The Iceman

Yeah, i was surprised to see it spit out so much but definitely won't be 10:1.. no high in place either. I think we all agree that Wednesday is the main event, do you think we want Monday weaker or stronger?

12z CMC totals or this storm is a disappointment

Lehigh Valley, even upper bucks/montco.... 12z euro says don't give up on Monday yet either

That map deserves a 5 bun salute Would be one hell of a birthday though

I honestly didn't know the eps mean went that high after the last few winters

Stolen from Weather Will over in the Mid Atlantic Forum... Some really nice hits on the GEFS( Give me p09 and call it a winter lol) but also shows the wide range of uncertainty which is to be expected this far out. Overall though the look up top looks good for an event.

Glad I moved 20 miles north last year. Difference between 15" in Hopewell and 3" in Levittown This storm would fall on my 30th bday so I'm rooting pretty hard for it. It's never snowed over .1" on my birthday so really if we get anything, it's going to be memorable. Really liking the set up! Best one we've had in a while and just inside 7 days! Edit: Threat on the 20-21st isn't terrible either on the GFS a pretty close miss, very interested to see what the ensembles have to say on that as well.

Not confirmed... just my weenie hopes and dreams. Knowing dougie, we'll probably have to coddle Wentz for another half before Hurts gets a shot. And knowing climo, the big event next week will probably be 50% rain

That was the best moment of the Eagles season so far. Hopefully just the preview of Hurts leading this team to victory over the Saints Kinda like how tomorrow will hopefully be the preview of a real event in the next week....

Same. My entire 1.5" last year fell in that storm. Since the 2016 blizzard, met winter has been just about non existent in these parts and things don't look to be changing anytime soon. When I get some time I'll check for sure, but this has got to be one of the worst 5 year met winter stretches ever. If we don't get saved in March in both 17-18 and 18-19, we're talking about one of the worst stretches of winter ever around here.

Judging from the recent ensemble update, I would look for our next real threat to be centered in the 12/12-12/13 range. Looks like the NAO/AO rise towards neutral and the PNA dives towards negative. There tends to be an event centered around that flip. Details this far out as far as any specific event are useless but hopefully we will have a better stock of cold air in place for it. That's the time period I'm most hopeful at this time anyway for now. Also have to hope that rise in the AO/NAO region is short lived because with a strong Nina, a +PNA for a significant amount of time was always highly unlikely. We really need the atlantic to cooperate or it's going to be rough...

Going to echo what Ralph said earlier and hope that this weekend's storm is just a sign of what's to come storm track wise. Going to be painful to watch pretty much a perfect track still end in a fail here because of the lack of cold air. Euro still showing the potential to end as some flakes to maybe a coating for the NW burbs and pocono's.

Poconos get rocked on the 12z euro. Almost everyone sees some flakes though. This is pretty much the best case scenario for this week imo. That 50/50 high isn't going to allow it to escape much further off the coast.

Yep, I took a break over the holidays from model watching, hoping the good looks we saw last week advanced in time and showed signs of lasting... nope. Instead it looks like we get a brief period of -ao/-nao/+pna with a longshot opportunity around the 9-10th(and we still don't have a real cold source for that) then we slide into typical Nina climo. It's what I was worried about when people were calling for a front loaded winter. We'd strike out because even above average looks can be hard to materialize in December. Then we'd waste our prime climo on the typical nina pac puke look. Hopefully that nina look is just as transient as our favorable period and we flip flop throughout winter, but I have my doubts. I can totally see the pattern changing again the 3rd week of Dec and not looking back..

Mods feel free to move if this isn't in the right place but I'm just looking for some advice. Right now I'm in a pretty comfy job that is unfortunately very unfulfilling even though I have amazing benefits. I was a met major originally back in college but switched to environmental geography after about 40 credits because I admittedly was smoking too much pot/ doing other things and found that geography was easier and I didn't want to put in the work for meteorology. The only job I could find out of college was in a field completely unrelated to the environment or mapping. I'm actually in accounting now and it's just because it was the easiest/first job available. This has been the theme of my 20's and honestly I'm ready for a change. I was plagued by addiction until I was 25 and have been living sober for almost 5 years now. I just feel like I'm mature enough now to follow my passion this time and complete the major. My worries are how realistic would it be for a school to even take me now? And what would job prospects look like for someone just graduating with a met degree in their mid 30's? Can anyone here offer any guidance or other advice? I'm open to all suggestion even if it's against my goal.

I went through and counted the filtered tornado reports on the spc website and I believe there are only 51 tornado reports nation wide so far this month. Has to be on pace for some kind of record? Can anyone chime in?

did you see the wrf meso's? all have 95 frozen throughout. war of the globals vs meso's. I think this has good bust potential especially if mt holly sides with the globals.

HRRR continuing to show 95 all snow.

imo the rates shown dynamically cool the surface so even though it shows rain on the map, it's actually heavy wet snow or sleet.

we just got NAM'd for tonight into tomorrow

I had a feeling this one would sneak up even on SE PA. even the warmer models are only showing rain at 33-34. with the snowpack this morning, things could easily be a few degrees colder. good to see the mesos picking up on this.

Couldn't have said it better. Having met Ray before at the Eastern conferences and reading his posts for 10+ years now, I have zero doubt that his measurement was legit. He's as huge a weenie as any but seriously one of the best amateur mets on the entire board(along with yourself). I trust his measurement much more than any john q public report that stuck a ruler in the grass at the end of the storm and called it a day. Now if this total was coming from a certain mountain in Tolland, CT, I'd be skeptical ...

Seems like SW NH was one of the big losers yesterday. My uncle said he finished with 8" in Swanzey. Congrats to all that hit the 30" mark!

My aunt and uncle's house has some elevation in the Keene area(Swanzey) and they too look like they are going to severely underperform on this one. As of 1 PM he said they have light snow with 2.5" on the day on grassy surfaces but on everything else it's basically white rain and has been since 8 or 9 this morning. They were forecasted 12-18". Radar doesn't look promising either for them to even come close to that. They are stuck in that screw zone sandwiched in between that band in VT that looks upslope enhanced and the death band in the SE part of NH through MA that doesn't look to get west enough to hit them. It actually looks like they'll be lucky to see 6"... This same thing happened back in the mid-late 2000's(I want to say 2005 or 2006) when I was up there for an event. I'll have to remember the exact date but it had to be a late December storm because I was up there for Christmas. Forecast was 14-18" with the possibility of 2ft but the same banding structure as pretty much today evolved and we got I think 7 or 8 inches on like 20 hours of light snow. Since it is mid march this time though, light snow won't really accumulate much during the day even if it is below freezing.