You just described my winter so far this year and I can say it is nice in short periods and fairly pathetic at how fast it melts. I'd take your second scenario for sure.
Sure didn't feel that snowy with the constant warms up that followed the larger snows. Also, interesting how Grand Rapids was below normal and Muskegon and Lansing had their 11th warmest.
GRR has you in the 12-18" total by the time it ends. I wouldn't give up yet. Stacking pixie dust here at a reasonable rate. Drifting is starting and when the winds pick up it will be crazy outside for sure.
It is the battle of the 1" or under QPF models (GPDS and ECMWF) vs those over 1" (GFS, UKMET, and even at 84 hours the NAM). I wonder which one(s) will win. Two very different scenarios on the map at this point.