NCBlizzard

Likewise, ha!

Massive flakes falling now here 2 mi N of RDU. Temp is down to 26.1°F. RDU reporting 1.0 mi visibility. Sidewalks are finally starting to cover now (as long as the rate holds) but still nothing on asphalt. It's a beaut.

1.5" here 2 mi NW of RDU. 19°F low. Beautiful outside.

Light snow (quite small flakes) here just north of RDU. Starting to have a dusting cover on cars/elevated surfaces. Station reading: 24.2°/12.2°F.

The fact that our (RDU area) 'true' snow drought hasn’t ended (in my opinion) makes even the thought of 0.5” of pure fluff feel phenomenal. No sleet, no ZR—just snow. Fingers crossed here in Durham! I’m oddly optimistic—given the fact that the trend we need is usually the one we hate yet always get. Fully prepared for disappointment, but honestly, this—checking the threads, intermittently checking the models, getting a brief rush of possibilities, and just thinking about snow—is so much better than the bleak 2021-2024 stretch when winter felt like nothing more than cold rain and bare skies, waiting for the blooms to pop open.

Massive snowflakes the past 30 minutes. Recorded 0.5" about 20 minutes ago. As of 7 PM here just NW of RDU: Wet bulb temp of 26.5°F GFS +0.4°F warmer than observed NAM: +0.1°F HRRR: +0.5°F HRRR Subhourly: +1.1°F RDPS: -1.2°F GDPS: -1.7°F

Light snow starting to cover surfaces. HRRR subhourly valid for 4:45 PM at my location (2 mi. NW RDU) was Ta 34.3° (actual 32.2°) with a wet bulb of 27.4° (actual 27.3°)

As of ~4 PM, my weather station recorded a temperature of 28.2°F (~2 miles NW of RDU). Compared against model forecasts for this time: NBM: +1.2°F (1.2°F too warm) GFS: +0.1°F GDPS: -0.1°F HRRR: -0.9°F RDPS: -1.0°F NAM: -1.2°F

Ended up with about 3.75” total here 4 miles north of RDU (measured every hour or so on a snowboard). Measuring on the board where I didn’t clear off throughout the storm, the actual snow depth is about 3” due to compaction and wind. Great storm! Beautiful out

Closing in on 4" here about 4 miles north of RDU. Rates were incredible there for a bit under that last band. Definitely overperformed my expectations!

Also beautiful here. Just did similar myself taking the dog for a walk. Roads are totally covered. As I was walking back inside, a cop came whizzing by and a minute later I heard sirens, so I figure it's slick out

Closing in on 0.25" here about 4 miles N of RDU. Total snow depth (i.e., also including what fell last night with the front) is 0.5". Snowfall rates quickly picking up. Air temp is down to 23.5

About 1/4" snow before the changeover here about 3 mi. north of RDU. Freezing rain starting to mix in with the sleet now... was hoping to stay mostly sleet a bit longer

I’m at 31.3 with a wet bulb of 30.2 in South Durham, right at I-40. A solid glaze on elevated surfaces/trees (maybe 0.05”), but sidewalks and roads are just wet. I’m surprised we got this cold here based on trends late last night. At 9 AM, my station was 2.2°F colder than the NAM and 1.4°F colder than the HRRR projected. Some more light precip moving in now so we’ll see if those trends mean anything at this point. Oddly enough, GFS/RDPS have been the most accurate on temps so far.

I agree it definitely runs colder, and sometimes by a lot. At the very least, it seems to run 2-4°F too cold on average. RGEM forecast low for tonight here is 15, which is 6 degrees cooler than the NWS forecast and around 10 degrees cooler than all other models except the Canadian. I have a hard time believing we get to 15 here, but we shall see…

Yep, been stuck in that hole for a while here in south Durham. I noticed it on the HRRR but hoped it was a fluke. Overall, had a brief rain/snow/sleet mix early this morning 5-6 am, leaving a trace on elevated surfaces. Then a rain/snow mix since 7:30. I didn't have my hopes too high overall though. And you're right about the Triangle being really lucky the past several years. Can't complain much at all given that.

Transitioned from a mix to all rain in south Durham (near Southpoint mall for those familiar) an hour or so ago. 34.9 currently, which is about 1-2°F cooler than the NAM/HRRR forecast for 8AM.

Rain/snow/sleet mix in South Durham. Temperature has dropped to 36.7.

While every model was too warm with dew point/wet bulb temperature here at my place in Durham, still just a cold 33° rain. Below is the forecast dew point error for 9 AM compared against the 32.7°F recorded at my station: HRRR +0.8° GFS +1.1° RGEM +2.2° NWS NDFD +2.3° NAM +2.3°

I'm near Southpoint Mall and all snow. It's really coming down. My station is reading 34 and wet bulb is almost to 32 Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

I noticed as well, and the same is happening at my house with the dewpoint dropping at -2.8°/hr now. There seems to be a stretch of locally higher DP through parts of S Orange, S Durham, and W Wake county but hopefully that disappears quickly. NAM dewpoint forecast was about a degree higher at 8AM that what I measured with my station.

For my house in S. Durham, the NAM is way warmer than the current air temperature, with GFS/HRRR being the best right now.

I think it at least starts with what they call the "National Blend of Models" that is then adjusted by individual offices before the forecast data actually goes into NWS NDFD forecast grids. Here's a a link to some info about that: https://www.weather.gov/mdl/nbm_about and you can also see the text output for the NBM for airports across the US by navigating through this directory: http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/blend/prod/