Itstrainingtime

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Well except for a very shallow wave that drops 1 to at the most 2" of snow for Southern PA next Saturday, the Euro is a snoozer.     The cutter later next week even manages to skip much of this forum leaving little precip. 

Models aside there seems to be a growing thought/consensus that we're entering a quiet period but with hope before we flip fully to spring. March might be friendly to us. In March I much prefer larger events and perhaps this year will deliver. 

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nothing I hate more than cold, dry late winters. And that's looking like what we're in store for over the next 3-4 weeks, at least down here.

And windy. We never fail at winds. 

7 minutes ago, Festus said:

Slow day so here's the list of most prolific regular posters in our forum.  Apologies if I missed anyone.  In thousands rounded to the nearest hundred:

1	Bubbler86	29.6
2	mitchnick	26.1
3	Canderson	23.3
4	Itstrainingtime	19.1
5	Sauss06	13.3
6	Voyager	12.0
7	Blizzard of 93	11.6
8	Paweather	11.4
9	Pasnownut	9.5
10	ChescoWx	8.9
11	MAG5035	5.9
12	WmsptWx	5.5
13	DDweatherman	5.2
14	Jns2183	4.7
15	mahantango#1	3.9
16	Mount Joy Snowman	3.8
17	Superstorm	3.8

There are posters in other regions of this forum that have eclipsed 100,000! 

Thanks for compiling this. I'm hoping that the top 4 seeds get a first round bye. 

Lots of winter cancels in the MA region. Bob Chill is roping them back in. He seems genuinely excited for early March. That's more than good enough for me to keep hopes alive. (and he was not excited about this week despite being in a more favored area than ours)  

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Great story, are you sure Carl is not one of the older posters here? 

Your thinking of Carl Jr. 

That's my stomach calling. Lunch time! 

2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

WARNING:  This will be a long post but given the mood of the board lately, I wanted to tell a little story that I hope you'll find as joyful and rewarding as I did experiencing it.

So, our neighborhood has an old guy who walks the neighborhood every day, many times a day, without fail.  He's the type of guy who knows everyone's kids, carries treats in his pockets for all the dogs, and gives his little two finger wave to everyone he sees.  His name is Carl and it's impossible to not, at the very least, know of him.  If there were a vote for neighborhood president Carl would win in a landslide.  We are relatively new to the development so I've only ever talked to Carl maybe 5-10 times and never really in-depth.

Well, yesterday I was out checking the mail in the cold rain and Carl comes walking by, because of course he does, that's what Carl does, no matter the weather.  I shout out to him, "Hey Carl, how about those winds coming?"  That simple comment led to Carl coming over and talking to me about the weather for a good 15-20 minutes.  Turns out he is a complete weather nut like us.  I had no idea.  He told me about all the old meteorologists and professors he loved to follow, most of whom I'd never heard of ha.  He had also been a big Bastardi guy for decades and was talking about how he just watched some video of him talking about the upcoming storm potential.  I quickly realized Carl was the real deal; he was one of us.  He went on and on about all the models by name and mentioned the SER, PNA, NAO, MJO, and any other weather acronym you could think of.  He knew them all.  We bonded over the fact that we both had rain gauges and weather stations and kept detailed records of our precipitation going back decades, his much longer than mine of course.  He talked about how our wives thought we were crazy but also how they constantly needed us for weather advice.  The more we talked the more his eyes lit up.  You could feel his sense of pure joy at having someone else to talk to who loved weather as much as him.  It was palpable.

We talked and talked and talked.  He though the midweek storm was going to pull back west a bit and I told him I thought it would stay suppressed to our southeast, both of us giving a nod to the fact that in the end we had no clue where it would end up haha.  Weather led to other talk.  "Oh, you studied Statistics at Penn State?  I always had a bit of trouble with that when I was at Wharton."  Turns out he was a Penn guy.  "Oh, you tutored Stat too?  I always had a penchant for teaching others."  On and on we went, both of us just standing there in the cold rain and with no intention of the conversation ending.  He told me of some neighborhood gossip as only Carl can and then ended by saying something to the effect of, "You know, weather is what it's all about.  There's nothing greater, nothing more powerful or unpredictable.  It has an effect on everything we do and affects our most important moments.  Everything from D-Day to sporting events to weddings and funerals.  Most importantly, it humbles us."  

Finally, he smiled before giving an obligatory nod and saying "alright then" as he waved and walked away.  His gate was that of an old man.  You know the type, wobbling back'n'forth, probably from one too many injuries over the years or a replaced hip or maybe just too many miles.  It was the type of gate that just keeps on going, until one day it doesn't.  I hope to see a lot more of Carl in the future, lord knows he'll be around, and around, and around.  Moral of the story is this:  talk to your neighbors, find yourself a Carl.  You'll be better for it.  I promise.  And who knows, you may just find someone else who enjoys this crazy hobby as much as you do.  It hit me yesterday that weather means a lot more than just tracking storms or being angry when we miss out; it's what binds all of us.  I'm glad I got to meet the real Carl, and I think he was too.

