so_whats_happening

I like the enthusiasm but if im struggling to get more than flakes down here I dont see how this would push much more north the only thing we are hoping for is a close to the coast start up but that floods a lot of areas along the coast with warmth until it bombs and flips it for locals. Track has been fairly solid with this one for the past ~2 days

Welcome to the weather we deal with all the time down this way. I have gotten use to it regardless whether we get snow or not I still like to talk about these patterns. Feel it might be a situation that you may be expecting something more then should be perceived. I like coming in here to see what the talk is and get some met obs since my area lacks a little of that. I try not to hold onto them much when I see a pattern that can be exciting Id rather track the systems then get blasted with snow cause then I have to clean it up and there isnt much place to put snows in the city, but dont get me wrong snow is fun!

I know its a hop, skip, jump down to my area but working at KBWI we had 57 on the second, that was a really warm day felt like a taste of spring. Yesterday hit a high that just scraped 50 but most have been low to mid 40's about 2-3 degrees above average. The nighttime lows though... last 2 days have been the closest to average but most have been mid 30's even some upper 30's that is almost 10-12 degrees (if not more on some days) above average.

The nighttime lows are whats killing it. Even down this way the daily highs really haven't been that warm but the overnight lows which would normally be in the low 20's even some teens just north of me are sitting in the low 30's, with that stretch of clouds at the beginning we had a 5 degree swing with lows in the mid 30's that roasts averages.

They also have such a better cold resource than we do unfortunately.

Lol wayyy too much but hey it may happen again one of these years. Thats going to be one rough melting season over there.

Wow! I love snow and all but man waste high snow ill leave to them. 2008-09 winter down here was nuts! It looked like that in many places and I was good on not having snow for quite some time. Seems like I got my wish for the most part lol To give reference to this video in the explanation section they say 10 feet of snow on the ground in Hijiori and in Takada they received 6 feet of snow in 72 hours. Now im very unfamiliar with Japan but this is wild to hear.

I like the setup potential but am really curious as well how this sets up. I would almost argue it may have more of a positive tilt to it with the extended ridging potential with such warm SSTs in the Atlantic. I wouldnt call it a progressive at all, just really hope suppression doesnt become a thing, but overall just really interested what this setup will yield. Great write up though! Whatever is coming sure does look fun though.

That is a huge worry of mine as well but great write up. The possibilities with this could very interesting! Excited to see how the next 2 weeks unfolds.

DCA: +2.6 NYC +4.3 BOS: +5.1 ORD: +2.5 ATL: +.9 IAH: -0.8 DEN: +0.6 PHX: -0.5 SEA: -0.8

Lancaster:10.4 Harrisburg: 18.7 Williamsport: 19.3 Tamaqua: 20.6 Clearfield: 13.3 State College: 21.4 York: 15.3 Gettysburg: 16.9 Carlisle:20.6 Gonna throw Reading for shiggles 16.1

Current Obs of KBWI: Quite windy over here right now having 13 knots gusts to 20knots out of the ENE Temp 32/19 Was chatting with a met from OPC and we both were in agreement this is the beginning portion of the arctic air. Would really like to see that dew point drop to the low teens say 12-13F to show the depth of the cold pool. Line sits around AVP/Allentown/ to just south of NYC with that nose of arctic air. Low temps and matching low dew points, single digits. Lets have some fun nowcasting today can't wait to just see how it all unfolds regardless of what I get back at home in the Lancaster area.

I would like to take a better look at the skew T's for this but wanna wait until maybe 00z tonight to see if everything is going to hold. So far the 12z runs have held steady and come more in line with each other.

If I still worked there I could tell you. I actually was supposed to work that shift but called my boss to tell him that morning there was already 5" of snow on the ground lol. Next day couldnt go in either because they couldnt plow the streets. Took them 2 days to get the city back to normal, lancaster that is and they got more NW of us. I would be impressed if we see more than 12:1 during the height of the storm for areas around harrisburg. Most should see the average 10:1 and then maybe getting better as the colder air continues to filter in. I say maybe 14:1 on the outskirts to help with totals otherwise more than that is not impossible but probably unlikely.

