Itstrainingtime

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gfs and Canadian are next to nothing literally.

Like...outside of a small area in Delmarva it's almost a non event relatively speaking.

8 minutes ago, paweather said:

I haven’t heard anything about the GFS. Can’t be good.

It's terrible. Worse than the ICON. 

I'd take my chances with that look.

3 minutes ago, Ruin said:

yes but its what forecasts go by and what every one posts. Im just point out cant they do a better job with it? does any one know here how accurate any of the models are? do they have a tracking website where it shows hits or missing with what they showed what would happen vs what did?

One thing to keep in mind - very small changes can have significant implications in results. Models simply can't hash everything out perfectly days in advance. But I'll bet the final verdict will be close to what we see now as far as the general idea.

23 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

I wouldn’t put you in the Deb group

Oh I’m not but I take pride in being realistic vs. a weenie. 

Regarding models - 

IF...and this is a huge IF...but if we end up getting shutout this week I WILL start giving some credence to the AI. It has consistently been SE all along.

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Back then we did not have "constant rumors" of the great pattern since our childhood.  Sometimes the Interwebs take away some of the enjoyment.  Growing up a 2-4" snow used to be fun and an event, now it is often a "what if'.

So true! I got excited for 3-6"!

8 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

THIS. People forget how rare this stuff is supposed to be. So many ways to fail, always and forever. 

I grew up in the 70s. Outside of February 1978 it was a brutal decade. It would be carnage in here if that was repeated.

1 minute ago, GrandmasterB said:

When did our forum pick up so many Debs? A lot of football spiking for 100+ hours out. 

My contention is from being spoiled over the past 20-25 years. We used to average a double digit snowstorm about once a decade. They started to become commonplace to the point where they've become an unrealistic expectation.

31 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I personally agree with this assertion in why the GFS should have shown more precip back over and into the 500 low. And his other points are valid but that is not what the GFS did so there has to be a reason the shuttered the entire southern complex well into the ocean.  I fear it was the influence from a stronger higher to the NW combined with a lagging NS.

I thought of you when I was reading Hoffman's post. Makes total sense what you're both saying. Really interesting stuff to consider and watch for.

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

When will the progression SE end?

Will it end?

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

We always do…

Most our memorable storms have had doubts & off runs of models mixed in just a couple of days out from the event.

 

True that.

We are in an overall pattern that favors eastern areas.

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I meant for "others".  Looking for advice!    LOL.  The Icon does not even break me out of the 40's while some other progs are 60's. 

In the words of Nike: "Just do it!"

Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I wasn’t expecting this but my temp has been dropping and is back down to 32. 

My temp hasn't risen or dropped since 3:30. Steady as she goes at 32.4

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The set up is there for a classic memorable storm if the players come together just right.

It really is. But we need a lot to go just right.

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

More importantly, shorts tomorrow?  

They're on today. I'd say likely again tomorrow.

1 hour ago, anotherman said:

Man, why do allow myself to get sucked in time after time. Awful.

It's far from over.

Another example of my disdain for snow maps.

Elliott has been saying the last few days that the most likely outcome for us is a light to moderate event. Doesn't mean he'll be right but the setup has been loaded with potential but also very precarious.

17 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I understand, but you can’t deny his knowledge.

Sorry I shared the educated opinion of a professional Met with thousands of paid followers & corporate clients all over the world…

Please don't apologize! I'd be upset if you didn't! It's my choice to not read...the issue is mine to bear. 

5 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Can somebody illustrate to me the last time Joe Bastardi was right about a storm?

 

No disrespect to those who share his thoughts, but when I see Joe Bastardi I move on and refuse to read. His thoughts mean nothing to me.

Which honestly is sad because 40 years ago I hung to his words.

ICON is a beat down for a lot of us - 12-20" less west and more east.

30 minutes ago, paweather said:

MA winter continues  can’t we all have fun.

 

I feel the same way BUT it is very typical of Nina winters.

16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

GEPS was quite bad for the 20th  Probably the worst of any models runs I have seen today.   A nothing bagger. 

There is some sort of disturbance diving down from Canada that is shunting this SE. If this trends stronger we'll likely get nothing. If it weakens, we're in the game. Issue currently is that it has trended stronger on 3 consecutive runs on the Euro.

Final total of 1.7" - mix of light sleet and rain. Temp up to 32.4

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

It has climbed to 36 here.  9 degrees in 2-2.5 hours.  The damn has broken. 

I'm staring down a 60 piece tomorrow.

Light snow and 31. Had sleet mix in a while ago but back to all snow for now. 1.7"