The Iceman
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Everything posted by The Iceman
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Trending towards the typical thump to mix ending as drizzle even with the track as west as it is. The majority of precip is looking frozen and should remain that way as long as that high stays in that position. NW of the fall line will do better but pretty classic CAD signature showing up at this time frame is encouraging, that typically gets stronger and more pronounced with time. Could be a solid event from 95 N and W. Potential for Lehigh valley to see their biggest event of the year.
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68F out, can we hit 70?
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upcoming pattern late month into early March is kinda similar to March 15... heights are more focused in the Alaska domain though which should provide more cold air... we made out like bandits during that time period
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It's going to be a warm one today, already sitting at 58F at 9 am. Something tells me we are going to go above the projected high of 66F today and make a run at 70F.
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Looking ahead, the 2nd half of the month warm up looks to be short lived. If we can head into the beginning of march with this look below, winter almost certainly hasn't shown it's last hand. We'd have a cold air source to work with even though we still don't have blocking. -NAO becomes less important in March with shorter wavelengths, most important thing is to have cold air in place which would be the case with the -EPO.
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I love the dedication! -
Bottomed out at 15F last night. After yesterday I'm up to 17.25" on the year, about 6 inches below normal seasonal snowfall. Next 2 weeks look pretty bleak but if we can get one or two minor-moderate events in March, we could certainly hit normal snowfall in these parts; something that has never happened in a 2nd year moderate-strong nina.
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Somehow still snowing here in lower bucks. Roads are starting to get slick. Be careful everyone coming home from their super bowl parties.
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Down to light snow now but we managed to squeeze out .2” over the last two hours to settle at 3” even on the grass in Levittown. Not expecting any more accumulation as heavier echoes have moved east. Great little storm!
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Slowly but surely still accumulating in Levittown faster than melting. Just under 3” on the event, 2.8” officially. Still snowing light-moderate at times. Hope we can hit 3”. Beautiful day outside regardless.
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Fwiw the HRRR doesn’t taper things off in SE PA until 5 or 6 pm this evening adding up possibly another inch. But we are kind of just plateau’d right now at 2.2” despite being under a decent band because of the temps and sun melting things as fast as it falls. Still a very nice winter day and expectations have been smashed down this way especially with how warm it has been the last few days. Wiggum rule ftw…
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Back to mod snow over the last hour. Up to 2.2” here in Levittown.
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Looks like barring redevelopment snow should be pretty much over soon? Looks between 1.5- 2” here all on grassy/cold surfaces. Side roads have a layer of slush beginning to build but mostly just wet. Looks like the heaviest rates set up well n and w of 95 as some meso guidance was hinting last night.
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Had a sleet shower move through a little bit ago, waiting on the next batch. Temp down to 40 which is actually colder than the HRRR has us.
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HRRR just keeps getting better and better every hour.. bulk of the accumulation falls between the early morning hours until around 9 am but it keeps light snow in SE PA well into the afternoon…
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Temp down to 45 here but feels colder.
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Temps won’t matter if this thump comes to fruition. Bulk of the heaviest stuff falls overnight into early morning, I’m actually feeling pretty good about this one.
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Nam never fails inside 24 hours, lock it in.
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Flower show will be cancelled this year due to the massive Haboob’s blowing in from the Lehigh valley. The wildfires up there block out the sun for a time. Delaware river runs dry by June. Tough times ahead.
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There is a jet streak right over the area providing extra lift as the precip develops. Agreed it isn’t that juicy of a system but that should enhance rates for a time.
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2-4” for most on the latest HREF mean: 4-6 on the ensemble max: I think mt holly will issue advisories on the afternoon update unless they really think it’s going to have trouble sticking due to the recent high temps.
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Well it is the Herp a Derp and it’s cousin the HURRR so I wouldn’t count my chickens just yet but if I see 2” out of this system I’m counting it as an epic win.
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Mt holly seems to think paved surfaces should retain most of their warmth from today hence why there are no winter weather advisory’s. I think 1-3” on grassy surfaces seems to be a good bet though. Hope the HRRR and other meso guidance ends up being correct and some areas see lollis of 4”. Should be nice to wake up to snow for possibly the last time this winter.
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18z were pretty juiced for tomorrow nights event. Walt up in the nyc thread said it’s likely in response to the jet streak over head and the models are picking up on more precip due to that. Looking more likely that most of us in SE PA and especially NJ will see more like 1-2” with possible lollis up to 3-4” in spots as opposed to C-1” white rain. Should at least be a nice wintry day on super bowl Sunday. Let’s keep the trend going at 00z and get this baby to 2-4”/solid advisory level. Keep hope alive!
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I’ve skied this time of the year in a driving rain storm on that mountain. It isn’t ideal but as long as they have a good base up there, the skiing should still be okay. Glades will probably be closed but their main trails usually stand up pretty good in the rain. I haven’t checked their conditions in awhile recently though, not sure if they are having as rough of a winter as we are.
