so_whats_happening

Harrisburg is all snow. York should be close to if not all snow. Lancaster needs just a bit until the heavier precip gets in but should go all snow.

R/S line really pushing south now as the heavier precip moves in. This was about a half hour ago too

Wow I was certainly expecting it to hold steady but that is much weaker.

By far the best forecast hands down.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +1.4 +1.5 +1.8 +5 -.5 -1 +1.9 -1.3 +2 Going to a go a little more extreme than I typically do in a few locations and see how it fairs.

What I do find interesting here and this was just a quick look but something seems off. The OISST charts from cyclonic wx don't quite match up with the weekly numbers shown from this site. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for It is very possible I have it labeled wrong but I'm pretty certain that this is the site for OISST weekly values. You can see from the graph which was much higher than weekly readouts would suggest. (3rd column is 3.4) From cyclonicwx it should be around 2.1 as a weekly value for the time period ending on January 3rd. Is it possible the graphs are reading it a bit too high compared to what the data prints out? Anyway just wanted to throw it out there if we take the 4 weeks thus far (ill even include the end of December (January 3rd number) because well it was warm before and no drastic changes occurred during that time. Also an estimate on the last week ending on the 31st of about 1.7. 1.9+1.9+1.7+1.7+1.7=8.9/5= 1.78 (rough estimate for the monthly value) and assuming the relationship still holds true between the two should get us to 1.983333 (2.02+2.07+~1.86) for NDJ so rounding would take it to officially a 2 per the graph we use. Again all very rough estimates but I am curious what you think the reasoning is for the lower value on the weekly versus the chart. If that is the case the last week comes in colder than I thought even with the quick spike.

It looks like we should see a leveling off in region 3 coming up toward the end of the month and maybe even a rise again in 1+2 as the last little bit of warmth moves east. Subsurface cooling quite drastically this month really hope we don't push right back into Nina conditions by summer, hopefully can get a neutral year to show up.

We may set the record here unless we have some large negative values coming up, maybe the last day of the month can offer a large negative spike?

Not really but it also wouldnt be at that it would be flirting with 1.94-1.96 range and rounding would take it there. There actually isnt an official source that desiginates these thresholds like there is for EP and CP events, just folks trying to classify it against other ENSO events. Pretty sure CPC and BOM only mention weak, moderate, strong events which each threshold seems to be .5-1, 1-1.5, 1.5+ respectively. This has not acted like your canonical super enso event ( honestly i even question if there is a typical super nino event as we only have like 3-4 to go off of), strong may not even represent it properly. All ill say is it is nice to be above average on precip again. Sitting at about 9-10" of snow on the year so we are doing wildly better than the last 2 winters with still a month left. Just really hope we dont go into mid march with this but...

There were a few days mixed in there with some buoy issues but yo get the idea.

already looking like it is along the PA/MD border. Just north of DC to just south of Harrisburg keep an eye out for the next couple hours.

We will probably verify a little lower but yea kinda surprised myself it managed to get this high great snow growth with temps aloft near perfect.

It looks like ratios are sitting between 15 and 20:1 right now.

Lol second shift this week dealing with this, not what I wanna be doing right now. Can kinda see where the northern extent is setting up already. Should manage 2-4" still up that way thinking 3-5" back at home in Lanc.

Down here at BWI until my shift ends have about 1.5" so far back and forth between moderate to heavy snow.

OISST dip in 3.4 to about 1.68 area is the first time since just before Halloween. With Trades supposed to be rather strong for the next week and half I would expect these number to continue to fall to about 1.5 ish area before we do some leveling out at the end of the month. Region 3 also starting to take a hit as this has held rather well thus far. If we do indeed fall that low into 3.4 for the last 2 weeks of the month we probably end up again at about 1.9 ONI for NDJ. SOI should start to relax a bit coming up here and may even go negative briefly but if somehow the January mean ends up positive I'd have to look but I don't think that has happened, especially with where the Nino is standing. This -PDO pattern means business.

SOI going a little crazy right now both regions 3.4 and 4 are taking a tumble as well. Latest OISST Daily at 1.8 for 3.4 and 1.27 in 4 from about 1.6C area just two days ago. From looking at TAO the area from 140W to about 170E in the subsurface has cooled down a bit over the last week. It looks like we may have some more buoy data issues with TAO coming up giving it a funky look. Weekly OISST numbers for Jan 3rd and the 10th both sitting at 1.9 so we need those to stay around those levels for another weekly if that 1.91 ERSST as GaWx pointed out to get super ONI status.

Anyway can we keep the talk of long range forecasting out of an ENSO thread that seems explicitly due to MJO progression. Several times it has been brought up leading into winter that if the El Nino is in control the MJO should be virtually non existent. Im pretty sure there is another thread about it the SSW talk borders even being into another thread as well but ORH said he was fine with it. If he is also fine with this by all means.

yea someone got under your skin. Boston hit 60 saturday...

My dude where were you not 3 days ago when we had back to back cutters and pushed mid to upper 50s for a day each time. Why all the sudden now is this being talked about? Feel like someone got under your skin.

We shall see it is a rather quick pass showing up through 4-6 so Im not so sure we see more than a day or two spike close to those levels with storm action which isn't saying much because we had that not a week ago with the last 2 storms that tracked into the lakes. Ill stick with the mid to upper 40s call for now ahead of a cold front idea unless something drastically changes. Yea sorry it has been a bit of a busy weekend but yes this is what I was referencing @40/70 Benchmark it is not 100% but probably the closest I have seen someone forecast this thus far. Lets see if January can still hold 1.9. Either way it was a solid forecast for back in September. Also I feel the same way Griteater I have been back and forth in thinking it actually would get to this level. I still do feel this falls just short of super status though but again I don't think threshold really matters at this point just for record keeping. Im not sure about that final peak you may be thinking there is no lack of trade winds, in fact trades are at strong levels right now so this should start the cooling process. There looks to be a slight weakening coming up toward the end of the month which I think will end up just being a push of the subsurface cold pool further east. Ill post TAO updates over the next few days, today's update already shows a cooler western 3.4 and 4 subsurface look and the +5 anomalies in the eastern region 3 cooling again.

I mean if you somehow think going through 4-6 will not yield a warmer pattern... especially at this amplitude of mjo. I just have to say best of luck. Torch ehhh probably not but warmer than average sure and being at the lowest point of the year in averages a +10 anomaly around here would be something like mid 40s and low 30s at night. When we start seeing mid to upper 50s even 60s regularly let me know cause then that is a straight up torch fest. I had mid 70s about 6-7 years ago for two winters in february for like 2 days. Even had thunderstorms and hail lol.

What I think will be nice from this is that we may get a final attack on the SPV coming up from this MJO movement but we are already coming up on the end of the season anyway by the time this rolls through sooo not really sure many would want this to happen if you are hoping for a warm spring.

@GaWx It is not perfect but phase 2 was about the 29th- 2nd this was the pattern for the 2nd-8th and here is phase 3 which I would expect a longer period of east or TN valley troughing before we do a quick scoot through to 3-4-5 around mid month to the 3rd week.

Quite the change in the subsurface going on. First time we have introduced a -3, it also does not seem like the central to WPAC will cool all too much in the subsurface in the next month so we may see some rather drastic changes in the EPAC coming up over the month. With trades looking at the upper echelon of values I think any further warming is not expected. The westerlies that do develop around 100-120E I think will help in pushing that cold pool eastward later in the month and by February we start tumble rather quickly in 3 and eastern 3.4 with 1+2 maybe going negative for the first time in almost a year. Of course we will have to wait and see how it progresses but just some thoughts of the progression.