What an awesome story my friend. Sometimes the best moments in life are so close to us and yet so far away. And totally unpredictable. 

Top winds:

MU Weather Center

The anticipated 50-60 mph wind gusts have certainly verified over the past 18 hours! Peak gusts reached 47 mph at York Apt, 53 mph at Harrisburg Int’l Apt, 56 mph at Reading Apt and 58 mph at Lancaster Apt.

Maytown airport: 48 mph

50 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

looks like changes to the boards OT section. 

Oh shoot - just saw it. Something must have happened. 

2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I got a taste and want to go back so much. It truly, truly is a beautiful place with so much to do, and a bad winter for them is 300". Too bad the price tag to buy is 6 grades above me.

1 minute ago, sauss06 said:

In the end, its about the journey. Some get all bent out of shape ( yinz know who i mean) the models this, the models that. yadda yadda yadda. So focused on the negatives, you don't look at the positives..............Like the sunrise Mike spoke about. or the fact none of us had major wind damage last night (not that i have read anyhow) 

Amen Jon - thank you for that. And just for you, the very latest:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIczBAWYoRk

Despite the disappointment, the sun rise on my way in this morning was glorious.  I ignored the bare ground, the relentless winds and focused on the fact that I got to cancel a meeting today. No need to plan for operations adjustment contingencies this week. 

3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Looks like a lot of disappointment today. How can some of these models that showed a lot of snow the last 2 weeks not verify? Are we expecting too much accuracy from these models 1 to 2 weeks out? I know it's only a tool but still... Well I guess it's time to move on to Spring which will be here in a few weeks. Looking forward to thunderstorms at this point.

See above. Models have improved greatly. There still only just that...models. 

I've been reading some comments that this was the worst model bust in history. Yeah...not even close:

12/26/2010: Models had much of the LSV getting anywhere from 6-18" of snow up to 6 hours prior to storm's onset. Final verdict: 0"

12/30/2000: Models had an incredible 1 to 3 FEET of snow literally leading into the storm's projected beginning. Final verdict: 0"

There were many others including March 2001. At least the rug got pulled on this at the 96 hour mark or so. 

Yeah, the AI was worlds ahead of the rest though the GFS tried to participate with it for a while. 

Top wind gust so far today at the Maytown Airport is 46mph. Top gust back on Thursday was 54mph.

I'm holding strong through 12z tomorrow. Then I'll reassess.

33 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I know more on here have not give up yet, I was just pointing out @psuhoffman being concerned that he was on the same side as JB, but now he has MU too on his side!

 Blizz, I have stood tall with you in this. I got invested over a week ago and haven't wavered.

It's going to snow.

20 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’ll be posting data soon to back this up.

Where do you stand currently?

Family in Rehoboth is at 27.8" so far.

I'll be in the office as usual. 

Top wind gust so far is 43mph.

7 minutes ago, Ruin said:

cant even get the next days weather right lol smh yeah they said 55 for me here I got to 40 and that was it down to 36 all rdy 

Today was an incredible bust - finishing between 15 and 20 degrees below forecast and I think @Bubbler86said one model had me at 67 which is 24 degrees above actual high.

God Nam!

Lots of 50-60mph winds now in western and central PA. 

7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Of course the models “should” be better but they’re not, for a whole host of reasons.  Not the least of which is that it’s really F’ing hard to predict something that operates on as grand of a scale as the Earth’s atmosphere and translate that down to the local level. What we think of as vast distances just aren’t in the grand scheme of things and the resolutions and data ingestion of the models just isn’t granular enough to produce better results. With that said, they are still correct the vast majority of the time and it’s foolish to say they aren’t far better than they were many years ago. The main issue with you is that your penchant for negativity gets unduly rewarded in a field like this, simply because there are always FAR more ways to fail than to win with these big storms.  Don’t mistake your wins for some great insight; you’re just a glass half empty guy and that’s an easy role to find fulfilling in this hobby. 

Very, very strange temperature phenomena ongoing here. At noon my reading was up to 43 and climbing steadily.

Now? It's 37!

Euro gets my family in Rehoboth past the 40" mark for the season. 

32 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The towel waving is laughable…

The Winter is over talk is laughable…

How do some of you people give up so easily?

 

31 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’m making lots of notes for when this comes back…

Everyone of us is different and each copes with disappointment in their own way. It might be frustrating when people think/act the opposite of you but at the end of the day...they're entitled to feel the way they do. 

I haven't given up. But I don't feel confident at all when one of the best Mets on the entire board basically gave up several posts back. It's hard to ignore that.