so_whats_happening

Yea I feel it may just complicate things even worse than they have been. We see how the impact of reducing aerosols in the mid latitudes is going we are seeing some of the of the warmest readings in oceans and atmosphere in our recorded history. If we dropped the aerosols all together boy are we in for some heating. If we cut back on GHGs it wont be an immediate response of course but it will be better in the long run of less warming potential being placed on the system than if we continue on this path. Methane and water vapor ruling the day on the short term aspect of warming.

To compare to the previous impressive WWB event back in Feb-Mar that had the insane MJO wave with it.

Sorry been on vacation the last week. This is by far the most influence we have seen from the WWB. The trades almost reversed completely across 140-90W. Lets see if we have more in the pipeline.

I had seen these in looking around but Gensini site looked to have old data besides the CFS forecast which seemed to update. The other didn't quite match up with the tweets snowman had posted on page 27 or 28 I believe it was.

Does anyone have a site to get GWO charts or data?

DCA 101 +1.1 NYC 101 +.8 BOS 98 +.8 ORD 101 +1.8 ATL 102 +0.5 IAH 100 -0.6 DEN 101 -0.2 PHX 112 -0.6 SEA 97 +1.5 Sorry for not joining the last few months been very busy and just keep missing deadline times.

Fair point and interestingly enough those years also had a -PDO pattern that was around during an emerging El Nino. 1957 completely collapsed the PDO by May and going positive by summer. '63 had a brief period of +PDO play out toward fall and end of the year. '65 had a fairly similar approach to how '63 evolved in the PDO department late fall early winter. '72 went neutral by fall after having some low values leading up to the El Nino emerging similar to the low values this year. So the one major factor is SST configuration with lower SST's during that time globally the difference was enough to allow forcing to emerge east compared to now. Here is april forcing of those years compared to this year clearly west of those years meaning different setup. What this means going forward I guess we will find out. Just wanted to also add checking out the oddity that 1963 was showed competing lift regions globally one over Africa and another setup fairly similarly to the first VP composite. Added picture for 1963 globally for April. This probably helped with the slow start to the emerging Nino and lack of WWB consistency. Still managed moderate though when all was said and done.

I personally wish these individuals would post the reasoning graphically they tend to explain evolutions a bit better than the 200 or so word limit in several chains of messages. While he isn't wrong on this idea that the Ninos of 1957, 1963, 1965, and 1972 (all moderate to strong) developed like we see now (warm waters emerging in 1+2 early on) we also had different wind conditions leading up to the El Nino emergence. They had persistent easterlies that were around for the early part of the development across 1+2, 3, and eastern portion of 3.4 fairly similar to what we are seeing except that random batch we had in March around 1+2. This kept things at bay for a while but eventually that pattern broke and emerged as an El Nino pattern. Just take a look at placement of where Westerlies (anoms) took place during those years still close to if not right on the dateline. Once the May content comes out we can also see how that compares to pre 1982 El Ninos. Unfortunately I can not find much past 1979 for subsurface which is unfortunate, that would be nice to see if we did in fact have a subsurface look similar to this year where almost the entire equatorial pacific basin is above normal. By far the most interesting ones of the 4 years were 1963 and 1972 and how they emerged (63 moderate, 72 strong borderline super). Included the 4 years listed above for April U-Anom winds as well as 2023. Also included the May to August for 63 and 72. Maybe something to keep in mind. The other 2 seasons had consistent/persistent westerlies around the dateline.

