so_whats_happening

I could agree with that intensity may not be the issue. It may be where forcing takes place. If we look at 2010-2011 season we went to strong La Nina status but the cold pool was so far west that it actually ended up being beneficial for us in the east. That with the situation of a -NAO pattern present from the solar minimum that was around at the time. The biggest difference between than and this time frame is the east coast waters. Back then waters were warm south of Greenland and rather chilly across much of the east coast. Right now waters are just wayyy too warm across much of the eastern sea board. This promotes a ridging like pattern (normally) which in turn would drive weather systems inland with pushing of the baroclinic zone on the coast or just inland, as you stated very +NAO like regime. That would be in conjunction of - PNA pattern bearing a -PDO sticks around too. 2016-17 was an interesting one had another scenario with the coldest waters in Nino 4 similar to this year (so far) and warming as you went east. The result was a pretty barren snow land of a winter in the mid atlantic, not entirely sure about the NE though ( I would think interior did well that year with how the 500mb pattern setup). The cooling couth of Greenland seemed to help re-enforce the idea of +NAO that season. I think the biggest concerns for the upcoming winter scenario could be how extensive those warm waters are in the east. Do they reach up to around Greenland and help promote a pseudo -NAO regime at times or do we get a cooling that occurs just south of Greenland giving it +NAO regime? Also how extensive the Pacific ridge would be do we see a scenario of ridging along the west coast or is it more confined to the Aleutians? We definitely do not want ridging along the coast and a +NAO that is just a death spell (11-12). I would gladly take a 10-11 scenario of -NAO and forcing rather far west where the ridge was near the Aleutians.

There is hope for it but the fact is as we approach fall we 'normally' strengthen the ENSO state whichever it may be and with us sitting at a previous trimonthly of -1.0 already and the subsurface I have concerns. This just highlights the east coast waters well.

The waters off the east coast and up to nova scotia have just been so flippin warm over the past couple years it really is getting difficult to get true miller A patterns setup feel like the baroclinic zone has just been setting up over the coastal plain rather than offshore. Im not liking how far west based the Nina is, if I remember correctly 2011 was the last west based Nina and winter was well... Feel the eerie 2011 vibes right now with SST configuration in the tropical pacific. See how it plays out.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +1 +1.2 +1.4 +1.4 +0.9 +2.1 +2.2 +1.1 +1.6 Thanks Roger

When you state anti logs this means (last image as an example) the country as a whole would be slightly cooler than average for DJF with an emphasis of northern rockies and front range to be cooler than the rest? Just trying to clarify.

To add the only thing different from this year to last is we had a weakening La Nina where this year it has maintained itself much longer. Im not exactly sure how that will play out for this year but if we look at the last 3 peat La Nina episodes (final year of it) 1975 and 2000 they both had low ACE ratings but activity didn't pick up until about mid August. Give it like 3 weeks before we start ringing those potential low activity bells.

Lol I mean we have a similar progression so far in MJO this year (maybe a week or two earlier) to last and you see what happened last year we pushed into 1/2 things took off mid august. Will it happen exactly like this maybe not but cant discredit the fact the pattern seems to be going this way.

It looks like we have gone into full on step function mode via the volume chart. Next leg down mid 2020's with the looming El Nino?

Seem to be reloading

Is it possible that with extent numbers still relatively higher than the descending average and choppy ice that we see a quicker cooldown scenario going into fall allowing for a potential of thicker ice as we move into the winter? I assume this would not allow for heat to escape in anyway shape or form from the ocean though.

I know this tends to not be everyone's favorite but this is just abysmal. Mind you we are only about mid July right now too. Still have a solid month of decent melt that can occur. GFS has been trying to push the idea of another ridging episode in the last week or so of July too which may just be the final push needed to melt out Beaufort, ESS, and parts of CAA. Somehow the Atlantic front is still sustaining itself even though it was the weakest portion of the ice starting into the melt season.

Lol I dont think anyone in here besides stormchaserchuck has mentioned el nino. A gradual waning though for sure seems to be in the picture as we move into winter but I have my doubts we maintain anything more than cold neutral through winter even with this incoming burst. Nino 4 will be the last to warm so it seems while areas in 1+2 and 3 will be a bit back and forth for the rest of summer into fall, 3.4 will be tricky with a balancing affect.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +1.9 +1.8 +2.1 +1.5 +1.4 +1.8 +2.4 +1.6 +0.9

Ain't looking good with another round of warmth showing up after the 4th of July across Alaska and the very northern reaches of Canada.

So at this point we are going with the idea of nino 4 holding on to the cold still while 1+2 and 3 should start to warm up slowly and work west over time. Nice move in the upper levels taking place. So probably not quite making third year La Nina status..

