Daniel Boone

At least you own it brother,lol. Many of us fell for it. The Warmanistas are still trying to twist their reasoning and deny any fails.

Yeah, probably low Dp at onset. Hopefully we get a stronger push of cold with the follow-up System the 2nd. As is, a rain to snow in upper Valley at the end. If Models are correct, Northern VA and much of West Virginia are going to get buried. Much of Kentucky looks to get a good amount as well.

Yeah, the reflection thing is a concerning Factor for sure. As mentioned earlier, it will make for an interesting forecast period with the MJO in cold Phases.

You know he's working on something, lol.

If realized, that would probably leave it's Mark against a possible hostile otherwise Pattern that Don sees. Interesting Times ahead.

That may help irt to snow chances later on as well.

I agree. I see the usual warmanistas on the Main Forum are using Ensembles to preach their warm Outlook still but, now calling it a possibility. Also, not wanting to admit they were sold the first Week of the Month would be warm. I like those guys personally and they're smart meteorologically speaking but, as with many have their biases and let that sway them. Update: Upon further investigation, I see where they're coming from and partially why the , mainly GEFS, is spitting out what it is irr late December. It has a Scandinavian Block setting up. That generally forces a +AO. However, that's being brought on by models interpretation of a reflective SWE and the rebound. Sometimes the Scandinavian blocks reteograde over into the AO Domain and flip it negative.

Yeah, the Trough orientation screams gulf wave or LP Production and even hints of Anafrontal.

All we need is an Arctic Front for it to hookup with and run to the Benchmark

There about as lost as I've ever seen them.

Almost as if Analogues were fed into it to get that outcome, lol

Trainwreck. SER flexes on Weeklies. Looks like only part of the US that's going to benefit from the weakened PV will be mainly the Rockies and Plains. Euro Weeklies go from well above first 2 weeks to a basic Average look weeks 3 and 4 as SER is finally squashed. Of course, nothing is set in Stone as we've witnessed these change drastically recently. If they're not factoring the MJO much there may be a drastic change if MJO 8 flexes. Fwiw, the CFSv2 Weeklies are even worse. Wall to wall well above Normal.

Looks pretty much standard La Nina. Not surprising from Them.

Yep. Maybe the Mountains will get a few Flakes from that.

Hopefully, that'll expand East. It appears they're starting to correct from the Trough continuing in the SW. That's really showing the SER Print, lol

Yes, that's the thing many are a bit upset about, Models have expanded it's reach and extended a bit more over time Larry. Of course, that's the nature of these things as we know.

Baja Low has screwed us over many times in recent Years. Hard to dislodge the Pattern when a standing powerful SER has developed in response. Maybe the MJO will dislodge it if it gets to cold Phases at enough Amp. A Block upstream would help particularly with a 50-50 in place. Without it you risk the SER, -NAO hookup.

Bastardi with a list of similar MJO Rotation Year's. Interesting. https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1991636264131375456?t=RlTjHjywEdZ-E3BZU65rwA&s=19

Exactly. 2014 and 2015 had a dominant +NAO and we were cold and very Snowy. +TNH and PNA along with a parade of Systems continually riding up into Eastern Canada that kept pulling the cross polar flow southward instead of it typically getting pulled under the +NAO and into the NATL.

Yeah. The Baja Cutoff is the Issue. If upstream blocking, 50-50 and -NAO were in place we could benefit from it as waves or impulses would travel eatestd from that Baja LP. But, as you alluded to that's not the Case.

The one bias we hope turns out to be the case here is the Euro holding energy back in the SW.

That was my worry when I alluded to SW Trough yesterday.

Models usually get wonky when dealing with Stratosphereic Warming.

Close to record heat the 4th if that were to materialize. You can see huge motherlode of cold in Canada. That'll drive down on the heels of a major cutter. Then a boundary should ultimately setup somewhere along the Apps overall until the MJO goes toward late Ph 7. or the NAO goes negative. Either will drop that Boundary furthe SE. IF both coincide then the upper SE should see Snow Opportunities. If MJO ph.8 coincides with Blocking, fun and games for the deep South likely, imo.

Yeah, yesterday backed off and today gained momentum. Models for you.