Itstrainingtime

28 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Since I was looking at the stats,  

 

Last third of the month starting...

 

Feb Stats

MDT's has 1.91" of qpf while the norm is 1.55".

MDT's Mean Temp has been 32.3 while 32.1 is normal through yesterday.

Of the 17 days in the books, 9 have been AN and and 8 BN. 

 

Feb and Met Winter Snow

MDT is well BN with snow only having 3.3" while 6.1" is normal.   I believe that gives MDT 15.5" of snow for MET WINTER while normal would be 19.6".   MDT will probably need that Feb 27th/28th time period to work out to avoid a loss for Met winter. 

 

For the record, I do not think winter is over. I'd be highly surprised if we don't see at least one "plows down" snowfall in the coming weeks. I don't know if that happens or not during met winter. 

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Feb is above average for qpf at MDT right now. 

Ooops!   

MU: Some interesting takes in this, including his assertion of the continuation of a dry weather pattern:

https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/forecasts/weather-discussion.php

Oh, and basically his "Winter Cancel" proclamation. 

24 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nice choice.

I made my OBX vacation today so I  have summer on my mind. I'm really, really ready to move on from consecutive winter failure number 4.

Only way I'll go when headed to OBX. I gave up on 95 years ago. I'll take the slow place of Delmarva any day. 

Well...we lost the NAM. In a big way too. Pretty much all guidance is now aligned. Time for a scenic trip across the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel. 

10 minutes ago, Ruin said:

Actually I will be very happy 

Seriously...I truly do hope you will be. And I hope your posting reflects that. 

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

You are on a roll lately! 

Saw a post in the MA thread of someone who went from .1" up to .2" of QPF from the latest Euro run. I thought to myself "there's another guy with a bump of white powder."

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It starts in 10 days and you will not be happy.

Second question of the day - just for my own curiosity, did we verify the High Wind Warning that was issued? I read that there are 2 pieces of criteria:

• Sustained winds of 40 mph
• Any gust that exceeds 58 mph

Highest winds gusts were all over the place from @canderson CTP report yesterday, a lot of areas fell below the threshold and some were above. If it verified at MDT does that validate the warning? (And I don't recall what MDT's top gust was) 

Maytown had a gust last Thursday of 58 mph prior to any wind statement issued. From this event the top gust was "just" 48 mph. 

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It basically snows all day Thursday in your hood.   Starts overnight Wed. 

Thank you. I was just was reading commentary and saw a met say fairly definitively that we were (are?) literally just hours off in timing from this being a KU storm in our area. 

25 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Like yesterday, 12Z is the time for the Nam to go norther again

 

I haven't looked at anything since yesterday afternoon - IF by chance we do get something, what is the timing? 

NAM with 14" of snow in Salisbury MD. That's 14" more than the ICON. Oh to be a snow weenie on the Eastern Shore about now. 

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Does not look like the Icon or rgem are joining the party though getting a bit late for Icon. 

I'm through 39 and the ICON is even farther south than it was. 

Through 30, I don't think the Germans are going to play nice with us. 

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Did you notice it got WAA snow over us/prior to any tug from the west?  Would need a HUGE adjustment for us to get snow from a coastal but I would take 1-2" of white powder with a little more bump. 

White powder with a bump.

Amazing what you learn about people on here...

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

This is the kind of depiction that we can make up in 48 hours - it's a wee bit more problematic when other guidance is in Florence. LOL

If there was just ONE piece of guidance remotely in camp NAM, this would be legit interesting. 

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Plows down for far south PA. 

I invested more time in this than probably any storm in the past. Why quit now? Still 48 hours out. 

DT lovin' the NAM! 

At hour 63 it actually got light snow into SE PA. Delmarva was back in the goods again. 

18z NAM with yet another crawl north - if it does that 2 or 3 more cycles it will snow in southern PA. 

Of course, it's on a desolate island...

49 minutes ago, canderson said:

Signs of a real torch after next week though. 

I can’t remember the last March snowstorm we had. It seems like it’s been years. 

March 2018 we had a doozy on the spring equinox. I measured 17.3" from that one. March 2019 we had snow on snow early in the month with most of us posting 6-10" snow depths. It's been pretty quiet since. 

3 minutes ago, paweather said:

We haven’t had a good March winter for awhile 

Last several runs of the European Model: In 24 hours Rehoboth went from historic to a dusting: