so_whats_happening

00z GFS brings the lemon across the islands and if circulation can hold together brings it into the eastern Gulf. Still about 5 days out from the Antilles but it may just get to TS status. There seems to be another one after that in the pipeline that may have a better atmosphere to work with if the initial lemon kind of fades around DR/ Haiti/ PR region.

Nothing seems too off from the development. It is like the little engine that could lol. I think the one surprising aspect was the March WWB event that doesn't happen very often and in such an isolated manner but each Nino/Nina will have an evolution that is unique to it. Typically we peak in Nino/Nina October or November, to peak before or after is probably more rare but does happen (early peak is probably the rarest occurrence). The longevity is another thing fun to watch, namely about the collapse of such events is always fun as some hold on while slowly cooling/warming and others in a matter of 2 months go neutral from the peak. Still like my idea from I think April/May that we peak near 1.7-1.8 trimonthly with maybe a blip of a month going up to 2.0C max (this is still a big maybe) with overall atmospheric conditions still probably in moderate Nino category. Of course we wait and see but with July probably ending around 1.1 average to get to above 2.0C would need some really pronounced Nino conditions to come about. Solid -SOI, maybe an actual WWB event that reverses more than just 1+2 and eastern 3, forcing to not be so held back, cooling of waters off Maritime continent just to name a few things. The PDO does look to finally be getting knocked down a peg so maybe by fall it will be close to neutral? We are definitely spreading the surface waters west now compared to the past month or so. Im curious what the subsurface water temps will look like in a month.

Thanks for the response.

Ninos would be disrupted. I guess people dont like MEI? If we use this as a clue we have had less impactful ninos from 83 onward (at least super nino peaks have been lower over time) even with SST temps increasing considering 2015-16 had some of the highest 3.4 numbers. We still were impacted by the classic super nino state overall so it will take time for it to really show. As for ninas im not sure it makes them stronger. The only thing i could think of would be that ninas may become more frequent over time with a WPAC warm pool constantly being around. It's a shame it only goes to 1979 but gotta use what we have i guess.

It should continue most of this week probably two decent spike or negative departures days with other days around -15 average. When it ends is still a bit out but euro cuts it off before the end of the month or at least takes it to neutral. Lets see what it can do.

1972 is definitely looking like an interesting year in comparison. If it wasn't for the cooler WPAC and inverse in the Atlantic AMO would be quite the fit for how this year is going. May I ask why you subtracted 93-94 (neutral year) maybe you meant 94-95? I have yet to find a Nino that didn't have a cool pool at the surface in the western edge of the equatorial pacific already forming. This year is cooler but not in the negative departure yet. Typically we see the subsurface cool in some of the stronger events around now but there are a few instances that it occurs August after that is extremely rare to happen.

They added recently back to 1947 for subsurface data on the archive site I use. Now we can take a look at the subsurface for the years prior to 1979! https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/ocean/t-eq_tcc.html

Thank you for clearing that up as it makes much more sense now. Didnt even notice the tiny print in the bottom left of 5 day running mean.

The Arctic seems off 2012 was the min so it should show the most anomalous not 2020. The bolded is very interesting had not thought of it in that manner and major fluctuations make sense in it being signs of a tipping point. It would be something if the Antarctic over the next 10-20 years sees similar degradation to what the Arctic had and the Arctic just does a slight recovery, not in the sense it goes back to 1970s and 80s levels, just a more inline with the levels of what could be allowed in a positive year with as much warming that has occurred (hope this makes sense). I would think maybe something like 2000s average may be the upper echelon (maybe 90s levels if we get lucky but dont think it is possible with how much warmer oceans are) before another potential tipping point is reached type of deal.

Taking sides seems rather childish. We should be discussing why certain things are happening not mocking fellow colleagues even with some crazy forecasts mention it and move on. You seem to be letting them take up head space for no real reason. Alot of this twitter stuff mentioned above seems to rely solely on the idea that we do have an MJO wave that will form. Until we actually creep out of null im no buying it. JMA has been nailing MJO forecasts so far.

SOI looks to relax going into mid month maybe featuring some slightly negative readings with Darwin still having somewhat low pressure around. After that we may have a quick negative spike (I guess depression on charts) before we rebound to near neutral numbers. The Atlantic is showing signs of waking up again after this little bit of activity in the EPAC, I really had thought we would see more activity in the EPAC considering we are in the right time of year for EPAC activity; the WPAC is dead still. The main -VP is still near Maritime region even going into SE Asia at times which does not bode well for an MJO wave in 7,8,1. LR does try to push it to the central PAC but this is still long range this wouldn't be until early August at this point.

So how often do we see the potential of a system lasting not only to Hawaii ( I feel like this is a 1 in 5 year type of thing for Hawaii) but also going even into the WPAC?

There are some rumblings of 20th-31st of July when things may get a little bit of a match to ignite some action. Of course long range but things are relaxing a bit across the Atlantic, Caribbean a bit of a different story as expected to still be a rather rough environment.

