Itstrainingtime

16 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I've been watching painfully as that band stays mere miles to my south. If I squint I can see very slight movement northward. Literally on the edge of it now. Brutal. 

It has completely shut off here. Nary a flake.

5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Light snow and 27. Up to .2"

My forecast verified! When I said 2-4" it was implied that the "2" was in tenths.

Light snow and 27. Up to .2"

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Someone (like anotherman said) in the LSV is getting jacked right  now.  Thin bad unfortunately. 

It ain't here, lol

I guess I'm in PSU Hoffman's camp. We're hunting big dogs and this weekend would take a miracle.

26 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I love today’s trend for Saturday!

We are in NO position to turn down any snow.

The models are finally recognizing that there is a strong block developing.

Good news to the concern about cutting on Saturday- it does cut to a certain point before it jumps to the coast.

If we’re lucky, we could get a few inches on the front end, mix/rain for a time, then switch back to a few more inches of snow on the back end as cold air is ushered back in with the final wave as the low heads up & off the coast.

There is plenty of of room & time for the potential blockbuster a few days later.

Matter of perspective and wants. I want a big snowstorm, not a sloppy mix that turns to rain and results in nothing much on the ground. I get the idea but in this case why give up a really decent chance of a memorable storm for this? You are positioned to do better on Saturday but even where you live it's quite possible you get very little snow.

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

The evolution of 2/20 on the 12Z is gone on the 18Z.  Weather souther system a day or two earlier.   I wonder how much the HH change for a much snowier Sat/Sun plays into that. 

A lot of people including some "respected" mets were saying that for a big east coast snowstorm next week we should be pulling hard for this weekend's storm to cut. 

I hate today's trends for Saturday. 

Wow.

Left work at 4:15, somewhere between .5" and 1" of snow with SN+ falling and all surfaces covered. Got home 35 minutes later and it's flurrying with just a light dusting here. Temp was 27 at work and it's 29 here at home. 

Freshly minted - an all rain storm this weekend with temps potentially reaching the 60s on Sunday, and then it's time to buckle up:

https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/forecasts/weather-discussion.php

Flurries in Maytown and 32 degrees. 

Edit: Flakes flying in Conestoga as well. 

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Sn+ albeit smaller flakes right now.  Between 1/4 and 1/2" on elevated surfaces, grass, etc.  No accums on pavement yet.    Still 29. 

Well on your way to 3-6".   

1 minute ago, sauss06 said:

overcast & 38 here in the burg at work 

Just now, canderson said:

It’s warm for sure. 

You're much warmer than down my way - current conditions at the airport down the road from me:

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KPAMARIE28?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR1aUZn05v6EL1SCu83D6YWAz4KB0xPA7zBHapk7ZxcoZfWMxfMgsX9YEUY_aem_AatgGdtB3HDmy_lQiEQW3p1bDKQzlUbvSccn8VpHsQ_8zcjQ2DxBPNU21ROdUrVrozfMvldDScho9lY6LgyGK0dL

Snow is developing much sooner than some forecasts...Elliott didn't have snow beginning in Mitch's hood until at least 3pm. Early snow is hardly ever a bad thing. 

Speaking of the January storm when many of us in the southern tier got caught in the subsidence between the 2 main bands, you can see signs here where the northern band MIGHT be setting up over the LSV with a bit of a gap across northern MD and then the main show farther south. We'll see how this evolves over the next few hours:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad

15 minutes ago, Ruin said:

And another swing and a miss count is 0 and 2

If nothing else you are consistent in your posting style. If we get a big storm I have no doubt that you'll point out your 31" measurement is .5" less than Camp Hill got. 

In contrast, the Canadian is flatter which results in lighter snows in PA while the Delaware beaches enjoy 1-1.5 feet of snow. (next week's potential event) 

8 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Incoming Bombogenisis maximus on GFS at 228

 

One day....real soon i hope, ona deez is gonna stick.  

Yeah, she bombs out just a little too tucked for you and me. True central PA would get mauled, verbatim. 

1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said:

The American Storm

 

@BigJoeBastardi

·

12m Huge Weatherbell post on Weekend storm and me and my analogs ( and now conventional models) vs the AI on blizzard threat next week Analogs of April 1982, Jan 1996, Jan 2016 look like this, Euro and GFS look much like it. AI more spread out weakens block

Time for Henry Margusity to put on his big dog hat...

9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Icon is primed at 180. 

This is going to be a long 8-9 days. The models have caught on to the pattern, ripe full of ingredients and joined them in the kitchen. The table is being set, the meal is being prepared. Next week, let's all eat. 

4 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

His contours actually make sense. Not a bad looking map. 

It's fun watching and analyzing what's going on later today with at least 2 more opportunities (including a potential bell ringer) in our hip pocket to follow over the next 1.5 weeks. We haven't had this amount of action in years. 

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Gfs puts the world back where it belongs.

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Euro

That is bizarre agreement 10 days out. Wow.

2 minutes ago, AllWeather said:

Yes sir. I’m in real estate now and loving it, but my wife still asks for forecasts so I stay plugged in every day. 

Your coverage/reports/forecasts on WGAL for the January 2016 storm were epic. I think they're still on the station's YouTube page.

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

He must not have looked at 18z.

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I was clearly joking…

This place needs a sarcasm font.

How am I supposed to know that you were "clearly joking" from your post. 

I consider myself at least somewhat smart/educated and I did not detect an ounce of joking in "He must not have looked at 18z" without an "lol", smiling emoji...something. That clearly appears to me that you're saying "dude, why not look at 18z?"

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It’s been discussed on here, it’s what the ongoing narrative has been.

He is a known warm weather lover. But I don't recall anyone ever saying he hates snow other than in jest when he doesn't call for much. 

I'm sorry if I came off either rude or blunt but when I see something that isn't accurate I'm going to call it out.