so_whats_happening

Possibly but definitely feel November is now a better fit overall, for now. Btw here are those two monthlies from TAO and the most recent (4th should update later but not much should have changed) I do wish this showed further west and east though would like to see how the subsurface is reacting in those areas as well.

Yea it looks as though 1+2 has peaked and we may be near peak of 3 the next few weeks (end of month should really let us know) should indicate whether or not this is true. When i get a chance ill post but i have july to august monthlies for tao subsurface and you can see quite the change and septembers will be no different. Wish i had may and june but didnt even think about saving them.

Idalia barely made a scratch unfortunately but nice to see some churning up out there. It will be fun to see how quickly that recovers coming up here. I will say I do not like the prospects of troughing being centered across the upper midwest/lakes region. Too far west to keep us from potential issues and with ridging into eastern Canada/ NW Atlantic definitely need to watch this system.

So this shows most of 3/ 3.4/ 4 eastern edge of 3 is cut off a bit on the right side as it is from 90W-150W, 3.4 is from 120W-170W, and 4 is from 150W-160E If we had a month by month play from May to now Im sure we would see a slow progression westward of the anomalies. It unfortunately cuts off 1+2 which I get cause it changes a lot but would be nice to see and also the most western portion of the Pacific but luckily CPC sort of broad brushes those regions for us. Trades kick in and tend to cap off waters and much of the warming but what I believe they also do is help with pushing the warmest portion further west with time. This progression is definitely interesting to watch.

Quite the change in the almost 10 day period.

That would be pretty crazy if that happened. We will just have to watch how this goes in September a lot is up in the air still (unfortunately) how this all shakes out.

Yea models are having a hard time resolving MJO and amplitude. They seem to want this to move a little quicker than it actually is so we may be in transition time for seasons and the northern hemisphere to start kicking into gear? I have not been impressed at all with any BOMM MJO forecast hard pass on any of those outputs. JMA/ GFS/ Euro have been doing fairly well the GFS definitely struggles with amplitude though. Gotta wait until we actually see activity form to really know where the movement goes. As long as we stay in null all basins are essentially open for activity tropical wise. Let us see if we get something of low amplitude peak in 3 coming up here or just stay in null as we circle around trying to find an opening.

Fair point but yea the bar is pretty low down this way I mean honestly if it were to happen again with no snow whatever just give me warm temps not the 36 and rain lol too dreary for me. Personally myself would be happy with a nice foot snowstorm and call it a season. Also agree on the RMM plots they tend to miss out on what exactly the results could be was quite an uptick the last go about with a low amplitude wave shown on the plots. It very well could skip 4-5, models definitely showing that possibility so a push to low amplitude 3 and slide over to 6-7 is possible toward mid to late month period. I wonder if this would drag the last of the warmth from a solid wave what happens next is of course the big question. That look would seemingly be a fairly healthy spike and could serve as really strong wave. Of course always be taking caution for long range outlooks as this has been shown several times before and retreats west in time and weakens. Who knows maybe this time is different with the atmosphere a little more inline to Nino. Should be fun to watch this evolution definitely a different one from at least a record stand point.

Like the way you presented the thought. Was originally going with high end moderate 1.3-1.4 by October (spring thoughts) but barring some rather drastic shift that is realistically out of the possibilities. Moved to 1.7 with October peak but now going toward a November peak with how slow things seem to be progressing. If we are using ERSST that is, seems like CDAS is about .2C cooler while OISST is about .1C warmer than ERSST. October: 1.6 November 1.9 December: 1.7 January: 1.6 There is the possibility of November going to 2 which would bump up the trimonthly to 1.8 averaged around OND.

Can definitely put this to the test coming up. Euro mid to long range is trying to throw a pretty nice +PNA. Of course leaves us in the East potentially vulnerable but that is another story. Latest PDO values should be coming out soon but with the warm pool still ever present around Japan I doubt we see much warming of the values take hold. At the very least it is nice to see storms not going down the west coast that is a good sign!

