Daniel Boone

Yeah. If that AH will scoot over Alaska and bridge to the -NAO . A retrogression west or SW of the GOA Low would then setup a pretty much solid cold Pattern. 12Z GFS illustrates what you mentioned ; Model Chaos. Rather tricky Pattern for Models to decipher.

Yeah, Larry is a great Asset to American Weather in pretty much all Aspects. Great guy with a Ton of Research Data and Information along with Meteorological Knowledge and Skill.

Been thinking same thing. Looks pretty obvious actually, imo. As with the pattern we've been in, regardless if there might be a difference in evolution or trough axis they'll possibly show a similar outcome in snow forecast and show those area's that's had plenty (Southern Va/Northern NC) getting snow and us rain or just more snow than us. I'm not saying that won't be what happens, particularly with a CAD wedge pattern. That stuff goes into the Model's (Models ingest System) and since they've not been going long as you alluded to, it makes sense.

Yep. Still got the usual crowd in Enso forum going complete eventual mild takeover for the east into January. Don S. even. He may change his thoughts with the latest data on the NAO coming in stronger and backing west. They were sold on it being east based. Larry's having to set them straight with latest charts. I won't gloat though as, it's not set in Stone yet.

Are you in a mountain Valley in any way ? It's 35 here. There was snow still lying around up in Wise County today. Half inch to an inch in some shady areas in Norton and Wise . The Temperature was near 40 there this Afternoon.

Not here either. December '89 was colder and snowier.

Everyone of them went to a +PNA. Wow .

The MJO is what had me concerned when we were discussing modeling may be pushing back west gradually with the big warmth . If it does go six with a GOA Low it could possibly force a deep western Trough . May start seeing bowling balls down the west Coast and then move inland. If that's the case, you may be right about the NAO and it may hook with the Continent Ridge but, the good thing too is that's more rare than the NAO, SER Hookup. If the NAO is Central based, Greenland centered, it's doubtful any mid continent hookup. It may just force that Ridge west and cause it to sharpen between the far western Trough and back building Eastern one. That happened a couple of times in the late 80's and early 90's. . Rather Tricky setup to forecast coming up. Timing of these features is going to affect the Outcome considerably, imo.

I saw where Bamwx is buying that Depiction. He's getting backlash of course. I recall the Winters when we got cold and Snow with a GOA Low in Place and that was how it was done. Systems would track NW to SE down the Jet . Sometimes Systems would traverse the STJ and phase in the lower Ms Valley. Those were the big ones if you got one in that Pattern. However, I recal some 3-6 inches with the Miller B and Clippers in that Pattern.

That's the evolution of getting that pesky GOA Low moved. Force that sucker South and West . The Central Ridge gets forced back West from the classic blocking that looks to be setting up..if that 50-50 is real, that'll be the real deal blocking Pattern.

Thanks brother ! I hope and pray your Wife gets well and you stay healthy. Dr said Flu was bad here too. He said Covid was too but it's Symptoms haven't been as bad as the other Viruses.

A -AO allows for the Cold in the Arctic and Northern Lats to spill further South. +AO tends to keep it bottled up North. It's not guaranteed cold here as if other Drivers force a Trough in the West it can still be mild here. It however increases odds of the real Cold air of reaching the lower Latitudes by a good margin. Doesn't mean you can't get it to get cold , or even snow in our area with a +AO as sometimes with the right 500 mb Setup CPF can occur.

Yeah. I still have this Upper Respiratory Virus. 12 days so far. Dr says it has now led to a Sinus and bronchial Infection. So, yeah would be a nice break with a mild period and more moisture in the air. Be careful out and about folks. Alot of nasty stuff going around. Dr even said the regular cold virus is stronger and harder to shake than usual.

Thanks Man ! Great Information !!!

Yeah, the most amazing imo was Knoxville hitting -24. -27 at my house west of Pennington gap Va. Couple -30 readings and a -32 reported in rural Wise County near Norton as I recall. What did you record there John ?

Yeah, eastern areas(east of the TN Valley )may very well not see much of the warm-ups at all. I think, as you alluded to earlier as well, we get in on some of them until Blocking asserts. I'm betting we see a couple very warm Days (60's) with maybe 70's western area's. I made a comment over in the MA Sub how we could get around the NPAC GOA Low problems as they're down on that being there as many are. Blocking is the key .Secondly, MJO in cold Phases . Also, gave you a Shout-out about your Pac NW Feedback Idea and how it could very well be the Case. If Jeffs still viewing, what's your take on what Carver's Ideas are irt the Feedback possibility of the Model's in the Pac NW ?

Down to 6 here this Morning. 4 at Daughters house down in a Valley. Saw couple 2 and 3 degree's on Couple Weather Station's in the in the County.

Yeah, we need those Features Opposite of where they are. Hopefully guidance is off with that Depiction but, looks pretty likely until Blocking sets up late Month or those features shift.

Just carrying on there man. Yeah, that's been the fault during the entire cold period overall. Southern Virginia from about Lebanon Eastward to Va Beach have had a great Stretch with plenty of Snow.

Yeah true. Hopefully enough pressure from a favorable MJO and Blocking will get rid of those flies in the Ointment. Once the Nina weakens the STJ should strengthen.

Need it over Alaska and the GOA Low over the Aleutians.

We gotta get rid of that GOA Low and slow down the Pac Jet. The sooner the better . I think, providing the MJO is in cold Phases we'd be alright then. As is , strong Blocking may do the trick.

Models have really struggled this late fall/ early Winter. Carvers gap in the Tn Valley Sub brought up something that could be right. Feedback in The Pac NW. Watch the Cycle's and check out the Runs that keep the East colder. Look at the difference in the PAC NW. Also, Webb has some rather interesting Ideas as well. We , no doubt need to shake any semblance of a GOA Low as we all know but, it is possible to work around it until we do. Chill covered those. The MJO back in Ph 8 hopefully helps as well.

Hopefully the Ridge doesn't do like the guy in thaht Song, I get knocked down, but I get up again, ain't nothin gonna slow me down ". Lol. I just had to man !

That happened in '95-96 as we know. It would Snow and be cold a few Days, warm up rain and even flood some a time or two then cold and snow again. Blocking was the big difference maker that Winter. If we can get strong persistent blocking, I think we'll score some good Snow Events.