I feel like there is an important thing that needs to get mentioned. So say we do happen to have a strong/super Nino coming up do we actually couple the atmosphere/ocean and will it respond properly to this change or do we have exceedingly warm ocean temps and an atmospheric response that resembles that of a weak or even moderate El Nino? I also feel like the twitter stuff posted is very ambiguous I mean yes it is possible to go from a 3 year La Nina event to a moderate to super Nino just like it is to go from a super to a 3 year la Nina. I mean what happens if we sit here and do go full bore super Nino status does that mean we go right back into a triple dip La Nina afterward, it would truly be unprecedented but not improbable. The issue of it is we don't have a solid long foundation that can account for such instances occurring so to say it whole heartedly can attain super levels or whether it can revert right back to Nina (not likely at all just as an example) is the biggest issue in this debate and unfortunately records don't give us much clue, especially with how things have developed thus far. This event, while having aspects of a what could be a strong Nino it has many factors still hedging against it for now. Another question would be do we see with warmer ocean temps overall longer Nino events ones that last longer than about a year timeframe, do we see multi year El Nino and La Nina becoming more of a thing? The frequency of ENSO state may sway slightly toward Nina being more often but that has yet to be realized overall we don't see the frequency of Nino events picking up but the top temperature anomaly within those events is certainly much higher but is the overall affect becoming greater? Just a lot of questions out there and this season is stumping the community. The lack of tropical activity is another concerning aspect regardless of what basin we talk about. The only way I see the hint of us getting to that strong to super category in trimonthlies is if we full on collapse the PDO pattern (essentially go neutral/positive by end of summer), it is possible but can't really see how that would happen in the next 2-3 months. This will be the month to see if these changes take hold or whether we just have slow growth, let us see if we get a solid spike this month. Attached is a 90 day SST anom animation from end of February.

I would 100% get information from the schools on their programs. Depending on whether you are getting a broad approach to meteorology or looking for something more specific (tropical, thunderstorms, winter weather, climate, etc) will help narrow down the choices. Since you are an Ohio state resident I would definitely recommend visiting the college. Email an advisor or the head of the department and they may be able to guide you in ways to set up a visit and get just a day experience in what it would be like and a tour of their facilities to know whether it is something you want to continue with or not. I personally went in state being that there are only 2 met programs within the state and multitude of earth science programs and while Earth sciences was an interest and with it being at many schools it was a nice option but it was meteorology that really grabbed my attention most and that is probably an important aspect to nail down, curriculum is relatively similar to whatever school you go to. Would recommend a year of community college to get some electives out of the way cheap (always make sure they transfer properly to wherever you choose) and to give yourself some time to make final decisions being that you are finishing your senior year? I want to say I know someone who recently graduated from Ohio University and landed a job at a NWS in TX. So there is opportunity just make the most of that opportunity when you can. Hope this helps and good luck it is a tough major remember that.

Wow at that u anom map i was waiting to see it update but did not expect to see a wide region of enhanced trades. You can tell this last episode did try to buckle the pattern though. Forecasts past 7 days have been rather rough so lets see where we go from here. Im more curious where the tropical activity will pick up this year.

Yea feel like i have been mentioning it for awhile something just felt off this year. Again who knows maybe we do see a dramatic reversal take place but as of now moderate seems likely. Had for the longest time felt weak nino but it does have a chance still of some moderate even potential strong readings if things can get going. Otherwise yea lack of wwb really hurting the chances. Id be curious with the westward propagating wwb and trades if we manage another warming potential in the 1+2 region again come mid to late june. Still early to know for surr yet. With this slight weakening of trades in the next week most things should maintain status quo but given lack of anything in the pipeline right now should continue to weaken temps as we head through june.

it sure did

Only issue I have seen just recently with Bom is the forecast of MJO. Ever since it crossed the 4/5 it has consistently shown a strong MJO wave chugging along through 6/7/8. That has yet to happen in fact as weird as it is the GFS actually hit the nail on the head with the MJO progression thus far. Meaning if Bom was right it would have really set the stage for a powerful El Nino to take hold as it would have likely eroded the trades around the dateline quite substantially as we see it now it still is struggling but not for trying to get past the dateline. We will have a brief 2-3 days here where we see some nice relaxing around the dateline before seemingly having another round of decent trades poking their head in. Many of the models that predicted a low amplitude MJO wave show it peaking around 1.5-1.9 (maybe briefly into super category but trimonthlies stay in strong category) while Bom is pushing near 2.5 if not close to the strongest warming we have seen. No doubt overall the WWB event got halted around 150E and in fact some forecasts show a westward propagating WWB with trades pushing westward so this would indicate overall VP is still over maritime region with little indication of this heading east. The interesting part about that is we saw the exact same thing happen back in February which led to a weakening of trades and thus a WWB event across the eastern Pac. This could very well happen again which would help again slowly expand the warmer waters westward into 3/3.4, ENSO 4 may be a struggle for awhile. If we can manage a nice uptick in 3.4 over the next month or so it gives confidence in a strong event otherwise still moderate may be the way to go for now. As for the PDO talk, while NE Pac has undoubtedly warmed overall the -PDO is not gone. We still have the warm tongue east of Japan and the overall coolness enveloping the the periphery. The biggest shake up to see things move around will be getting rid of that warm tongue, if we can at least start to push toward a neutral mode it stands a chance at topping near strong but otherwise again conflicting signs dont typically work out well.

