Daniel Boone

This guy's Idol has to be JB.

That's one none of us want unless you like an average Florida like January.

Exactly. With the dual area's, that would favor back and forth of HP Centering of which would produce periodic +PNA. Other Drivers would have to spring it moreso one way or the other.

Lol. Can't believe I did that ! Should wear my Reader's. Big Thumbs don't work too well texting.

Lol. I didn't notice that. Should or proof read.

Yeah, the real worry at this juncture is possible impending drought.

Yeah, some studies show that Correlation. Whether random coincidence or actual effect, probably not enough proof.

Yeah, may turn out similar in several ways.

Yeah, quite the oddity. Couple years ago we had that weird shift with the QBO. Males for interesting research.

We hit Average in this part of the State as well.

Yeah, they're basically going full bore canonical Nina Pattern for Winter. If those SST'S in the GOA and along British Columbia remain very warm or even warm further , I'd wager not a canonical Nina Pattern. Looks to me with that a general Trough axis average would be Rockies and Plains. Blocking would allow for a good setup for us with that alignment as it would support slider's and maybe some Miller A's if Jet dives deep enough as trugh would be shunted east under block.. Just some food for positive thoughts.

Yeah, it's a concern as I don't like late season near record heat. Doesn't bode well. Hopefully a Monkey Wrench gets thrown in and alters the projected Pattern. Unforeseen TC Activity could do it.

Great work Man !

Yeah, that NEPAC Look would help augment and support a +PNA this Winter . Probably +TNH Episodes as well , looking at the whole Pac Profile. If we get some more improvement in the NATL we may get a better Winter Snow wise than most expect.

Yeah, looking some better out there. NATL looking better as well.

Glad you all got a significant Rain.

Seasonal snowfall model projecting most of the country well below normal like it did last year. Canada well above Snowfall.

Exactly. We averaged normal here. Model had us projected well below snowfall.

As of this writing, I'm approaching an inch on the Day. Alot of lightning and thunder. Kmrx put a severe t storm warning out for Jonesville. It just missed my local about a mile to my South as Wallen Ridge and Powell Mountain appeared to do their thing of pulling the Storm South with their Lift.

What look do you get with the combined QBO Status ?

We had a couple hours of early morning rain..1.24" Total. Jonesville proper, 2.18". Thar same pecip field moved over your area and kept expanding and backfilling. I'm expecting early cold and snow. May be another November Snowfall. Hopefully, an old fashioned big one.

I saw that Video. 2010-11 was a great Winter. Basically all Forecasters were predicting a mild one due to the formidable La nina. Upstream blocking crapped their Outlook's. I saw where 62-63 is being thrown around some as well. That one was just bitter. Not any big Snows but many Snowfalls. Blocking once again ruled the Roost.

Makes sense given ENSO heaviest weighted . Throw in a good amount of upstream blocking and you would get a good look. Hopefully the QBO State along with NATL SST'S will help accomplish that. I saw a Forecaster saying 2010-11 was a favored analogue. Ryan Hall I believe. That type Pattern would be what would result with the Cansips Outlook with added blocking.

If those SST'S remain pretty much as are around Newfoundland and those in the GOA warm a bit we could be looking at both. 50-50 Lows should be more prevalent. +TNH Pattern possible with the NPAC SST Profile. Let's not forget the QBO as well.

Yeah. I brought that up in the Tenn Valley Sub. If those SST'S around Newfoundland remain similar to now along with the QBO State, I think the likelihood of a -NAO is greater than many think.