Daniel Boone

Yeah, I think mainly if there's split Flow. As you know, we have gotten many snowfalls with the STJ Trekking across southern call and across the southern States but generally the Polar Jet Trough is down into the Plains and East. They would tend to merge . If not, a wave riding the STJ would move up enough to produce Snow with HP to our North .

Agree with the south , central and West but further East in the upper South, South Central and SE Virginia, North and NE NC just had their earliest, snowiest start to Meteorological Winter in Many Year's with 3 back to back Snowfalls in early December. Some Area's in the Yukon hit -65 recently. Not saying Climate change is not real overall but, it's still exagerrated somewhat for now, imo. Northern Florida broke Snowfall Records last Winter with 10" in Milton, 7" in Pensacola. Much of Climate is Cyclical. Regardless of what the cause was or is. Greenland was once Farmland according to Archaelogical Findings and Scientific evidence. The cause is Hypothesis and Theories. We don't know for sure. We may continue on a warming Cycle for quite some time. May not. There's been warm periods and cold periods over the Years since recorded History. Some short duration, some long. The little Ice Age for Instance. There's speculation and Theories on the cause of it. In the Late '70's there was serious talk that we could be heading into another Ice Age. We just don't know really. Could be a Cycle to where we go so warm that Greenland is Farmland again. God forbid. Of course, we'll all probably be gone before that Extreme if it were to occur.

Yeah, most of the Time that is the case.

Yep. that Cuban Ridge is there. If they turn out wrong about that we could be setting up pretty good. +TNH works great for us without a SER. Baja or SW Lows pump that Ridge. Without those, there shouldn't be much of an SER. Hopefully guidance is off on those hanging there.

I see they finally changed their Tune a bit.

Lol true. I was just carrying on with him. I couldn't help it, lol. I thought he may of intentionally used that word if you put it in Context. Depending whether or not the occurrence was desired or not. He's a good Poster. Great with Teleconnections.

Yw man . I knew you knew. Just a mistake we sometimes make. '76 was the January..it was a cold one in these parts. Not alot of Snow but several small one's. Dry overall.

You're right and right about Coz being right imo. I think I got that right. Sometimes things just go against the grain; atypical patterns and paths. Chaos, multiple, diverse Driver's etc. The strongly negative QBO is without a Doubt a Player in my Mind.

Yeah, so much for the MJO 6 always warm ideaology. Jan. 77 coldest in modern History. Btw, that was a weak El nino Winter, if that has little if any different affect on the Outcome.

Yeah, that's valid points Jax. I'm sure you meant Shift though lol.

How's it handling the Thorn in the NEPAC ? Is it showing a weaker Trough there ?

The GFS is worse than it ever was now. Since last upgrade it is terrible imo. I spoke with the NWS about it and asked about when they'd last upgraded. His reply was they're always doing something with them lately.

Yep, exactly what you and I had discussed. Man, if this does transpire can you imagine the shock to the front range and Southern Plains ?! They've been dominated by that heat Ridge for a Couple Months for the most part. Denver is at Record level for least Snow at this Juncture.

About a quarter of an inch here. Between a half inch and a inch in Dryden , about 2 miles ENE of Pennington gap. Norton and Wise 1-2 inches.

Let's not forget it's the GooFuS.

Flurrying fairly good here now.

A few light flurries here this Morning.

Yeah, same here. Mentioned it couple pages back and Carver's and John told how to get around the problem.

It is getting that way here. About half the Average Rainfall for December.

Oh, I know that . I was referring to how the block retrogades and other effects of it along with the AK Vort.. Yeah, a tall PNA Ridge is tops in my opinion, really for the whole area , in general.

Yeah, exactly. Just looking at latest GEM it shows a big Storm but Thermals are marginal at best. Western US Ridge, Huge West based Gl Block but, big Thorn Vort over Alaska working in Tandem with the Gl HP in not allowing CAA into the States and pulling Canadian air to the Asian side. So, if enough cold could get in here under that monster -NAO ee would be in Business.

That Alaskan Thorn . That Menace needs booted out.

Yeah. Usually good Teleconnections as you said. Blocking throws the usual downstream flow off kilter. Hopefully, this is the Case coming up. We shall see I suppose.

Yeah. He does a good job. I don't know what's going on with the US Model's. Maybe they were recently "upgraded". If so, maybe DEI Hires did them.

Embarrassing really.