Yes you can see what the lack of westerlies across the dateline region has done. The subsurface has not punched the warmth eastward allowing for large scale cool anomalies in the the IO west pacific to pop up. The development while definitely warmer has an overall 17-18 vibe still with lack of subsurface warm pool transport as we saw in other solid El Nino events. Still a weee bit early to call it a head fake though. I feel we keep kicking the can down the road in expecting a solid transition it was march when we saw the intense warm up in 1+2 and here we are almost 2 months later without a substantial switch up to warrant many in here to say above moderate status is likely. I personally still feel pushing moderate is a bit much but we shall see i think it slowly can get its way up there. Trimonthlies will be the test of course. If we dont see a solid reaction in june from this ongoing wwb i doubt much will come of it at this rate because soon enough july will hit lol.

Yea it is a shame to see but for sure it would at least throw a potential our way come winter, if it holds. Definitely would be nice to shake this up but this also has potential issues for the sea ice and the arctic across the CAA with rapid decline of snow across Canada from this. Just east of there had record warmth last year during mid to late summer.

Made this real quick just to show subsurface look for the last two Super Ninos, 1997 was just a beast! Here is the website for those interested. Goes back to 1979 https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/ocean/t-eq_tcc.html

Solid! Models are catching onto the tropical activity around 150E from my post the other day. Gotta say GFS sniffed that out pretty well seems to have a solid handle on some aspects as of right now so it will be interesting to watch the results of this. Nice MJO spike with activity abound in the SW Pacific. So it seems as though we can't seem to get a passage of a WWB event past this region, trades are just holding on tight and what seems to be a continuation is 1+2 will warm again via Kelvin wave activity and slowly spread the warmth across the region. Honestly would really like to see the trades relax more and allow a WWB through doesn't have to be that strong throughout just needs to be enough to allow a solid overall weakening and maybe even reversal? Could see some interesting forecasts if we can see that in June until then we wait. PDO is taking a solid beating, unfortunately NW Canada is on fire big time been getting smoke well aloft for the last week and a half. Starting to see the changes needed to resemble a +PDO look trying to switch things up 7 day change doing its thing.

You can see how the GFS develops a tropical system (equatorial Rossby wave) right around the area the hovmollers set it up around 150E. This brings about the idea of a nice WWB event and a spike in the MJO but many models seem to now be trending into the MJO dead idea. Here is the GFS and Euro for reference.

I feel like I keep seeing this reference to El Nino development of yester year, im not exactly sure what this references early 1900's mid 1900's? Can you post examples of such events and how they progressed other than referencing solely 82/83/. 97/98, or 15/16? All this while also coming off a 3 year La Nina event and having a rather cold PDO signal. I can't find many to reference some Im curious what these yester years are. What did MJO look like during the spring? OLR and VP data shouldn't be too hard to find. I mean even 500mb charts will do or SST anoms. Something to help give us a clue what that means because im not gathering that from tweets. It seems like we are seeing steps being taken back on the whole Super Nino idea even from these tweets. ASO of max 2C is a step down from some of the model looks of nearing 2.5C if not higher by that time. Honestly moderate seems to be the best potential as of right now and that may be stretching it basing it off of the idea we happen to get continual WWB events, it is very possible to not see tri-monthlies back to back to back above 1.5C by fall. We also need the MJO out of 4-6 and not dead.