Hey thats awesome, I went to Millersville as well for my Met degree. During my time there was one student who had gone into minoring in Space weather, Mike something. I do not unfortunately know where his path has taken him other than he went onto graduate school to broaden his understanding of space weather; I believe he was in talks with the folks out in boulder, CO during the one space weather outings the class had taken. Yea study hard try to get into internship opportunities or research excursions to help give you a foot into something you may want to do. DeCaria was a tough one to deal with in thermodynamics but he usually does what he can to work with you. Sikora was my advisor and an awesome forecasting teacher he had helped me land a job coming out of school, not exactly where I was hoping but it essentially helped me get a foot in the door and meet new people that could help me in the long run. Stay strong push through and have fun with it was truly some good times going to Millersville.

oh my its been sooo long since I have come to this. Im hoping to set my sights on rejoining come the new year!

Yes Millersville is ever expanding their programs now introducing emergency planning and I believe a few others are in prospects down the road. I would go with your gut. Meteorology is a tough field to get into but dont let that take you down. Network yourself study hard to understand the content and if it is something you truly love to do you will not regret it. As for when you graduate start looking into internships Junior year make yourself known in many of the businesses (in private sector and government) go to conventions (AMS is great) get as much experience as you in different aspects of meteorology without running yourself crazy, again the material can be challenging at times. I personally was unsure what the field would look like my senior year I often looked around at different job prospects, many of which have been in the broadcasting portion of meteorology, which if that is what your interest is in there are quite a few openings. I myself wanted to do forecasting and more along the research/behind the scenes type of job but in order for me to do that in mainly the government I needed to go for masters which is in the near future just not the right time right now for me. The private sector is great but the openings arent quite as open and sometimes can be rigorous, went for an accuweather position did the whole interview out of 50 or so candidates 6 were chosen to come to the HQ to do an interview and get to know them took tests, did interviews, wrote out discussions and of the 6 two were chosen from different schools all around the country. Unfortunately the downside of first time being there was the unsure what to expect and found out after the process the pay rate which is comparable I feel to many other private sector forecasting companies for starting just ended up not working out in my favor but I didnt let that get me down. I spoke with my advisor and he guided me into the job I currently have which is working for the FAA as a weather observer. Could not thank him enough and even though it is not forecasting it gives me the freedom to do some research myself and better fine tune my forecasting skills in different locals of the country. Forecasting will still be a passion of mine as well as storm chasing but this is a more practical thing for me at this point until I am done with a masters degree to better make myself standout in the crowds of folks that go into the application process. It is no guarantee of course, but I love learning more and more about the field and will continue advancing my knowledge whether at this job or the next. Hope this helps

No worries always wonders we arent fully sure of yet in this changing climate. Cool stuff to try and get an idea for in the future with such fairly drastic patterns changing and locking in for time periods up there. And thanks for the info on AMO ill have to go back and check things out then but that is a concern even with the change that things might have already changed enough to counteract that -AMO phase.

I feel it was probably already mentioned but what may be the reasoning of the prolonged low pressure over the CAB and into Canada/Greenland area? I think I had seen the idea of the late SSW being a possible reason. It is interesting to see of course and does this mean that this upcoming winter season may feature something different than we have seen in recent years? Not necessarily recovery by any means but less harsh conditions then we have seen. Also with the possibility of AMO flipping or showing signs it may what impact will this have in ice conditions particularly on the Atlantic side. Thanks for any comments trying to get better at understanding what is occurring up in Arctic

Happen to have a loop and know what time of day it was? Most likely either a dying thunderstorm that went splat and created the outflow that stirred up bugs and other animals (birds, bats,etc) or it could have been the end of daytime scenario with similar animals and bugs that happened to get caught in concentration. Hard to tell though without a loop.

could always give meted a try. https://www.meted.ucar.edu/ Sign up for free and start taking whatever might peak your interest. As for starting from the beginning im sure you can find a PDF of something out there. Meteorology Today is a good book for basics.

Well it did hit lowest extent maximum in the middle of winter, from recorded data, so that is enough in itself let alone the still distinct lowering of ice volume is still quite noticeable. Recently it has been about on par with refreeze nothing too crazy from what I have seen thus far so, rather uneventful but hey thats a good thing so far we will see how it plays out in about a month cause things started weird in mid november.

We need those warmer subsurface waters to calm that are being pumped into Arctic or massive release of heat from those waters, which seems unlikely more of chipping away process, as well. System cant sustain something if the region it is at has to work with has also been on average 1-2C warmer.

Gotcha thanks for the little tidbit on the interactive graph and yea i have frequented that forum quite a bit to get an idea and has immensely helped.

Where do you get your area data from? and im guessing the 4.61 was from today? because last i saw it was 4.636 but yes Jaxa is hovering still right around that 4.48-4.5 region so yes that will have to be monitored. Thanks for the thoughts still trying to understand all about the arctic and its influences among many other things.