WestMichigan

Pulled off just over 3” of pure fluff today. Pretty good considering the forecast was for basically zero.

It always does. Every single year it warms up. Just be patient.

That is cold!

Just saw in the NE Ohio observation thread the Orrville just went over to sleet/zr. I was hoping things were trending away from that for you guys.

Finished with about 5" here. Exceeded my expectations for sure.

Quite the comeback after such a late first 1" of the season.

Fun to see the Ohio crew looking forward to something. I miss my days in Hilliard of riding the rain/freezing rain/sleet line hoping for a good snow.

RAP and HRRR were showing some big totals in my area last night also. You would be safe if you halved that and be pleasantly surprised if it comes in higher.

Mostly a bust around here. Have to go S or E to find snow. Looks like Allegan county fared a little better and then much better around the Kalamazoo, Three Rivers and Paw Paw area.

So the one you didn't clear has more snow than the combined measurements from the one you did?

Going back to the previous thread there was a discussion on 12" storms. Here is GRR's numbers on that from their afternoon AFD. One other point I want to make is, looking at our climate data for frequencies of a foot or more of snow at Kalamazoo, Battle Creek and Jackson, getting a foot or more from midnight to midnight is a rare event. At Jackson, since 1944, there have been only 3 such events, 16 inches in March 1973 being the greatest, and 14 inches in in late January 1978 (blizzard of 78 fame) and early January in 1999. For Kalamazoo, the record as 18 inches in the blizzard of 1978, then there was 16 inches in December 1907, and 13 inches in mid January of 1979. Our grid point snow total is 12.5 inches for Jackson, 11.7 for Kalamazoo and 12.3 for Battle Creek. If this actually happens it would be a top 4 event for all 3 of these sites.

GRR finished a cold January reporting at least a T of snow on 23 days. Not a bad month to follow up on a horrendous December.

What are all these short range models picking up on that the global models are missing?

Allegan county looks better than Ottawa so maybe you will get your wish.

With this storm what is good for you invariably helps me since that means north. I am rooting for you also.

@michsnowfreak the NAM says you better turn your magnet back on or this will be too far south for DTW to cash in on the big snows.

How many think the snow totals will come down as the event gets closer or will it stay with the ridiculously high numbers the models are showing?

I really hope GRR has to eat a little crow on this one. NAM says GRR is maybe back in business after watching is drift south for the last few days. Would like to see a few more models arrive at the same solution for my area, but someone somewhere is going to get a nice snowstorm out of this.

At least the 12z GFS is keeping us from saying congrats Kentucky. Maybe we can settle on a track with only minor variations sometime before 24 hours out.

I was in 1st grade living in SE Ohio. I remember the relentless wind. We started on the warm side so not as much snow as many but it was still wild.

The NAM 3KM says no so fast to those large totals. I would hate to be a met out there right now.

Enjoy your taste of winter.

Nice to see you back.

Wow, the NAM is pretty much a swing and a miss for most of the NE.

If we are cherry picking our models, then I will take the 12Z Canadian please