Itstrainingtime

1.2" with moderate snow. Temp up to 30. Flake size increasing. Sleet close.

14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Red Robin...Yummmmmm

Took my wife there last night!

Temp down to 29.4. Snow accumulating on everything. MU's call for up to 3" for all is looking pretty good now.

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Not much in this business beats watching it snow while tracking something significant for later in the week.

Wish the Canadian wouldn't have gone the wrong way. It's been fairly steady the past few runs.

Obviously it is an intricate setup.

I've been ninja'd twice already!

Impressive - temp fell from 35.3 at onset 30 minutes ago to 32.0 now.

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Good to see the GFS start to get on board for Thursday. It’s still not all the way there, but good to see it heading the right direction.

Good met csnavywx just told Randy to open up a storm thread in the MA sub.

Love when big time red taggers push for that.

1 minute ago, whiteout said:

Have an inch here in western Cumberland. Pounding snow all roads covered. Beautiful scenes. 26 degrees right now.

Hoping next weeks storm doesn’t leave us in the western areas out. Some models giving like 6-10 when 50 miles east is seeing 20+. Just need some tuck tight to the coast and we all can win.




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You're near Doubling Gap, correct?

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Models dropped the ball over here as we are in the middle of a snow storm.  2-3" on the ground and all roads are dicey.   Down to 28. 

Awesome, enjoy! 

Just now, sauss06 said:

I’m just catching up, I see all this now. I agree, could be ugly.

Yeah wind advisories for 50mph doesn't faze me too much. Winds to 60-65 is much worse.

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Light snow has begun. Temp is 35 though.

Temp down to 33.3 as rates increase.

Light snow has begun. Temp is 35 though.

ICON joins the parade for snow next week. Huge jump towards the Canooks and Europeans.

2 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Why?

Winds. 

I'm kind of nervous myself.

Holy toledo Blizz! Let's reel this sucker in!

15 minutes ago, paweather said:

Nope. Come on GFS! 

Check out the Canadian. Super duper amped! Heavy snows extend way west of us.

The AI comes much closer to snowing on Bermuda than it does here. Storm is literally a couple hundred miles offshore.

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Sounds like a Penn State football fan going to a playoff game! 

We pass out from other contributors but the overall result is the same! 

5 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

EPS is beautiful


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8"+ mean over just about the entire LSV. 

Blizz spent all of that money on a hotel in center city and has been waiting outside for like 17 hours now. All of that and he's missing the parade because he just passed out. 

Just now, AccuChris said:

12z Euro tucked and loaded for next week


.

Acceptable. 

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think part of my reasoning is that if we used forecasters it would not be as fun of a hobby (for some.) re: if someone is just parroting DT or MU is that really fun when it comes to informing friends and family?   This is specific to the question from festus, where would you get info to pass to others.   Frankly WGAL, which I have on in the back ground most nights, gives as much or more detail as any other forecaster.  They are the "weather authority" for TV around here.  LOL.  

Understood. I'm here for the same reason. I just tend to give more weight elsewhere. Totally agree about WGAL - I think they are leaps and bounds ahead of the Harrisburg stations. 

Someone pushed Elliott on X for his opinion on next week's event. Right now he's thinking a moderate event for Lanco. 

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I agree with your assessment in sentence 1.  WGAL is the most watched and listened to weather "forecaster" in the area.   Many people who just want to know the weather for their daily needs would not like the dry and often changing NWS Zone forecasts and do not know how or want to look at the AFD.   I always assumed most here use models vs. forecasters.  

I think that's accurate. And I'm admittedly the dissenter from that group. I maintain that a very good met trumps models the vast majority of the time because an excellent local met is going to give weight to models and then factor in nuances like I started mentioning in my post above that models simply miss. We've had countless storms that mixed in Lanco that not one single model picked up on. 

3 minutes ago, Festus said:

When it comes to forecasts, most locals I talk to or overhear usually cite output from WGAL or WHTM (and rarely, the NWS, sadly).  

I'm guessing most of our family, friends, coworkers, etc know we're weather weenies and look to us as "being in the know".  So when you provide the latest to them, what's your method?  Average the latest model runs in your head and customize a forecast?  Weight output from the NWS a little heavier?  A favorite source here or elsewhere?  Don't touch the subject with a ten foot pole?

 

Personally, I go with my localized climate and also 50+ years of history. I remember everything. After that amount of time and data collection, general trends start to emerge. I know that in Lanco we should never count on a clipper due to downsloping unless the track is roughly through NOVA. I know that big east coast storms generally mix here much faster and more often than any model will show...I learned that the hard way and also from Horst years ago. Someone questioned him why he was calling for sleet when no other forecaster or model showed it, his reply was they were all wrong because there's nothing to impede that flow off the ocean in our area. Things like that stick with me. And my notes. As far as actual forecasters, I do rely on MU the most but also factor in what some mets in here say. @MAG5035 is someone whom I trust and respect and heed his calls. Also, @MillvilleWx is another, and I think he was a disciple of Eric. 

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Ukie with a nice coastal track that gives like 6-8" to us easterners and drops off as you head NW to about 3" around State College.  Biggest totals of a foot around coastal NJ and DE.  Still has room to be pulled in.  A nice result.

Yeah, a little further east than 0z but in the ballpark. Small changes aloft won't be sorted out for a few days and those subtleties will have big implications on the final result.