

I truly would laugh so hard if we end up getting a solid winter out of this event just so I can stop seeing the repetitive posts on here.

Truly a great retention year all things considered. Low starting point was unfortunately the worst thing to happen. I do however worry as we go into spring/summer of next year after the heat release from this ENSO event unfolds but will have to wait and see how things evolve.

Sorry yes please post your anomalies for August below do so before 6z (2am eastern time) August 1st. So far Don S. still holds a solid lead but we are getting into the time of year where things will start to be a bit more chaotic and forecast moves can happen quick.

Unfortunately starting from a record low in winter will have this happen. The area of 80N and even close to 70N has been near normal or below normal temp wise most of the summer thus far. This is what you want to see in a good retention year but again starting point always matters. If this holds into August we should continue to slide above that 2012 number and get more inline with recent years probably 6-8th lowest roughly. Im honestly surprised more so we didn't take a massive hit this year but presume next year will likely start another leg down. Fingers are crossed it doesn't.

Here some max temp so far DCA: 103 (7/4) may be challenged tomorrow? NYC: 100 (7/2) BOS: 101 (7/2) ORD: 95 (7/1 & 2) ATL: 98 (7/2) IAH: 97 (6/29) DEN: 97 (several days thus far) PHX: 113 (several days) SEA: 91(6/15)

We have had this since about March around here going from 80-85 then accumulating snow the next then back to the low 80s. I would say that is more of a fall feel for this area but here nor there it has been very much back and forth. Setting some record cold lows and highs within the same month. Only thing I have noticed that we are in an increasing el nino state is the lack of tropical activity and the slightest of increase in rainfall over the last 2 months around here. This will ultimately be fun to see what happens with this next subsurface feature. Again that slight distorted look we see in the thermocline is an artifact of the -PDO state still holding. Losing its grip compared to 3 years ago during the last Nino event but still present for now.

The difference in overall depth of the warm anomalies looks to be an artifact of the -PDO still being around. During the 2023-24 Nino this was centered around 130-140W. We also are lacking a significant negative anomaly region developing near the Dateline. I gotta ask the question though are we seeing Nino take on a new form with SSTs the way they are globally?

Im not going to play catch up since I have last been on here but here is TAO from May through July 4th, I'll be taking out May next update around mid month.

If anyone finds discrepancies in the numbers please let me know. For the deductions for June I picked 7 stations to knock down 1 point and 6 stations for RJay.

Im honestly debating on the late entries for this month (July) as it stands these are the forecasts and the what coinciding late entry percentages look like. Ill maul it over and if see if anyone else wants to chime in about it. Ill see if I can also do a quick update for max temps and where they stand thus far in a week or so.