The Iceman

That’s fine by me. Stupid cold with a bare ground and no hope of snow just sucks. Hopefully it moderates to just slightly below freezing by the weekend then we slide into early spring the next week. Take this winter to the wood chipper. I’m ready for golf, fishing, and gardening.

I didn’t even get the pity flakes. I’m ready for the warm up, let’s just get through this weekend then hopefully early spring. I’ve accepted it just ain’t going to snow this year. That bastard groundhog better not see his shadow…

I’ve ski’d up there in below zero temps before and really the only time it really got to me was if there was 20+ mph winds on top of it. It doesn’t look like that will be the case at least for now. Layer up to the max and it should be manageable. Nothing a couple hand/feet warmers can’t fix.

Hurts needs to be much better in 2 weeks. Idk if it was the wind or what but he had 3+ overthrows that should have been big plays. You know Mahomes is going to make those, we need Jalen to keep pace with him. I feel we have a huge advantage defensively but they have a slight advantage offensively. Go Birds! I’d take no snow this year for another super bowl.

I had low expectations going into this winter as I pretty much thought below normal snow/ above normal temps for a variety of reasons but I really didn’t anticipate another all time ratter so close to 2019-2020. This area occasionally gets complete ratters(I’m talking <5 inches) but that interval is typically once a decade. Usually even a crappy winter has 10” of snow. To have 2 all time snowless winters in a 4 year period is unprecedented. Who knows maybe March will save the day, I’m not counting on it though.

2019-2020 redux

Complete nonsense that the 49ers are better in "all phases of the game". Eagles have a significant advantage in the secondary which only grows wider if Maddox plays, a much deeper Dline (70 sacks this year compared to 44 for SF, 18.5 of which were Bosa alone), and by far the best offensive line in football. 49ers have an advantage at linebacker and running back and that's really it. Philly has been the better team all year and the only way Philly loses is if they beat themselves with turnovers. And that would still be the case if Jimmy G or Trey Lance were playing. People just can't accept the fact that the Eagles are one of the best and most complete teams in football this year. You'd think Giants fans would finally see the light after trying to convince themselves that last week would be a "close game".

It'll be "congrats Chicago" in 2 day's like the current CMC. Seriously though I think the 2 most likely scenario's are going to be either cutter or suppressed with the complete lack of blocking on the atlantic side. It's kind of a thread the needle situation for an all snow event because of that. It's probably our best chance in awhile though. Much better airmass in place though so if it cuts, should see a decent thump of snow/ice before the rain.

1.3" of complete rain yesterday. Not even a pity flake. 4.4" on the month now, certainly hasn't been dry...

Looks like wave after wave of rain coming in the long range as the SE ridge flexes and won’t be denied. Wake me up in spring, hopefully this storm track stays in place so it’s a good severe season. I think philly and immediate burbs are going to pitch a shutout in the snowfall department this year.

12z euro only cut 95's snowfall down to .3" on Wednesday, down from 3-5"" at 00z. Can't say I didn't see it coming... GFS/NAM now are the snowiest models for 95 with 2". The rest have pity flakes to rain. GFS/NAM will probably come around to that soon. Edit: was actually looking at 12z nam. 18z is snowless for pretty much everyone but the lehigh valley. So GFS on it's own....

25”? That’s a hell of a gradient!

Looks like the changeover line passed through on CC but still all rain here

Have seen more lightning than snowflakes this January.

I see I didn't miss much the last 5 days... I guess I'll check back in another 5 days and see if anything has changed for the better. I've basically punted on this winter at least down here around 95, hoping to see at least one WWA level event, but not holding my breath. If you live in the N and W burbs though, there's a solid chance 1 of the next 3 storms delivers though at least a decent thump.

Nice strong HP in a place where we want it, in late January, and it's still too warm for 95

Exactly what it reminds me of as well. -EPO/-AO/+NAO. It's a solid pattern as long as you are set up south of the boundary. 2014 produced high end WWA/low end WSW events over and over again and even the cutters were thumps to rain. Not good for high end events but I think most would enjoy a 2-3 week period of multiple 3-6" type storms over one and done anyway. Just want that ridge out west to set up a bit further east so that we are S of the boundary.

I don't get that vibe at all from the projected pattern in the long range from the ensembles. Looks more like a gradient/overrunning pattern where anything strong will cut but weak lows will ride along the boundary. If the boundary sets up north of us, we are fooked as DT would say but if it sets up S of us we could see several moderate events in quick succession until the pattern breaks down again. I don't really see "the big one" potential then warm up like we had in December. Ensembles show a lot of cold air on our side of the continent late month to work with, it will just depend if it bleeds east enough.

While it's encouraging to see the looks in the long range progress, I want to see it get into the day 5 range and see what the long range looks like then. For all we know, this pattern change could last a week or two and shift back into where we are now. While that's still better than wall to wall pac puke pattern, I'm still skeptical we are in for a backloaded winter. I think it's more likely is a a 1-2 week window where we will have chances to score then we go through the cycle again especially with Nina climo in February.

7"? You did well that winter. I had 1.5". PHL had .3"

Gfs doesn’t even have the 2nd storm. This is going to be the time where it actually leads the way despite being a dumpster fire all season long in the mid range.

Too warm for an overnight event with a weak low passing south of us during what should be the coldest time of the year. Our climate truly is broken.

Its way too early to cancel winter but I will say it’s pretty eerie how similar this winter is playing out like 2019-2020. Got cold in December but didn’t have the storm tracks so we were warm/wet then cool/dry. PAC air flooded the continent by the end of December into January and we had a lucky c-2” event at the beginning of January then nothing else. Now we have a c-2” event Sunday and nothing on the horizon. Pattern changes were teased in long range for weeks on end but never materialized until mid-late March. We have the models showing hope again now for late month with a workable pattern but given the large scale changes we see in the day 7-10 range right now, it’s impossible to have confidence beyond that. Hopefully things play out better than 19-20 we also got incredibly unlucky a few times that season but the similarities thus far are striking imo.

12z euro for the 14th system is uglyyyyy. night and day from the GFS/CMC. Looks like it's going to be a straight cutter west of chicago. Probably going to lead the charge again like it did for the Christmas system sadly. Still wants nothing to do with the sunday/monday light event too. True Dr.No style.

The problem is that there's just not enough cold air in place nor is there a source to tap into as you said above. Outside of a thread the needle situation or full phase/manufactured cold, this one is going to struggle to snow in SE PA unless we see some big changes to the airmass in the coming days.