The Iceman

Heavy bag of wtf going on outside right now. Sleet, wet snow, maybe a little rain thrown in too? Coming down hard though. Layer of slush on cold surfaces. 35F.

HRRR 10:1 maps vs model ratio Not much difference in the lehigh valley where temps are going to be colder but down by 95 and the burbs, ratio's are only like 5:1/6:1 despite the heavy precip. That could still be dense enough to cause some issues on trees/powerlines.

for some reason, I don't believe there's going to be 5.6" in a hour in Burlington county tomorrow...

Great map, pretty much how I feel as well except I would probably make the 1-2" zone a c - 2", I'm still not convinced accumulating snow makes it to 95 despite some of the clown maps.

I have zero expectations along 95. Would be nice to squeeze out an inch or two but not expecting more than white rain. Lehigh valley looks solid though I still don't think those maps of 6-8" verify with it falling during the day. It will have to be snowing hard for that to happen despite the temps.

Euro blew chunks with the system today and it's on its own right now. I'd be weary especially with such a delicate set up, like most rain -> snow events are. Model's have been terrible with pushing the cold air in too quickly this season. When the GFS is showing it further NW, which has typically overdone the cold the most this year, it's a hard sell imo. You guys likely see snow, but I wouldn't expect more than a inch or two at this time.

Light rain and 41F at work in Trenton. Funny enough one of the roads I traveled to get to work had been salted... Municipalities must be itching to burn off their rock salt...Not expecting more than a few mangled flakes here.

I believe it, those winds were fierce as the line moved through in Levittown. Easily 50 MPH at least. Luckily there's no foliage yet so damage was minimal other than trash cans strewn about.

2 weeks ago this upcoming storm would have been a solid 4-6" region wide. Of course we finally get a great track and boundary level temps are scorching on top of the increased sun angle. Not expecting more than snow TV with maybe a slushy inch on the grass that is gone by the end of the day.

Agree with Mt Holly's maps. There's just no way we are seeing 4-6" like the 10:1 maps spit out after temps being in the 70's and temps remaining above freezing during the event. I wouldn't rule out a slushy inch or two though if the rates on the NAM verify. Use the snow depth maps and not the 10:1 maps on model output, it's a much more realistic outcome for this storm.

I think the first 10 days of this month will be snowless. A better pattern may establish itself after the 10th-15th but by then, you really need a lot of things to go right in order to get a decent event that isn't white rain. I wouldn't totally say winter is over but it's likely on life support. Would be nice to see a 6" storm to get me to average though. Hope for a weak Nino next winter...

I'd give DJF a solid C in my area. I didn't have much hope for this year and really thought we'd struggle to get to double digit snowfall so 17" was more than I anticipated. December sucked, I give that a F. I'd give Jan a solid B maybe even B+ with it being above average snowfall wise(one warning level event and one high end advisory event) and below average temps. February largely sucked outside of the advisory level super bowl Sunday storm which brought it up to a D. If we missed that storm though, I'd give it a F. Overall though I thought this winter could have gone a lot worse along 95. I can totally understand those of you in the N and W for thinking it's a D/F winter. This was a really weird season, not too many times you see SNJ get 30+" and the Lehigh valley sees around 10".

I still think the 9-10th time period bares watching. Secondary wave riding the boundary, high pressure is a good spot this time, but it's far from a slam dunk look. If it amplifies too much we flip to rain and if it doesn't amplify enough it slides harmlessly SE. Thread the needle set up, what else is new? Would be somewhat rare though to not get a single threat or even just flakes flying in March and overall cold air is still on the continent.

Crazy the difference 5-10 miles makes in these storms. Was pretty much just a cold rain storm down here in lower bucks. No real accretion despite temps hanging between 30-32 all night.

Next and possibly final period to watch this winter is going to be in the 3/8-3/13 time period. Similar set up as this storm that just passed but with better ridging in Greenland and in the AO region. If we are going to score this month, it's going to be from a follow up wave from one of these cutters that times with the cold air. First week of March looks like snoozeville though, doesn't look all that warm though save for a day or two.

Temp is down to 29.8 but the rain is too heavy and it’s just running off of everything. Warm temps leading in, definitely a factor. Don’t think we will see much accretion down here even though we are colder than progged. Areas n and w will probably see some issues on vegetation but I’m still pretty skeptical roads will have problems save for maybe far NW areas. Rain is going to be too heavy for that glaze to form on the roadways. Areas that start as snow/sleet and get a little sleet accumulation down may see some issues though.

Wow mostly sleet, not much freezing rain for anyone. That’d be good news.

30F/18 DP. A bit colder than the forecasted low of 33.

Currently 66F, some 70 degree readings popping up in S Jersey.

Already up to 60F. Cloud cover though may be the only thing preventing us from hitting 70 today. If the sun pops out, I think some area's especially around the city top 70 today.

Just my opinion, but I think this will be mainly rain for the 95 corridor. Don't think it will accrete too much even if the temp hovers around 31-32. Temps going to be 70 today and we don't fall below freezing until the event really starts and even then it's going to be 30-32F. Add in the heavy precip rates, and I just don't see much ice accretion on anything but especially pavement. Lehigh Valley/Pocono's is a different story, I'd be concerned if I lived up there.

Temp went to 42 down to 31 and easily had a 50 mph gust with that squall. Whitened the ground too. Neat little event.

Very true, gfs is likely overdoing the cold air push, however I still think this system will be more frozen than liquid. CAD should hold up well with that strong high to the N. Leaning towards more sleet than anything though right now for the 95 area and suburbs. Still an eternity out in time but right now, 1-3” snow thump to sleet to light rain/drizzle seems like a fair guess. Looks like a Lehigh valley special at this moment though they also likely change to sleet too, just think they will very likely be all frozen unless the models are way off with that high strength or position.

Flizzard conditions going on outside right now. Wiggum rule strikes again.