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StormchaserChuck!

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Everything posted by StormchaserChuck!

  1. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah, the global system is not going to go La Nina below -0.8c 3.4 ONI. Weird. Invest in stocks.
  2. StormchaserChuck!
    ^Looks like a Moderate Nina coming, as per the subsurface. Will be interesting to see if the surface 3.4 breaks -0.7 now or in the next 3 years. (Tao/Triton isn't as strong, I've found better correlation in TAO/Triton).
  3. StormchaserChuck!
    La Nina going in the Pacific subsurface.. I found a correlation of hurricane season subsurface vs surface 0.97 to 0.83 vs the 0.97 to 0.90. So it's a La Nina... but no severe wx season really, and a lot of blandness right now in the atmosphere will probably keep us away from Cat 4s or 5s.
  4. StormchaserChuck!
    Subsurface certainly looks like healthy La Nina.. it won't go there I think officially.. "Nuetral" global conditions are too prevalent (maybe we'll max out -0.5 to -0.7). https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/assorted_plots/images/TAO_5Day_EQ_xz.gif
  5. StormchaserChuck!
    The high rainfall increases chances for -NAO Winter..
  6. StormchaserChuck!
    The drought is in the upper atmosphere. Wait until towering cumulonibus start happening again and watch how Drought is at the surface.
  7. StormchaserChuck!
    Things have trended pretty strongly away from +AO today. Warmer at the surface trend looks to continue, perhaps significantly. I think there will be a lot of +500mb heights in the Arctic circle for July. Also, Pacific-squeezed north Hadley Cell sustainable rarely works in verification.. more blocking over the Pole.
  8. StormchaserChuck!
    This is pretty cool, SOI and ENSO SST correlate more (not in reverse) when arctic ice is melting (2007-2012).
  9. StormchaserChuck!
    This is kind of ridiculous. At least models are picking up on stuff.
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