The Iceman

Mixing still means frozen. I don't think rain will be an issue with that high in place. Some sleet though? Definitely something we will need to watch.

Yeah coastal areas will probably see rain but that was always the case. There may be a sneaky warm layer we will have to look out for as we get closer if the tucked into the coast members verify.. warm ocean temps may lead to some sleet but I don't know that for sure. Just based more on experience around here. Lows tucked into the coast typically have mixing issues further nw than progged. However we have a high in just about the perfect place. I'm pretty giddy tbh. My expectations are set at warning level(6") and it's looking great for at least that for 95 n and w.

Its actually a miller B but it develops far enough south that we should avoid the classic "screw zone". Honestly there just isn't a lot to pick at negative right now. Very cautiously optimistic but this seems like a text book warning level event for most of the area at minimum. Remember the big ones are usually modeled well in advance.

I weenied up and got a weather model.com subscription just to get the 18z euro... Shows snow down to 95 now for Monday.

Yeah, i was surprised to see it spit out so much but definitely won't be 10:1.. no high in place either. I think we all agree that Wednesday is the main event, do you think we want Monday weaker or stronger?

12z CMC totals or this storm is a disappointment

Lehigh Valley, even upper bucks/montco.... 12z euro says don't give up on Monday yet either

That map deserves a 5 bun salute Would be one hell of a birthday though

I honestly didn't know the eps mean went that high after the last few winters

Stolen from Weather Will over in the Mid Atlantic Forum... Some really nice hits on the GEFS( Give me p09 and call it a winter lol) but also shows the wide range of uncertainty which is to be expected this far out. Overall though the look up top looks good for an event.

Glad I moved 20 miles north last year. Difference between 15" in Hopewell and 3" in Levittown This storm would fall on my 30th bday so I'm rooting pretty hard for it. It's never snowed over .1" on my birthday so really if we get anything, it's going to be memorable. Really liking the set up! Best one we've had in a while and just inside 7 days! Edit: Threat on the 20-21st isn't terrible either on the GFS a pretty close miss, very interested to see what the ensembles have to say on that as well.

Not confirmed... just my weenie hopes and dreams. Knowing dougie, we'll probably have to coddle Wentz for another half before Hurts gets a shot. And knowing climo, the big event next week will probably be 50% rain

That was the best moment of the Eagles season so far. Hopefully just the preview of Hurts leading this team to victory over the Saints Kinda like how tomorrow will hopefully be the preview of a real event in the next week....

Same. My entire 1.5" last year fell in that storm. Since the 2016 blizzard, met winter has been just about non existent in these parts and things don't look to be changing anytime soon. When I get some time I'll check for sure, but this has got to be one of the worst 5 year met winter stretches ever. If we don't get saved in March in both 17-18 and 18-19, we're talking about one of the worst stretches of winter ever around here.

Judging from the recent ensemble update, I would look for our next real threat to be centered in the 12/12-12/13 range. Looks like the NAO/AO rise towards neutral and the PNA dives towards negative. There tends to be an event centered around that flip. Details this far out as far as any specific event are useless but hopefully we will have a better stock of cold air in place for it. That's the time period I'm most hopeful at this time anyway for now. Also have to hope that rise in the AO/NAO region is short lived because with a strong Nina, a +PNA for a significant amount of time was always highly unlikely. We really need the atlantic to cooperate or it's going to be rough...

Going to echo what Ralph said earlier and hope that this weekend's storm is just a sign of what's to come storm track wise. Going to be painful to watch pretty much a perfect track still end in a fail here because of the lack of cold air. Euro still showing the potential to end as some flakes to maybe a coating for the NW burbs and pocono's.

Poconos get rocked on the 12z euro. Almost everyone sees some flakes though. This is pretty much the best case scenario for this week imo. That 50/50 high isn't going to allow it to escape much further off the coast.

Yep, I took a break over the holidays from model watching, hoping the good looks we saw last week advanced in time and showed signs of lasting... nope. Instead it looks like we get a brief period of -ao/-nao/+pna with a longshot opportunity around the 9-10th(and we still don't have a real cold source for that) then we slide into typical Nina climo. It's what I was worried about when people were calling for a front loaded winter. We'd strike out because even above average looks can be hard to materialize in December. Then we'd waste our prime climo on the typical nina pac puke look. Hopefully that nina look is just as transient as our favorable period and we flip flop throughout winter, but I have my doubts. I can totally see the pattern changing again the 3rd week of Dec and not looking back..

Given my expectations are zero, I'd say that's a good bet All I really want is a warning level event(6"), and this winter would be cool in my book.

Recorded my first "trace" this morning with some flurry action on the way to work.

Reading around the winter forecasts released so far, it seems like the general agreement is our best shot to score is going to come in the first half of winter. Almost everyone is in agreement that Feb will be a blowtorch which is usually our biggest snow month based on climo so that alone means we're likely heading for below normal. Honestly if we finish between 10-20" on the year with most of that coming in the Dec-Jan timeframe, I'd call this year a win. Expectations are set super low this year. After last years blanking, any snow will be a win. The thought of back to back winters with single digit snow totals is depressing...

@Ralph Wiggum you doing a winter forecast this year? Always enjoy reading your thoughts.

1.07" at home in Hopewell so far. Round 1 looks like it'll be out of here before 6 or so.

For shit's and giggles I dug through every time in snowed in PHL in October since 1884 and the corresponding winter totals. Outside of the 2 duds(72-73 and 11-12), it's actually fairly encouraging albeit a very small sample size. So it has snowed(T or more) 15 times in October in PHL since 1884. However it has only snowed in October 4 times in the last 50 years(1970) and it just so happened 2 of the worst winters ever in these parts corresponded with October snow. Most snowfall in a following winter was 41.8" in 1957-1958 Least was Trace(0) in 1972-1973. Median of those 15 years was 20.9", right around average. Mean of those 15 years was 22.3", a little above average. So even the small sample size doesn't really even point in the direction of October Snow = Winter Cancel. I'm sure someone else can dig through the record for NYC but I bet they'd be similar.

For shit's and giggles I dug through every time in snowed at PHL in October since 1884 and the corresponding winter totals. Outside of the 2 duds(72-73 and 11-12), it's actually fairly encouraging albeit a very small sample size. So it has snowed(T or more) 15 times in October at PHL since 1884. Most snowfall in a following winter was 41.8" in 1957-1958 Least was Trace(0) in 1972-1973. Median of those 15 years was 20.9", right around average. Mean of those 15 years was 22.3", a little above average.