Again just forecasts for this time period but not the right direction in fact we may start to see some cooling taking place in 1+2 and 3 from these warm temps. This may help create forcing to stay in the maritime region. This ultimately does look like it will produce a Kelvin wave that should make its way east in time. PDO region is warming but look at the warm tongue still holding on east of Japan that doesn't exactly tell me a flip in the PDO. Noticed the -EPO is really digging into the NW PAC/ western Canada the past week and to continue into the next week so this will surely help raise the PDO region. I hate to be this person but this is still not a great look for a Nino moderate still on the tables strong may be slowly slipping away if this continues, upper level winds (200mb) still show an anomalous westerly component over the tropics this helps induce a sinking motion further east in the pacific and South America area with a continuation of decent trades. Still just way too murky and nothing straight forward telling me this is going to go full El Nino just yet. Maybe this is our precursor year? Still has been a thought in my head.

Well I know we talked about this in the winter thread this past season. Maybe we can finally get the western ridging we missed so much, that should at least help filter in the cold potential. Now watch the -NAO will just disappear this year...

Very much agree with the before 1990 sentiment. We have overall been in a -PDO pattern since about 2000 briefly pushing neutral positive for 02-03, 09-10, and was already well positive for 15-16. I would argue 02-03 and 09-10 stick out for me considering the coming off of La Nina conditions and not already having a warm basin. Not to say we have similar to those years for winter but it is interesting to note those were some of the snowiest years around the area after 2000, 13-14 was another good year although we were in neutral setting (slightly cool). I wonder what the sst configuration would look like if we took out 15-16 in your last two. BTW im sure it was just a quick mistake but the last two are 14-15 not 15-16 if that is what you were going for.

The thing I would question is how is this El Nino really going to go. Near record levels of -PDO with no flip imminent, almost every portion of the tropics showing anomalous warmth with right now 1+2 showing the highest anomalous warmth. We are barely ticking things over into weak El Nino territory in 4/3.4/3 while 1+2 has remained near strong to super levels. The lack of cooling around Australia and the maritime is important to note as well as the warming up again of the Atlantic tropical waters. If you want the main focus of warming and forcing to be with the central an eastern Pacific these other factors you certainly do not want to see. It will be again interesting to watch the next month to see what happens. If the MJO wave dies into null it will be probably hard to stop the kelvin wave associated with the WWB but just how much influence will it have other than opening up the potential for a bit more warming or sustaining the East Pac El Nino signal with a slight reduction in trades. This is certainly a flavor of ENSO we have not seen in quite some time or in general has not happened. Unfortunately I wanna say global SSTs are really throwing things off. If we had this exact same setup say 40 years ago would we have had the 1+2 region pushing 2.5-3C above average? I feel it may have been a push to 1-1.5C in 1+2 and then a slow warm up across the eastern Pac which we all would have then said ok looks like maybe a weak to moderate El Nino but with again on average SSTs being almost 1-1.5C above average globally are we really going to push strong to super status? We should be taking off in the next month if we are to match AMJ of 57-58, 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16. Not many times do we have a situation like this coming off a La Nina (triple dip at that) and going straight into a strong or super Nino. Most of the time we have some neutral to weak status on either side of the ENSO spectrum before we go full bore into strong and super. Just some things to think about who knows this could really throw us for a curveball this year yet. Personally would like to wait until we get this WWB through to see how the ocean and atmosphere react.

Yea ill move my goal post of weak el nino to moderate at this point. Still not thinking super nino If this wwb works out decently we could see a peak near strong not sure we see consecutively yet to label a strong nino but regardless this will be notable to watch unfold in june and july with ssts. We may get lucky if this develops quickly and doesnt stay strong through late fall and winter. Otherwise expecting below average winter again with the random chance of getting a single large storm similar to 15-16 that would put folks near average. Crossing my fingers a more moderate approach sets up.