I know it is still frowned upon discussing in this thread but when do we start throwing up some flags here on the Antarctic?

This is something to keep in mind are conditions capable to have this large spike, almost doubling of current SST's come fall time? Upper ocean heat anoms (not OHC) taking a bit of a nosedive and looking at the rest of the month trades will rule over most of the basin maybe that little potential will come the last week of July, still nearly 2 weeks away though.

Yea GFS is fairly similar in the approach the Euro has but still takes about 2 weeks to get to 6 where something may pop up. By now I would assume we would want this more into 7/8/1 with the little pokes of MJO activity to help cause this positive feedback. Still have plenty of time of course and things will surely change in the next week but as of now this week or so looks rather mundane overall. Hope we do see some overall improvements and move this subsurface warmth out of just the EPAC.

Sorry but im not seeing the MJO wave showing up yet. I also really wouldn't take a forecast nearly 2+ weeks as gospel we have seen how this worked out with the last potential MJO wave/ -VP forecast from end of May for middle to later half of June. This had looked like an appreciable event that would kick things in motion once again and while we did see a minor spike in temps (~0.1) increase in 3.4 it was not enough to really warrant the solid wave that was forecasted by models at the end of May beginning of June. Now if we start to actually erode a fairly Nina like atmosphere I could agree but Hovmollers over the next week and SOI present a different picture muted warming potential and even cooling looks to take place over 3.4 maybe even 3, as we see 4 has taken a dive. There is a chance that by the end of the month for a little peak, and I mean little as of right now, into phase 6 before going null again could be from a tropical system trying to get going in the WPAC but overall things are dead. I assume this is the MJO wave in talks?

The 30 day SOI is just about near 0 when back in end of may beginning of june we had a monthly SOI near -20. There has been quite the string of positive days from the deeply negative two weeks we saw. Doesnt look to be a big change to that coming up here either. July not looking like a stellar month.

Appreciate it. For some reason HM was not clicking that was anthony.

HM is henry marguisity? Probably butchered the last name. Anyway hope he moved away from his hype train years ago with the constant big daddy talk. I enjoyed his analysis from time to time though. Never saw him as more than a synoptic/mesoscale guy for east and mid atlantic.

Same areas as mentioned still will be under the potential of warming coming up but models seemed to have backed off much appreciable warming potential which makes sense based off the lack of an MJO impulse. Should lead to a slow incline as we move into July as of now. Speaking of MJO should still be wondering around null for a bit may try to poke out in 2-4 for a brief moment.

We should see a nice spike coming up here in the beginning of July. With lack of MJO im curious what the full effects will be. Thing is the weakening in trades is a bit further east than the last time so maybe a more pronounced warming in 1+2, 3, and maybe getting a bump in 3.4 at least in the most eastern portion.

Again to my point above it is not a perfect evolution and honestly seeing things happen 1:1 would be incredible to witness at some point (im sure at one time things of similar evolution have happened). Here is the 2009 evolution again anomalies are off but it has a similar look thus far with warming and the extension of the warm tongue staying out west for quite some time until fall and winter. Maybe we see a similar idea and maybe this is why some models are showing a crazy peak? Time will tell of course.

Feel the lack of subsurface cooling in the WPAC is really playing a role in keeping a lid on things combined with a still prominent -PDO pattern (this does look to be weakening over time now). Here is CPC May to mid June subsurface again the EPAC is now more anomalous than the now near CPAC warm anomalies in the subsurface. Again not say we cant see a rather decent reversal in the WPAC but to what extent and when does this occur? Most El Nino events that I have access to (until 1979 for subsurface) show we already would have had a negative anomaly in the WPAC by now. 2009 subsurface had this in some similar evolution, this year albeit is definitely stronger anomaly wise but the evolution is rather interesting to follow.

Evolution of course will never be the same but we can get some clues from past instances to maybe help out with future forecasts. This is a gif of 1997 subsurface evolution and 2023 so far, definitely have shown a longer gif before of the 97, 15, and 23 (so far) evolutions before. You can see yes there are similarities the warmth extending from WPAC to EPAC but the biggest difference and curious how this plays out, the warm pool not being nearly as strong as 97 comparing WPAC to EPAC gives me pause at what this outcome could actually be. In 1997 we saw the subsurface have warmer anomalies than the eastern portion before the whole thing went full tilt and caused what we know. This go around the EPAC warm pool is warmer than the subsurface waters now coming from the WPAC. I wonder if this will play a role in less umphh behind it as it does eventually push east? We also still are not developing the classic cool/cold anomalies in the subsurface we have seen with numerous El Ninos of past. I wonder is it possible we have pushed the heating potential limit and now we start to see the move westward of surface temps as we weaken trades in 3.4 which will continue to warm, sort of like a slow bleed as we head toward Fall. We have about 2 weeks until we get to see the results of the June 2023 subsurface. Going forward the trade wind halt and even slight reversal should provide another bounce up come mid July latest. What happens after that may be another fun one to watch barring this forecast for reversal is correct.