WestMichigan

12Z Euro for Saturday at 00Z had a low NE of Piqua, OH then the 00Z run at the same time had it off the North Carolina coast. Just your casual everyday 4 state shift.

Thankfully only about 0.2" or so of ice here.

We have between 0.1" and 0.2" of ice with some sleet mixed in. Not as bad as other places in MI but several more hours to go also so I guess we will wait and see what it looks like in the morning.

Models really want to wind something up the first week of March. Only 8 more days to go before it turns into a shell of its original self and someone gets 6" or less.

GFS hitting the I-94 corridor pretty hard with freezing rain. Hope it isn't as bad as it implies or that area is going to be a real mess.

The new guy at GRR provides some entertaining AFDs for sure. While there remains questions where the only answers lie in some undiscovered country, there will remain impactful precipitation through the daytime and through at least the first half of Wednesday night.

That has been the theme for most storms this winter. QPF gets cuts back over time.

I'd take sleet over a significant amount of freezing rain any day.

I think the new guy at GRR went to the Typhoon Tip school of meteorlogy There remains some questions on timing and of precipitation type. The passing of the torch from the long range models to the mid range models does not come without its complications. To ice or not to ice, that is the question. That question rests upon the variables of timing, QPF and temperature. The latest ensembles have incorporated the NAM, which has the warmer air trending northward. This could supplant the colder air and allow for less probability for ice to form. This is most prevalent in Van Buren county which the timing for ice wanes. The precipitation that comes at us like slings and arrows makes us briefly question whether how much of a magna glacies tempestas, great ice storm, there will be.

Is this January or early March?

Canadian isn't too far off the GFS, but the NAM and short range models are way north.

Not sure who is writing the GRR AFDs lately but they have had some good ones.

Just had one of those. Almost 2" of maybe 3:1 concrete is still sitting on my driveway. I think I am going to wait for it to melt out before the next round of ice hits.

Hard pass on that junk. Hoping nobody has to deal with that much ice.

95% sleet today. Roads are an absolute mess of frozen ice ruts.

Enough to make hardypalmguy cry since he will be on the colder side of that gradient.

I am not talking 50-75 miles, I am thinking 5-10 miles will make a significant difference based on the 0Z/6Z model runs.

Models seem to want to split Ottawa County in half and it looks like I am in the wrong half. I guess we will have to wait and see since the difference of a few miles might make a significant difference with the snow line.

GRR is thinking some higher amounts also but held off on any advisories/watches also. Farther north...roughly north of a Grand Haven to Mount Pleasant line, we`re looking at all snow. Decent fgen was noted in the 850- 700mb layer from 18z Thursday to 00z Friday and this roughly coincides with the trowal axis. It`s certainly possible we could see 6-8 inches of snow in this area prior to the snow ending Thursday night.

WWBB or a different one?

Since Beavis brought up puddles, I had 1.14" of rain today.

Fruit farmers are not going to like this one bit. Maple syrup is also going to have a really short season if this holds.

You just described my winter so far this year and I can say it is nice in short periods and fairly pathetic at how fast it melts. I'd take your second scenario for sure.

That wind would be brutal at those temperatures.

Shows that it doesn't have to be wal to wall cold, just cold enough at the right time to get snow.