That would be the result 90+% of the time. If we are talking baseball sized hail like what is happening right now to the west of us then I am all for lake suppression.
At 1155 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Brunswick, or 9 miles north of Slater, moving northeast at 70 mph.
These storms are moving fast. Going to make chasing rather challenging for those who go out.
We had that recently with approximately 12" of snow that completely melted off the driveway by evening. Warm ground and the right daytime conditions can make an amazing amount of snow disappear in a day.
This was an odd way of looking at this year's snowfall put out by a local TV station. Interesting how much the weekends were favored. https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/seasonal-snowfall-2023/vi-AA195Iqx?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=1eb9ec360a6143a9a0b7b4660fcd0ccc&ei=14
On a different note, this is looking better that it has in a very long time. Maybe we can reduce the possibility of torching this summer if this keeps up.
6Z GFS is saying the SE trend is alive and well. The 6Z NAM has a different approach and the snow band goes more NE whereas the GFS doesn't cut as hard to the NW. The NAM 3kM is closer to the GFS solution. THE RAP AND HRRR are somewhere in between the two models. You would think being about 24 hours out there would be better consensus at this point....
Yeah, the overnight band saved us from a potential underperformer given the hype. The general area finished with about 4" give or take a little. Enough to put GRR at #3 all time. 6.8" more puts us at #2 overall. It is interesting that we have had more snow in March than January and February combined.
Yesterday morning they did throw you a bone.
In general, this looks to be a 1"-4" event
from U.S. 131 to the west, plus the addition of Calhoun County.
Before today's snow I believe GRR is sitting at #7 on the all time snowiest winter list. With all the melting in between you would never have guessed that. It has been a winter of a few significant events and very little snowcover overall.
Like I said it may be wrong, but at least it is consistent. I agree that the NAM may be off its rocker but since there has been a lot of complaining about model waffling I thought I would show one that wasn't.