WestMichigan

GRR with the medium-long range tease. I think we all know how this will end though. We are looking at yet another system on Wednesday into Thursday that could become interesting. We have another southern stream system that will be lifting up to our south. At the same time, a northern stream trough will be diving in across the Midwest. How these systems interact with each other will dictate everything. If they phase, we could be looking at a bigger storm. If they come in separate, they will not be as impactful.

Unfortunately you are correct.

Still have to wait a few weeks for sunrises to follow

There are a few of us downwind of the Great Lakes enjoying this winter so far. I am over 20" for the winter after last night.

Definitely depends on where you live. The snow belt regions are doing OK. I understand inland it is a different story but I don't think anyone in Buffalo, Erie, or even Gaylord would say, "another weak December snow wise."

From space weather.com where they had a similar picture today - “Note the flared tops. That's what's unusual. Ordinary light pillars shoot straight into the sky with pointy tips. The V-shaped tops of these pillars are extremely rare. The vast majority of light pillars are caused by ice crystals that look like tiny microscopic plates. However, ice crystals floating around the Rovaniemi airport were not little plates; instead, they were little pencils. Pencil-shaped ice crystals create the flare. To see the shape, common crystal plates must be absent. No one knows where they went! So there is an element of mystery, as well.”

The last couple days salvaged the Fall snowfall for GRR.

Depending on the wind either you or I should be able to take advantage of the lake assuming the cold materializes.

I-80/90 and would be a total disaster if that happens.

I am in one of those microclimates also. 33.8°F is my lowest so far this fall while everywhere around me has been into the upper 20's so far.

Pivotal Weather also has the ECMWF out to 360. Looks like everyone has picked up on the change.

I grew up there and still have several family members living there. It is crazy dry down there. Wells are running dry, smaller creeks have stopped flowing, the cracks in the hard clay ground are exactly what you would think of when you think of dry western scenes. Many trees basically didn't turn color, they just lost their leaves. I know of farmers that didn't bother harvesting corn because it would cost more to harvest than they would get out of it. They just turned it under and are hoping for crop insurance to help out until they can plant next spring. It is everything you would imagine severe drought would look like in an area that doesn't normally experience those conditions.

Complete whiff here, but GRR did manage to get 0.02". Everything split and went north or south of here. I am picking up some drizzle this morning from the lake.

It has been a windy last couple of days. Had a peak gust of 44 yesterday and 51 so far today.

Muskegon County hanging on for dear life.

From one side of the state to the other. This was last night's view near me.

Greenfield Village?

39° at my house on top of a hill this morning and about a half mile away at the bottom of the hill my car read 34°. Small change in location make a large difference on clear nights that radiate well.

Looks like one spot in the UP is on the boards with 0.1" of snow.

Not a great show last night, but I did manage to get a couple of ok pics.

Nice to finally see some precipitation showing up. Yeah, it is the GFS but hopefully after weeks of dryness it is on to something.

Play the time lapse backwards and you can see some cool shots.

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 10-Oct 12 2024 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct 12 00-03UT 2.00 7.67 (G4) 5.33 (G1) 03-06UT 2.67 8.00 (G4) 5.00 (G1) 06-09UT 1.67 7.33 (G3) 4.67 (G1) 09-12UT 2.00 6.67 (G3) 4.33 12-15UT 4.67 (G1) 6.33 (G2) 4.33 15-18UT 6.67 (G3) 6.33 (G2) 5.33 (G1) 18-21UT 8.33 (G4) 6.00 (G2) 4.67 (G1) 21-00UT 7.67 (G4) 5.33 (G1) 4.33 The 3 hour window from 1200 - 1500 UT averages out to 3.33 right now so if anything it is either smaller or later than expected.

Looks like around sunset and again around 11:00PM EDT are supposed to be the peaks. A high KP most of the night would indicate a good chance of seeing something tonight.

120,000+ without power now in Florida. That is going to be a very large number by morning.