The Iceman
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Everything posted by The Iceman
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2.1" on the storm after the heavy shower today and rain last night. 7.2" on the month now in Levittown. Drove by the river coming home from work and it was pretty high. Looks like it'll crest just below flood stage but it was cool to look at with the fast flow and debris in the water. -
Rain started back up again about an hour ago, nothing heavy, just steady. .1" so far tonight. Wondering if some of those heavy echoes currently in Lehigh valley and Poconos will rotate down this way overnight. They look to be getting slammed though, some places with already 4-5"+ and no sign of letting up either. I think chances of some river flooding, albeit minor, have definitely increased. That's a pretty large area seeing 2-5"+ of rain in a pretty short period of time. Pretty much the entire length of the Delaware river in pa/NJ down to the tidal region is over 2" of rain and at least another inch+ still to go.
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Upstream Delaware river basin is getting dumped on right now. They missed last night thankfully but looks like that batch of heavy rain is going to park up there tonight. Looking like that widespread 2-4" could verify. Could bring some hydo issues Tuesday along the river.
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Some of the models show an additional 1-2" overnight for much of the area as the precip pivots around the low in NY. They're also showing widespread 2-4"+ in the Delaware river headwaters. Will be interesting to see how much it rises on Monday. Right now Mt Holly thinks it will crest just below flood stage but I believe it can change if some of those widespread 2-4" totals verify in NW NJ/NE PA/SNY.
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Pretty crazy how the really heavy totals cut off right at the Delaware river.
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Rain tapering off now, just some sprinkles now. 1.4", looks like that's it for now.
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1.25" overnight, currently steady rain which looks to have been the case for much of the night. Maybe will see some heavy stuff this morning as it pivots?
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Rain beginning to pick up in Levittown. Nothing heavy yet but a steady moderate rain.
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Light rain on and off the last hour in Levittown. Heavier returns beginning to make their way on shore now. Going to be an interesting next few hours.
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This area circled looks like they are going to be slammed. 2-4" with locally more imo
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The models that were further west yesterday had Henri much stronger than it is currently. It's clear that it's lack of rapid strengthening which was forecasted to occur overnight never happened and with a weaker system the storm shifted east. It honestly doesn't even look that great this morning. Should still see some showers/period of rain but the flood threat seems pretty minimal now in these parts despite the watch. Edit: 06z icon and nam but show flooding rains for se pa but I wont be surprised if that area ticks north with time due to the further east track. I think it ends up coming it at RI.
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Meanwhile the FV-3(I believe it is taking over for the NAM soon) slams into NYC after being at the end of LI at 12z. Seems like the mesos are intent on the storm getting captured but the globals aren't biting yet. Think it comes down to how strong it gets the next 12-18 hours.
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EPS shifted west again though. Many members like the CMC/ICON. Interesting. Huge spread though for 60 hours out.
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18Z NAM shifted east again. Wonder if it is picking up on a weaker system? Henri really needs to start getting his act together tonight or the little shot we have is going bye bye. Need a stronger system to get pulled back west. If it stays disorganized, I think we will see a shift back towards the east unfortunately. Debating taking a trip up to CT or LI on Sunday depending where the track narrows.
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Will be very interesting to see the 12z EPS members. 06z shifted west towards LI while the OP was still more towards RI/Mass and the 12z run followed suite. If the west trend continues at 12z with the EPS, there's a much more realistic shot of this storm effecting the area with at least heavy rain.
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significant shift west by the Euro at 12z. 00z hit Mass... 12z is into LI. Another shift like that at 00z and it's very similar to the UKIE.
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If the UKIE happens, some of us will need a bigger boat...
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GEFS doesn't have any members with NJ landfalls, but a decent amount loop the system back into our area which would bring the heavy rain threat like the CMC/RGEM/ICON all show.
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CMC joins the rain train
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The HRRR shows this. It also tucks the storm just E of NYC. Would be tons of rain for NJ and SE PA if that occurs. But it's also the HRRR so...
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Yikes, that blob of 6"+ rain is right over my house. With already over 5" on the month, that would devastating around here flooding wise. Won't take much at all to get the creeks and streams around here over their banks with all the rain recently.
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Seems like you're in a relative screw zone with rainfall in SE PA. I'm over 5" on the month now with many places near me also above 4". Delaware county has been in a rain hole this month.
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Picked up 1.6" last night, light show was tremendous though. We had some good booms from just after midnight until about 230 am. Needless to say didn't get much sleep between the tor warnings going off on my phone and flash flood warnings. Felt like the storm was on top of us for hours based on the lightning/thunder but it really only downpoured for 30 mins or so.
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12z GEFS is pretty interesting wrt Henri. There's a cluster of members that bring it into the Jersey shore now. Big time west trend over the last 24 hours. The storm looks to be getting it's act together now. Seems like the stronger members are further west while the weaker one's stay off to the east. Who here has a shore house I can ride out the storm at