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +2.1 +1.9 +1.6 +0.6 +1.1 +0.8 +1.3 +2.4 +0.4 102 101 99 97 100 102 103 121 93

DCA +1.6 NYC +1.5 BOS +1.3 ORD -0.5 ATL +1.3 IAH +1.8 DEN +1.2 PHX +2.2 SEA -0.5

DCA +2.0 NYC +1.6 BOS +1.4 ORD +1.3 ATL +2.0 IAH +2.1 DEN +1.0 PHX +1.1 SEA -0.6

Would have to do a little digging around to find out. Might be a thing where temps are being accentuated due to the drought conditions prevailing as deserts while dry do still have some moisture availability so it would help keep the nighttime highs a little warmer while highs a little cooler. Now maybe it is allowing warming to go beyond what it was for daytime highs and not allowing the cool off to occur nearly as much at night? Small changes in moisture out that way probably play large differences in temps. It is also a cold current versus a warm current so flux is probably not nearly on the level of the east coast. I would assume maybe legit right along the coast may experience a similar setup to the east but further inland I feel would struggle with the net moisture flux especially considering the topography out that way. Feel more often then not winds are blowing from land to sea except along the immediate coast. May totally be wrong in that assumption having never lived out there and experiencing a few days of weather when visiting.

It is interesting of course because living in the area that has experienced warming I can say easily night time lows are the biggest change we have seen around here. Makes sense with it correlating to ocean heat flux increasing. Basically we are getting more low level moisture to stick around longer/ be replaced more frequently thus locking in higher temps especially at night versus daytime which don't get me wrong has increased but not on the level of nighttime temps in all seasons. I would love to see a study showing the differences to confirm that most of the warming has occurred via nighttime vs daytime or whether it truly is a balance of both and at what times of the year it is most likely to occur (my guess would be fall showing higher daytime peaks and warmer nights in all seasons but winter being the largest change). So for those that didn't watch: Increase in atmospheric CO2 --> higher SST (globally and locally) --> slowing of AMOC/ building up of NW Atlantic warmer waters --> changing jet pattern enhances this mode change and compounds the situation more for warming We have seen the change of more interspersed snowfalls across the Mid Atlantic, higher snowfall totals when we do get those big systems to occur, and overall snow-water equivalent levels well above average over the region as well as the NHEM as a whole. Having more ridging potential further in the NW Atlantic is a blessing sometimes and can be a big curse. In winter it is beautiful as it would allow for a further west trough allowing us to be near that baroclinic zone for these monster storms to occur. Of course the caveat is the issues that come in the summer time with tropical activity. This further NW Atlantic ridging promotes steering currents into the eastern US more so than the Gulf States, not to say these regions won't get hit, but the frequency of east coast hits may very well go up in the future do to this. I distinctly remember growing up in the 90's (in SEPA) we had some pretty decent drought years and during the summer we would be rather warm during the day and had many years with some really dead grass in the yards because of the lack of rain and heat that occurred. It seems around 2000-2005 area things flipped a bit we started to introduce more wet summers with less intense heat. Pretty difficult for us to push 100 outside of what the heat island metro areas produce. Flora has been going crazy in the region over the last 10 years it seems, we seem to have ripe conditions for a subtropical feel come late spring early summer, my backyard specifically is constantly on jungle watch with how quickly everything grows. Interesting stuff!

DCA +2.1 NYC +1.7 BOS +1.2 ORD +1.1 ATL +3.4 IAH +2.4 DEN +1.2 PHX +1.3 SEA -0.6

I have a bad feeling about the Arctic coming up this summer. Early season conditioning taking place while the Atlantic front is just a mess overall at or less then 1m thick ice over that way. With everything besides the end of January storm being about on par for a season it looked like things were maybe setting up for a better year. Hope this doesn't play out as such.

The two that have surprised me most by far is IAH and SEA.

Hmm maybe La Nina modoki to finish out the last year? I keep feeling like we may still have 3rd year La Nina, it has been kind of playing in the back of my mind for a bit. I had originally thought warm neutral was going to happen going into next winter but continuation of increased trade winds especially being much further west then the last 2 bouts has me second guessing. No coherent MJO wave that moves more than 1 octant in a month has occurred thus far and usually we are seeing some wave movement by now if we were to be going toward El Nino like. Not to mention the IOD is still in negative phase. Will be interesting to watch. Last times we have had 3rd year La Nina (1954-56 didn't quite make it into 3rd full year, 1973-76, 1998-2001) Periodicity of about 20-24 years in between each event.

You were much more humble before I really did enjoy reading your posts but this just doesn't help. Not sure what got to you but hopefully it doesn't keep affecting you.