so_whats_happening

Lol yea tailing off a super nino, seems fairly typical in that sense. The last time a similiarish situation occurred was back in 2007-08/ 08-09 coming off a weak nino to a multi la nina of similar intensity. So will be interesting if we fall back into or maintain la nina status with this. Not many times do we see a setup like that. It was looking good for an el nino to fire up but subsurface is fading hard.

Thats a good thing to hear in this day and age with the current conditions of the ice. What's interesting to watch with even the fractured mess that is the ice up there we have managed an average of last decades ice (2010s extent and sea ice area). I feel like while we have been use to seeing how the Arctic can handle large volumes of ice 4m+ thick volumes, this new norm of ~2m thick ice across the arctic is interesting to see how it goes through time. How the Arctic is trying to balance itself out while not being able to release heat properly. I worry about the looming idea of a rather strong nino to come about. Wonder if we can get the AO to work properly in peak seasons to maybe help the situation better with releasing heat and keeping it out. Time will tell of course.

DCA 99 NYC 96 BOS 98 ORD 99 BIS 108 ATL 101 IAH 99 DEN 104 PHX 116 SEA 94

DCA: +1.1 NYC: +1.9 BOS: +2.3 ORD: +2.4 ATL: +0.4 IAH: 0.0 DEN: +0.7 PHX: +1.0 SEA: +1.4

DCA +1.8 NYC. +1.1 BOS. +0.7 ORD. +1.2 ATL. +2.1 IAH. +1.8 DEN. +1.9 PHX +2.3 SEA +0.4

Wow close month this go around

Someone had posted this in another thread to give you perspective on how things have changed and will once we go to the new 30 year climo.

Little update I believe we measured the greenland high around 1065mb give or take a few mbs just south over the ocean had a slp of 1040s so seems reasonable with the potential of higher over the ice sheet. Always hard to know with a large portion of that region being 10-13k feet above sea level, so you know extrapolation. Still have quite the fram export event taking place as the low moves into the Central Arctic regions. Looks as though there may be a day or two of slowing down on export but man it looks like it picks right back up in mid to long range. Really hope this is not a sign of a major ice depletion situation. With such strong export Ice is reaching Iceland, this happens from time to time but I dont recall it being the case this time of year. Again maybe the one nice thing is we aren't exporting some of the multi year ice that is left, what little there still is. Very worrisome of what may come this summer.

Thats pretty crazy to me. I dont think I have seen pressures higher than maybe mid 1060's mb around Greenland so if even the 1070-1080mb range verifies this may very well be a record, unfortunately my search has come up empty on the highest pressure reading from a station on Greenland's ice sheet unless others may know. I just noticed the map I posted of ice thickness ended at the last day of February so here is hycoms depiction of the last 30 days fairly similar to AMSR where the highest values are but there are some differences that stick out such along the CAA and siberian sea region so it will be interesting to see which is closest to reality. Still both show issues on the Atlantic front to the north pole so they both seem to agree at least on that front. I guess the one positive, if you really wanna call it that, is the lack of multi year thick ice what is left of it isn't being exported into the Atlantic to melt off. Ill have to see if I can find a multi year ice gif to show where we have the remaining portions of it and what is rather new thin ice.

So this is interesting. Fram Strait export picking up with such an anomalous high pressure system with a countering LP just east. Yes 1089mb high forecasted over Greenland in a little over 3 days. We have had such large high pressure systems this year, earlier around Mongolia if I remember correctly back in December I dont believe broke the record there but was awfully close. Impressive stuff this year. I worry about the ice on the Atlantic front to near the north pole especially this year with how low thickness values are to the norm. Edit it actually beat the world record https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/world-record-high-air-pressure-mongolia-b1780381.html

DCA: +0.8 NYC +0.5 BOS: 0 ORD: +1.8 ATL: +1.6 IAH: +2.1 DEN: +2.2 PHX: +2.8 SEA: +0.8

Is there a specific reason you are showing these?

Are we switching to 1991-2020 averages and then retroactively changing past months when it comes out (whenever it fully is done being implemented) or finishing the year with our 1981-2010 baseline?

wooof competely missed that deadline lol DCA: +3.1 NYC +2.3 BOS: +1.8 ORD: +2.6 ATL: +3.2 IAH: +3.4 DEN: +1.8 PHX: +2.2 SEA: -0.5

DCA +1.6 NYC +1.2 BOS +1.0 ORD -1.0 ATL +1.4 IAH +1.8 DEN +1.4 PHX +1.2 SEA +1.8

I like the enthusiasm but if im struggling to get more than flakes down here I dont see how this would push much more north the only thing we are hoping for is a close to the coast start up but that floods a lot of areas along the coast with warmth until it bombs and flips it for locals. Track has been fairly solid with this one for the past ~2 days

Welcome to the weather we deal with all the time down this way. I have gotten use to it regardless whether we get snow or not I still like to talk about these patterns. Feel it might be a situation that you may be expecting something more then should be perceived. I like coming in here to see what the talk is and get some met obs since my area lacks a little of that. I try not to hold onto them much when I see a pattern that can be exciting Id rather track the systems then get blasted with snow cause then I have to clean it up and there isnt much place to put snows in the city, but dont get me wrong snow is fun!

I know its a hop, skip, jump down to my area but working at KBWI we had 57 on the second, that was a really warm day felt like a taste of spring. Yesterday hit a high that just scraped 50 but most have been low to mid 40's about 2-3 degrees above average. The nighttime lows though... last 2 days have been the closest to average but most have been mid 30's even some upper 30's that is almost 10-12 degrees (if not more on some days) above average.

The nighttime lows are whats killing it. Even down this way the daily highs really haven't been that warm but the overnight lows which would normally be in the low 20's even some teens just north of me are sitting in the low 30's, with that stretch of clouds at the beginning we had a 5 degree swing with lows in the mid 30's that roasts averages.

They also have such a better cold resource than we do unfortunately.

Lol wayyy too much but hey it may happen again one of these years. Thats going to be one rough melting season over there.

Wow! I love snow and all but man waste high snow ill leave to them. 2008-09 winter down here was nuts! It looked like that in many places and I was good on not having snow for quite some time. Seems like I got my wish for the most part lol To give reference to this video in the explanation section they say 10 feet of snow on the ground in Hijiori and in Takada they received 6 feet of snow in 72 hours. Now im very unfamiliar with Japan but this is wild to hear.

I like the setup potential but am really curious as well how this sets up. I would almost argue it may have more of a positive tilt to it with the extended ridging potential with such warm SSTs in the Atlantic. I wouldnt call it a progressive at all, just really hope suppression doesnt become a thing, but overall just really interested what this setup will yield. Great write up though! Whatever is coming sure does look fun though.

That is a huge worry of mine as well but great write up. The possibilities with this could very interesting! Excited to see how the next 2 weeks unfolds.

DCA: +2.6 NYC +4.3 BOS: +5.1 ORD: +2.5 ATL: +.9 IAH: -0.8 DEN: +0.6 PHX: -0.5 SEA: -0.8