Of course what I find interesting is the cooling that has taken place in both surface and subsurface in the WPAC for the last 3 weeks. That last bout of warming did indeed create quite the punch while cooling things further west. May have one more solid punch before we start the slow reversal as the waters will start to have cooled too much to allow further subsurface warming no more warm pool out west means no more fueling the El Nino. May end up being a November peak instead of October as originally thought given the way the waves have been setting up. If we do in fact have this MJO impulse come EOM to early October it would lead to warming through much of the 1st and 2nd weeks of October then we will probably have a much better gauge for what subsurface should look like and if it does actually cool down enough we have to see how we end this one most were undercut with cold anomalies and left a warm pool further west while surface cooled dramatically in the EPAC. I honestly forget what page I had it written down but we seem to have smaller impacts in between some of the bigger waves that have come through. We seem to still be riding the 3 month big wave situation end of February to early March, end of May to early June, and now middle to end of August. This last one picked up a little quicker as we are very much out of the La Nina hangover and seemed to have sped things up a bit. Given this look I would say the next large wave impact would be actually closer to the end of October and honestly it is pure speculation at this point but so far the pattern hasn't changed all that much. Maybe a little impulse in between the bigger one toward the end of October? We seemed to have those with the past bigger warmings. Thinking of those smaller ones to help maintain the Nino temp levels and not allow too much cooling in between. Sorry for the long post.

Looks like CPC site finally updated after 2-3 weeks without an update. Here is the subsurface animation

I am curious at when it peaks may be a split difference of october to december. Could see november as that is not too unusual. More so if we are to attain these higher number i would much rather like to see some continual activity in many aspects. Lets see how this month evolves definitely could lead us in the path of figuring things out again barring no major changes to overall progression. Im personally still leaning october maxima but we shall see how it goes. Could see an extended colling for another larger bump end of november /december to give it that bump. For late season.

As i mentioned earlier it looks to come in the latter part of the month which will start to give impacts as we close out the month. So the best bet for it is to maintain everything status quo until then. Again assuming the wave holds properly and moves into the pacific. Forecasts were too quick in bringing this into phase 3/4 as has been the case for most of the summer so far. Remember MJO progresses 30-45 days. It isnt perfect as sometimes it is quicker and sometimes it lags but we are still dealing with a really warm equatorial ocean so it is having a hard time creating a solid wave rather it just is spikes that seem to happen.

maybe it got lost in translation but can you post this paper?

More so also posting his/her own opinions and graphics to back it up would be great. I get trying to have confirmation from the twitter crowd but it really seems like he/she wants those individuals to speak for their thoughts rather then presenting their own ideas. That is not scientific in anyway and definitely lose respect from scientists in that manner, whether right or wrong. Honestly im not sure why everyone cares to be so right over something like this. Would much rather just chat about it and discuss how the evolution is rather funky. Throw around ideas to get a better understanding and leave it at that. Really weird to see people treating this like a job on what is supposed to be a chat forum. Can we not just take a breather from work stuff and enjoy a place where we all like to watch and talk weather? Anyway rant over im sure nothing will change in any aspect so...

Yea we blipped to cat 4 so everyone can say it went cat 4 instead of high end 3. Probably has about 2 hours till landfall probably will just maintain status quo at this point.

This is due to the excessively warm waters around the area of Japan and extending east. These have yet to cool otherwise we would be in a much closer neutral PDO look. As long as we don't keep re enforcing the ridge pattern out there it should slowly decline in time.

Looks like troughing is starting to have an effect. Gotta love a good ocean storm! Had beautiful structure yesterday.

I agree including michael they all had similar upbringings. The difference may come down to structure those were near or at hurricane status by the time it was crossing cuba this was still a developing tropical storm. That little bit of difference could easily mean a slightly lower upper value given very similar backgrounds.

It is worrisome though that a rather large eye could open up rather quickly this afternoon into the evening during what is usually a nice uptick in thunderstorm activity.

This is definitely a reasonable take structure doesn't seem fully stacked yet. Forward speed may be hindering it a bit since it can't get it structure setup? 3 seems to be the upper limit at this point unless we get heck of a surprise. Definitely trying its best to get organized quick though.

This is such an interesting evolution i do wonder if we even get surface cooling or if we just get a subsurface component enough to end the nino.

So you left it purposely ambiguous... mjo waves take 30-45 days to cycle plus it is emerging in the indian ocean.

Are you talking about the forecasted emergence around phase 3 next week? Cause that is going to take time and shouldnt have any impact until late september if it does become a wave that is