Daniel Boone

Happy Anniversary !

Depends on strength of each really. Location of NAO as well.

Probably the increased likelihood of a Strong Block and bridge over along with possibly MJO becoming favorable would be my wag what's tipping them. It'll take a bit before my confidence builds. Main thing the next few days imo is to watch the progression of the NAO. Then that of the AR.

That's what we talked about and what it's going to take to spoil the warm pattern early. Still not sold it'll happen though. If it doesn't, that massive nina HP and freaking GOA low are Staples for awhile.

That Jan 6-7th Storm was a Monster ! Remember it well. Recorded 13" at the Radio Station amongst the buildings and Streets in Pennington gap. 16" outskirts of Town. 18 to 20" in Western Lee County in Rose Hill area(there was a deformation of sorts that ran across there ). Some Highest Elevations up to 24". As we all know, that went on to be a Major Blizzard in the mid Atlantic with over 40" in area's !

That link you posted Holston was December 96 and January 97. It's 95 and 96 we were looking for.

I didn't think we had to deal with an AR that Winter. Blocking was a big thing that Winter though.

Nina HP was well south then . By Christmas a +PNA with the HP centered over the NW and LP over Aleutians. Trough in East. We should further that Winter in increments in Time and see what evolution was.

I used to get mine to post the map now just does Link. Anyway, look what a change by Christmas then.

This is this day in 1995 Plymouth State Weather Center Compare to Christmas then : Plymouth State Weather Center I know it just shows Site link but it goes directly to Map.

Yeah, la nina augmented you might say. Nina actually strengthened a little recently after a steady weakening. Should see a rather fast weakening from here on. I think i'll go back and look at some NPAC Charts from 95-96 and see how or if the AR was prominent then.

Yeah. If that AH will scoot over Alaska and bridge to the -NAO . A retrogression west or SW of the GOA Low would then setup a pretty much solid cold Pattern. 12Z GFS illustrates what you mentioned ; Model Chaos. Rather tricky Pattern for Models to decipher.

Yeah, Larry is a great Asset to American Weather in pretty much all Aspects. Great guy with a Ton of Research Data and Information along with Meteorological Knowledge and Skill.

Been thinking same thing. Looks pretty obvious actually, imo. As with the pattern we've been in, regardless if there might be a difference in evolution or trough axis they'll possibly show a similar outcome in snow forecast and show those area's that's had plenty (Southern Va/Northern NC) getting snow and us rain or just more snow than us. I'm not saying that won't be what happens, particularly with a CAD wedge pattern. That stuff goes into the Model's (Models ingest System) and since they've not been going long as you alluded to, it makes sense.

Yep. Still got the usual crowd in Enso forum going complete eventual mild takeover for the east into January. Don S. even. He may change his thoughts with the latest data on the NAO coming in stronger and backing west. They were sold on it being east based. Larry's having to set them straight with latest charts. I won't gloat though as, it's not set in Stone yet.

Are you in a mountain Valley in any way ? It's 35 here. There was snow still lying around up in Wise County today. Half inch to an inch in some shady areas in Norton and Wise . The Temperature was near 40 there this Afternoon.

Not here either. December '89 was colder and snowier.

Everyone of them went to a +PNA. Wow .

The MJO is what had me concerned when we were discussing modeling may be pushing back west gradually with the big warmth . If it does go six with a GOA Low it could possibly force a deep western Trough . May start seeing bowling balls down the west Coast and then move inland. If that's the case, you may be right about the NAO and it may hook with the Continent Ridge but, the good thing too is that's more rare than the NAO, SER Hookup. If the NAO is Central based, Greenland centered, it's doubtful any mid continent hookup. It may just force that Ridge west and cause it to sharpen between the far western Trough and back building Eastern one. That happened a couple of times in the late 80's and early 90's. . Rather Tricky setup to forecast coming up. Timing of these features is going to affect the Outcome considerably, imo.

I saw where Bamwx is buying that Depiction. He's getting backlash of course. I recall the Winters when we got cold and Snow with a GOA Low in Place and that was how it was done. Systems would track NW to SE down the Jet . Sometimes Systems would traverse the STJ and phase in the lower Ms Valley. Those were the big ones if you got one in that Pattern. However, I recal some 3-6 inches with the Miller B and Clippers in that Pattern.

That's the evolution of getting that pesky GOA Low moved. Force that sucker South and West . The Central Ridge gets forced back West from the classic blocking that looks to be setting up..if that 50-50 is real, that'll be the real deal blocking Pattern.

Thanks brother ! I hope and pray your Wife gets well and you stay healthy. Dr said Flu was bad here too. He said Covid was too but it's Symptoms haven't been as bad as the other Viruses.

A -AO allows for the Cold in the Arctic and Northern Lats to spill further South. +AO tends to keep it bottled up North. It's not guaranteed cold here as if other Drivers force a Trough in the West it can still be mild here. It however increases odds of the real Cold air of reaching the lower Latitudes by a good margin. Doesn't mean you can't get it to get cold , or even snow in our area with a +AO as sometimes with the right 500 mb Setup CPF can occur.

Yeah. I still have this Upper Respiratory Virus. 12 days so far. Dr says it has now led to a Sinus and bronchial Infection. So, yeah would be a nice break with a mild period and more moisture in the air. Be careful out and about folks. Alot of nasty stuff going around. Dr even said the regular cold virus is stronger and harder to shake than usual.

Thanks Man ! Great Information !!!